"Oh, I'm sure we're completely safe" Charles Grodin - Midnight Run

Tech, media and telecom stocks are trading at new post-tech bubble high P/E while the rest of the S&P 500 is sitting near 5-year avg. Consensus sees TMT earnings growth slowing as the rest pick up momentum. This could spark a sentiment shift toward lagging groups in 2026.

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The S&P 500's 36-month rolling return has crossed into extreme territory, nearing 2 standard deviations above norm in September. Here's what happened after extremes in rolling returns historically.

For the 1st time since '21, and 16th since 1930, stocks trailing 3-yr return topped 1.5 std devs above average. The more extreme the deviation, the lower return prospects, according to history, with 2 std dev moves affiliated with avg 12M forward -3% and median -9%.

Thanksgiving week normally kicks off a period of positive seasonality in stocks, in part because the U.S. consumer rarely disappoints during the holiday season. But high market expectations for recovery in 2026 may be tough for the consumer to overcome in the year ahead.

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The unemployment rate has been on the rise since mid-2023, and now at 4.4%, is 60 basis points above its record low reached more than two years ago.  There is no other instance in history since 1960 in which the unemployment rate rose for two years outside of recession.

International stocks are on their way to their first year of outperforming domestic stocks since 2017, and strengthening earnings, discounted valuations, and dollar depreciation may all continue to make the case for global shares to perform well into 2026.

The US consumer pain is real. All time low levels of real income growth expectations across every major income category reached this year.

1/2 Over the last 50 years of gold trading (gray lines), 2025 (blue) has only seen one better year, 1979 (green).

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Aggregate hours worked in the US private sector is down over the past three months. Productivity surge or a looming recession?

ICYMI in a big way.

JUST IN: The US now has more unemployed people than job openings for the first time since April 2021

Remind me again whether aggressive Fed cuts in response to weak growth are a good or bad time for stocks?

The Fed usually starts cutting rates before a recession begins. Will this time be different?

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The one fly in the ointment for the bullish momentum are the seasonals, which will remain weak until mid-October. These types of indicators always come with the “all else being equal” caveat, but in this case the seasonal dip is complemented by a dip in the presidential

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The period of bearish seasonality is just getting started. The first half of August is flat on average, and the downward part of that overall bearish month comes in the second half of the month. Beware, though, because big news events can throw prices off the scheduled path.

Beyond the direction of the S&P 500 index, there is much to be celebrated for equity bulls and asset allocators. As the periodic table shows below, the pond is full of fish right now. Beyond the Mag 7, both developed and emerging equities are participating in this bull market,