Opinion Haver
@AsInMarx
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he/him Queer socialist who's interested in elections but understands the need for mass politics. Abolish and prosecute ICE. ACAB. I'm part of a newsletter.
Washington, DC
Joined January 2017
regardless of the election’s results it’s obvious this country has gotten way more rightwing especially amongst men and i think a lot of that is what is fed to us online, we have to figure out a way to stop every dude under 35 from turning into crypto hitler
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This is a huge blow for any Marxian theory of political economy btw
intense anti-incumbency backlash to inflation has been a global story for all the 2024 elections but you can't really see big electoral dividends from US outperformance on GDP/ investment/ employment/ wages
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It's also like, easily one of the most common stories around the world right now
The overall story, so far: Nothing here looks like a story of various campaign decisions or a VP choice or big set piece speeches. It's an electorate mad at the incumbent WH's record and expressing it pretty uniformly everywhere, blue and red states alike.
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This is worse than 2016 because people have lived through this shit for a decade and decided fuck it, Arby's being $5 is all that matters. This is an evil fucking country man and it doesn't even deserve the small cushion a Dem house might provide
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Trump’s first win felt like an aberration, like America was just in a petulant mood. This feels a lot darker. I don’t know if we come back from this one
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The issue of a red mirage is, the finished counties are still showing rightward shifts.
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Oconee County, Georgia (sub/exburban to Athens) has now counted all of its votes. Trump improved his margin there from 33.5% to 35.9%. His raw vote margin increased from 8,435 to 9,808.
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"Dems held onto their 2016/2020 gains with white suburbanites, but bleed out with white and non-white working class voters simultaneously because of inflation" is one of the bad outcomes I was really, really hoping we'd manage to avoid.
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For all the "but what about Hamilton County" responses when I said the suburbs weren't improving: as they've counted eday Trump has done better, he's now at 4.4% ahead. Even if he doesn't quite manage to finish at his old 6.8% margin, that's still basically the same.
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Oh goodie, and the philly turnout surge may not have been real after all https://t.co/m5xvTyW0hY
The polls are closed! I'll leave the tracker running for you to get in your last submissions. But let's consider this our ~final estimate. The tracker thinks we landed just above 2020 turnout (confidence interval is 713,000 - 979,000). Thank you all for a wild ride.
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If you want to say there are more Dem votes hiding out there in mail or whatever, fine, but Trump is 5k votes ahead of his 2020 total and harris is 16k behind biden. that's a problem when this is the kind of county that's supposed to counteract rural swings.
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Like, either this is a tabulation error or Harris is in serious trouble and has to hope that the massive rural swings from the south and new england are just not quite enough to flip MI, PA, and WI
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Okay, you know what, yeah, actually worried. Loudoun County should not be like this at all. Turnout higher than 2020, mail and EV in, sitting at a 9% swing to Trump (Biden 25% to Harris 16%) right now.
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Rural swings towards Trump are larger than I thought and I'm not seeing anything conclusive from the suburbs that point to a countervailing swing. That's really all I was thinking about, I did not expect some of you to treat me like I was on suicide watch over this.
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Remember, if you’re in line to vote before the polls close at 8pm, STAY IN LINE. You can still cast your ballot. If you see or experience anyone making it harder to vote, call the @MinnesotaDFL Voter Protection Hotline at (833) 335-8683.
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Merriwether county (rural): 63.0% white and 26.8% Black EV+AB. Coming in at 64.3% Trump to 35.4% Harris.
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