Benoit Mandelbrot
@BigMandelbrot
Followers
722
Following
27K
Media
3K
Statuses
12K
Long-term societal trends
center
Joined August 2019
Decline of Western Civ in Europe Will German average IQ decline by 10 points over the next 50 years? Assumptions are quite reasonable according to recent trends.
4
11
76
The one thing where per capita actually is irrelevant must be the matter leftists discover and defend the concept. Sweet.
@maybeKonsti The one thing where per capita actually is irrelevant must be the matter leftists discover and defend the concept. Sweet.
1
0
3
Yes! So you want to take out a $400k loan, Mr Gupta. How high is your income? Everyone understands that this is a very relevant question.
Totally fine to compare stocks to flows, we do it all the time — ie a price to earnings ratio, or debt to GDP ratio — don’t know where this aversion comes from
0
0
0
"Junk food" is mostly fine, McDonald's is mostly fine, ultra-processed food is mostly fine. Associations between bad health outcomes and these things are mostly not causal.
It’s way more important to lose body fat than it is to eat healthy, nutritious foods. Being lean eating junk food is healthier than being fat eating organic whole foods.
2
0
14
Race Differences in Schizophrenia: "African-origin populations have higher rates of diagnosed schizophrenia than those of European origin in the large majority of studies, both in the United States and in Europe."
15
62
466
Interesting, but papers without indicating CI in these graphs shouldn't be accepted. What are these graphs for anyway?
Are left-handers or right-handers smarter? A study of >10,000 children in the UK has the provocative answer. In this sample, southpaws and right-handers differed in a few important ways ways. Lefties were more likely to be: ➡️Male ➡️White ➡️Children of mothers with higher levels
0
0
0
True
Neat! Although people with higher IQs do tend to drink more, they're less likely to be alcohol abusers. There's a practically linear negative relationship between genetically predicted IQ and the risk of alcohol use disorder:
0
1
2
Walked into a fire salamander. He looked at me and froze, allowing me to take some pictures. Among the many accomplishments of the fire salamander are: Amphibian of the year 2016 and cave animal of the year in Germany and Switzerland in 2023.
0
0
4
Angry White Men "they passed laws MAKING IT ILLEGAL to promote young white men no matter how well they perform, and MANDATING that do nothing women, and insufferable minorities get promoted AHEAD of them And then the boomers call you a sexist, racist, loser if you complain"
"Another year and then you'll be happy Just one more year and then you'll be happy But you're crying, you're crying now" The modern economy is the enshrinement of the Gerry Rafferty's nightmare for the majority of young white men. For decades the boomers have promised "Just
0
0
0
Would have naively expected larger % weight reductions with higher starting BMI. However, for Ozempic, the effect seems to be constant, and for Tirzepatide, the opposite seems to happen.
The FDA has approved six different drugs for the treatment of obesity. The drugs they're approving these days keep getting safer and more effective. The latest drugs are the safest and they lead to the largest weight loss!
0
0
0
The Social Security Trustees suffer from the same bias as the UN fertility projections. Why? - They adopt the UN method based on authority. - There is an established method among demographers that leads to this bias in independently working institutions. https://t.co/FwGWRHiZYo
Fertility rates are way below what the Social Security Trustees projected in both 2000 and 2010. And yet they have barely updated their long-run forecast. What's the best argument for the plausibility of their forecast?
0
0
1
Retatrutide administered to everyone with a BMI above 30 would reduce obesity by 82% in the US.
What if we want even more extreme than that and used retatrutide? Retatrutide is a GLP-1RA that beats tirzepatide but hasn't yet been approved, but it's coming. If we gave it out like candy for the obese, we'd see a staggering 82% reduction in obesity!
20
33
555
Gammler – was sind das eigentlich für Menschen? Genau beantworten kann diese Frage wohl niemand. Eins aber weiß man: Sie sind nicht gerade eine Zierde Berlins. https://t.co/WRx42tXG95
0
0
1
What explains the black–white homicide gap? "These evolutionary pressures over time foster people who are willing to take large risks, including risky violence, in order to attempt to improve their chances."
@RealJarTaylor I think that the distal cause for the high Black violence is polygamy. Blacks have a polygamous family structure. Polygamy means that the individual man has higher risk and higher reward. Some men will mate with five women and some with none. That means that it's
0
0
0
For Oktoberfest, I nominate Didl as an invented tradition.
"Traditional" Italian cuisine mostly consists of fairly recently invented food. What are other examples of invented traditions?
0
0
2
20% of the brain’s dry weight is made up of LCPUFAs that were once in mom’s butt & thighs. our evaluative psychology likely evolved to prize women’s gluteofemoral fat because it is a probabilistically valid indicator of a woman’s ability to build babies with high-quality brains.
Throughout their lives, women extract from the foods they eat certain fatty acids, including long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFAs). LCPUFAs are preferentially stored in gluteofemoral fat (much more so than in eg abdominal fat). Then, during pregnancy, these LCPUFAs are
0
0
3
List of 100 intergenerational cultural clashes. 1. Waltz scandal (1800s, Europe) — close partner dancing deemed indecent → ballroom standard. Winner: Youth 2. Polka craze backlash (1840s–50s) — “vulgar” energy → salon staple. Youth
OK, I tried again, but this time asked for a sample of 100 conflicts. Score: Young 96, Old 1, Mixed 3.
0
0
2
Assassins are not what they used to be. - Trump shooter used unmagnified red dot. - Kirk shooter appeared in front of cameras with his face and distinct clothing. - ICE shooter "intended to maximize lethality against ICE personnel" but shot migrants.
BREAKING: Acting U.S. Attorney Nancy Larson reads multiple notes left by the Dallas ICE shooter clearly revealing his motive. This was more left-wing terrorism: “I want to point out that one of these notes or papers, the sniper explicitly states, ‘Yes, it was just me.’”
1
0
0
N4sis ok, but wow, now they are letting even the Italians back on YouTube.
ANNOUNCEMENT: Please go subscribe to @NickJFuentes and @RealAlexJones on YouTube (I know crazy right?) They just came back to YouTube and are ALREADY shadow banned! If YouTube decides to ban them again after saying they are reinstating accounts terminated for political
0
0
0
"The small army of archaeologists, economists and other social scientists who work with Turchin on that gargantuan task of translation is convinced that this problem is tractable, and that such quantification will reveal patterns in history." I don't trust Turchin with that task
0
0
0
It was war that made us “ultrasocial”, ... ratcheting up the size and complexity of those collectives until they became the states and empires that existed on the eve of the Industrial Revolution ... Ultrasociality was the secret of survival in this perpetual arms race ...
"Turchin sets out to answer … why, over the past 10,000 years … small collectives of foragers & farmers grew by seven orders of magnitude to become the societies familiar to Cortés and his Aztec adversary, Moctezuma II. His answer, depressingly & paradoxically, is war."
1
0
0