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Cubs+Giants breakdowns | I like making graphs
Joined February 2024
If you are an #SFGiants fan, you may be wondering if these guys you may have never heard of are a good return for one of the most dependable relievers in the game, and fan favorite, Tyler Rodgers. Let's break down who these guys are, and if the Giants made the right move (🧵)
And the Mets paid a very hefty price for Tyler Rogers: right-hander José Butto, outfield prospect Drew Gilbert and right-handed pitching prospect Blade Tidwell are headed to San Francisco, a source said. @Joelsherman1 had the full return.
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Jed is alive and well. Bregman brings good pullside pop and one of the best approaches in baseball, aswell as well above average defense at third. His 19.8% chase rate was good for 8th in the league last year.
Third baseman Alex Bregman and the Chicago Cubs are in agreement on a five-year, $175 million contract, sources tell ESPN. One year after their failed pursuit of Bregman in free agency, the Cubs land one of the biggest bats of the winter.
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Arbitration in MLB is so fascinating because the best pitcher in baseball either obliterates the arbitration record by $13 million, or the Tigers pull the biggest heist in the last decade. Either way he’s not coming back next year
Two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal filed for a $32 million salary this year while the Detroit Tigers countered at $19 million, sources tell ESPN. The $13 million spread is by far the largest in salary-arbitration history and sets up for a fascinating hearing in February.
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I absolutely love this deal for the #Cubs. Caissie is great, but is expendable, and Christian Hernandez shows promise but is 22 and hasn't made it past High A. Cabrera is coming off the best year of his career and has a very well rounded arsenal, with an elite changeup.
TRADE 🚨 The Cubs are trading their No. 1 prospect, OF Owen Caissie, plus two more prospects to the Marlins in exchange for RHP Edward Cabrera, per multiple reports
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Return headlined by Matt Shaw to open up a spot for Alex Bregman?
BREAKING: Cubs are finalizing a deal to acquire SP Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins.
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The #Cubs have just traded for electric right-hander Edward Cabrera. He's got a deep repertoire with plenty veto. He has 3 years of club control, and will immediately headline the Cubs rotation. The return has yet to be announced, but expect a huge package, maybe Shaw/Ballesteros
BREAKING: Cubs are finalizing a deal to acquire SP Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins.
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Additions to the Team USA pitching staff in the last 2 days and their 2025 ERA: - Nolan McLean (2.06) - TARIK SKUBAL (2.21) - David Bednar (2.30) - Mason Miller (2.63) - Logan Webb (3.22) - Joe Ryan (3.42) - Clay Holmes (3.53) By FAR the greatest pitching staff ever assembled
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This is a guy with a sky-high ceiling, and I think the reward is worth the risk given his injury history. If you enjoyed this thread, follow for more, as the school semester winds down I will be rolling out with more targets for the #Cubs this massive offseason!
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Fairbanks is pretty well known for his 4 seamer/gyro combo, but what intrigues me the most about him is the cutter he added at the end of the year. The shape looks good, and the limited results back it up. It's a textbook bridge pitch that will be crucial to him next year.
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#4: Pete Fairbanks, RHP The biggest name on this list, Fairbanks is now a free agent after the Rays declined his $11 million option. Fairbanks has a colorful injury history, including two TJ's and a nerve issue in 2024, but I think he's got a little left in the tank for 2026.
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I could see him sneak his way into a high leverage role, and while the style isn't sexy by any means, the results are there, with 99th percentile average EV and 74th percentile xERA. This is definitely a huge candidate for a one year deal for around $3-5 million.
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#3: Caleb Ferguson, LHP The lefty bounced around a few teams last year, but his underlying metrics are very interesting. He limits hard contact at an excellent rate and has great stuff. His sinker is elite, with a 2.5 run value per 100 pitches and a 118 stuff+ to back it up.
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His biggest issue is his 4 seamer got obliterated this year, and it's easy to see why. He pounded it middle-middle, and the shape is not great. But, his slider and changeup both have plus movement and his sinker can suffice if he commands it well, like he did last season.
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#2: Taylor Clarke, RHP Clarke was Non-Tendered by the Royals this November after a very solid 2025 showing. In 55 innings he had a 3.25 ERA, but I think he can be around the 3.00-3.10 level with some minor tweaks. He's got a really good slider, and a solid sinker/changeup combo.
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#1: Dauri Moreta, RHP Recently Non-Tendered by the Pirates, Moreta is a 29 year old right hander. Moreta has a slider that is very intriguing, as seen in the video below. It's got legit results, with a 22.8% swinging strike rate and a good zone rate even coming off a torn UCL.
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With MLB free agency in full swing, here are some under the radar arms that I think the #Cubs should go after to bolster depth in the bullpen and make a run for it next October.
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Trying to get into python and how to use it for models and analysis stuff in baseball. What are some of the best accounts/resources/tips any analysts out there have?
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This homer from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a launch angle of just 24 degrees. His average launch angle on home runs this year was an unreal 25 degrees, lowest of any hitter with atleast 20 homers. He is a back spin demon! #WorldSeries #LightsUpLetsGo
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This homer from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today had a launch angle of just 24 degrees. His average launch angle on home runs this year was an unreal 25 degrees, lowest of any hitter with atleast 20 homers. He is a back spin demon! #WorldSeries #LightsUpLetsGo
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Imagine being Bo Bichette or Alejandro Kirk literally sitting in the dugout watching a full game of baseball go bye without you and there’s nothing you can do about it #WorldSeries
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