Andy Scollick
@Andy_Scollick
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PhD sustainability science | climate change, energy transition, security and defence | strategic defence planning and foresight | 🇮🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺
Hell in a handcart
Joined December 2015
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For the first time in 8 years, I have zero contact with any of my friends in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They are all at battle stations, so to speak, and all private communications are - rightly - out of bounds. God help them.
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Anyone else have the gut feeling that the next 24-48 hours are going to change history?
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Prediction or, rather, hypothesis: Putin will be assassinated by his own people within the next 7 days
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I've never heard so much bullshit in once place at one time, ever.
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If only Ukraine had the capabilites to strike military targets in Moscow!
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The moment Russian Armed Forces cross overtly into Ukraine (they have been in Ukraine covertly since 2014) every Western country in the world should immediately close every Russian embassy and consulate, escort all their staff to an airport and deport them.
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Germany🇩🇪 is the world's fourth largest arms exporter. It is fuelling war in the Middle East. Yet Germany refuses to sell defensive weapons systems to Ukraine🇺🇦 because it might upset Russia🇷🇺 and affect gas supplies.
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It's time to accept that we, the civilised West, have lost the fight to keep Russia from going to war openly against Ukraine. It's already begun. No more words of "grave concern". It's time to hit Russia everywhere it hurts. Not just in the pocket.
#MSC2022
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1000% increase in Kremlin troll activity in the last 6 hours from what I can
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Whatever comes out this period of crisis, one thing will be certain: by courting Tsar Putin, both Macron and Scholz have shot European unity in the foot. No eastern European country will ever trust France and Germany again, on anything.
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A previous photo of the kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska🇺🇦 hit this morning by 🇷🇺Russian Occupation shelling. And a photo of the damage to the same room.
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While Russian Armed Forces fire rockets into civilian areas of Ukraine, wounded Russian Prisoners of War are being treated in Ukrainian hospitals. Because Ukraine is civilised and Russia is not.
#StandWithUkraine
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Putin only kept Macron waiting for one and a half hours before the meeting
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Are we about to see Russian propaganda images of tearful babushkas and children boarding buses in occupied Donetsk and being driven to Rostov region? Probably. Will one of those buses be blown up by 'Ukraine' for casus belli? Possibly.
Photos: Aleppo, Syria
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Russia must be brought to its knees like Nazi Germany was in 1945. There is no alternative. Too many people in Russia support the murderous Putin regime.
#StopRussia
"Do you seriously believe that these are Ukrainian missiles inflicting damage on Ukrainian civilians?"
@mattfrei
asks academic Dmitry Suslov how Russia can justify its invasion of Ukraine and the killing of its civilians.
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Violent burglar wants written guarantee from police that homeowners will turn their house alarms off
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"Beautifully, neatly, calmly without fuss rain on the Muscovite tanks. Believe in the Armed Forces." ⚔️🇺🇦💪
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In case anyone had forgotten: Russia holds the Presidency of United Nations Security Council for the month of February.
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The moment Russia strikes Ukraine, we all have a moral duty to destroy Russia by any means (political, economic, military) necessary. You are either with the patriotic democratic West or with Russia. There can be no in between.
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None of what we have seen from Putin over the last few weeks can be described as rational
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"From what I have seen of our Russian friends and Allies during the war, I am convinced that there is nothing they admire so much as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than for weakness, especially military weakness." — Winston Churchill, March 1946
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Putin's been waiting for the cracks to start appearing..
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The prime minister warned that President Putin would face "ferocious" Ukrainian resistance and "many Russian mothers' sons will not be coming home".
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Right now, my friends serving in Armed Forces of Ukraine would like people in Europe and North America to focus on pressing their governments for realistic solutions: more air defence, long-range artillery, UAVs, counter-battery, ammunition. Not unrealistic wild goose chases.
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I've seen dozens of tweets in last couple of days saying "the fate of Ukraine will be decided tonight". The fate of Ukraine is being decided every second. There are firefights and attacks going on across Ukraine literally every second of every day, and will be for weeks, months.
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Javelins, NLAWs, Stingers, Bunker Defeats and other soldier portable weapon systems are all well and good, but what Ukraine really needs are cruise missiles: enough to strike Russian armed forces and defence HQs deep inside Russia.
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I've got a report from someone I know on the scene that Russia is massing artillery east of Kyiv. If correct (I have no reason to doubt it) it bodes ill.
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People aren't getting it. It's like some mass psychosis event, mass denial. If the Russian war against Ukraine escalates to Russia war with NATO, Putin has nothing to lose: it's over for his ambitions, his life. He might as well launch the missiles. Don't people understand this?
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‼️ Russian intercepts of mobile signals provide coordinates that are passed on to artillery teams who direct fire on to their position. "You're getting them killed."
#journalists
Dear Journalists: If you're in contact with Ukrainian security people at the front right now, understand that the Russians have excellent geolocational SIGINT linked with fires. You're getting them killed. Tell them to shut off the phone and focus on the invading Russians.
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The attack on this Turkish merchant vessel complicates the picture: Under the Montreux Convention 1936, Turkey (a NATO member) has control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits and could deny Russian naval vessels passage.
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Chechen military recorded video from Ukraine: "We took one village here, but they knocked us back. I had to retreat. This is not 2014 at all. Now 120 (shell) will come from nowhere. A drone is constantly circling above us."
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The media are repeating the "100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine" trope. It is already 125,000 troops. It is growing and will grow further with the arrival of troops from Russia's Far East and Siberia. US sources are indicating a total mobilisation approaching 300,000 troops.
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Monday morning: an absolute tsunami of bullshit being talked about by Western news correspondents in and about Kyiv. Ukraine is NOT about to make a concession to Russia over joining NATO. And if Zelenskyy did (he won't) he would be lynched from the nearest tree.
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Don't kid yourself. Russia has lost some 700,000 people to Covid (900,000 if excess deaths are considered). Putin hasn't blinked, once. He won't blink either if 250,000 Russian soldiers and paramilitaries are killed for a "glorious victory".
Moscow may think that a large-scale invasion could help it achieve its main objectives – bringing Ukraine into its sphere of influence and preventing its cooperation with NATO.
However, the costs of such an operation may be devastating.
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'Turkey called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "war" on Sunday in a rhetorical shift that could pave the way for the NATO member nation to enact an international pact limiting Russian naval passage to the Black Sea.'
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Heads up: Russian GRU putting around that a Ukrainian sniper wounded a civilians in the Russian-occupied Donetsk area. Another justification for kickoff.
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In memory of Erika Szeles, Hungarian resistance fighter and nurse, killed by invading Soviet troops
#OTD
(7 Nov) in 1956 during the 🇭🇺 Revolution. Born 6 Jan 1941, she was just 15 years old.
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"When I hear some Western commentators saying that NATO’s proximity is a sensitive issue for Putin, I have only one question to ask: Are the lives and future of 44 million Ukrainians not sensitive, too?" -
@DmytroKuleba
Foreign Minister of 🇺🇦
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I'm sorry, but I can no longer retweet anything advocating a No Fly Zone over Ukraine. It could mean the death of billions through nuclear war. Better to focus our energies on getting more and better air defences for Ukraine's Armed Forces to control the skies over Ukraine.
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"So far no shot has been fired, and no border crossed, and that is a good thing," said Luxembourg's foreign minister, Jean Asselborn.
Has he been asleep since Feb 2014 when Russia crossed the border? Russia fires shots at Ukraine every day for 8 years!
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If the Western world doesn't severely up the pain on the Putin regime (and China) in the next 7 days - with preemptive sanctions, political isolation, crippling cyberattacks - we are going to have a war in Europe that will likely spillover Ukraine's borders and escalate widely.
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Those who think a Russia-NATO war is unlikely now. You are correct. However, an upsurge in the existing Russia-Ukraine war is increasingly likely, which in turn increases the likelihood of a Russia-NATO war later, due to spillover and escalation effects.
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Message from the Ukrainian Armed Forces: Would all those policy wonks, scholars and experts who insist that 🇷🇺 has no real intention of invading 🇺🇦 (again) please form an orderly line in the forward trench. Thank you.
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85 hours of defence
It's useless to intimidate Ukrainians
It won't be possible to break our defenders
To force us to surrender the capital - even more so
Extremely difficult hours. But they are a minute
The day after tomorrow is already spring
🇺🇦 will win. It is already winning!
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Ivan has 10,000 armoured vehicles in the field. If Ivan returns 1,000 armoured vehicles to base following exercises, redeploys 2,500 in the field and adds another 1,000 armoured vehicles from the rear, how many armoured vehicles does Ivan have? 🧮
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Nothing I or anyone else can add to this.
@PaulNiland
is someone I admire greatly. My thoughts and prayers are with him, everyone in Kyiv, every patriot in Ukraine.
"I'm not moving on. If I have to join the territorial defence regiments...then that's what I'll do."
@PaulNiland
, a British citizen in Ukraine, says he will stay in the country and is prepared to fight should Russia invade.
@lukejones03
|
@jennykleeman
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Allies? Clearly
@GermanyDiplo
@ABaerbock
& Co have refused
@RoyalAirForce
shipments of NLAWs or whatever through German-controlled airspace, forcing the C-17s to fly around and route over Poland to Ukraine. So much for NATO "friendly" relations
@GermanyNATO
huh?
🚨 BREAKING NEWS | British C-17 transport aircraft are currently ferrying anti-armour weaponry to Ukraine in the face of increasing Russian rhetoric.
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A French President pleading with a Russian necrophiliac that wants to nuke NATO while a German President denies his gas addiction on CNN. Theatre of the Absurd!
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Since 2016, I have participated in three civil-military tabletop exercises in which Kharkiv was a key Russian objective. Each time, the city ended up following a trajectory and outcome somewhere between 'Grozny' and 'Aleppo'. A real mess.
I asked Ukraine’s foreign minister yesterday if his government plans to evacuate Mariupol or Kharkiv given threats facing those cities. He said it’s not the plan, and that still appears to be the case. Their strategy: confront any threat head on. They believe they are prepared.
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I've attempted to reassure and console my friends in Ukraine, including in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kherson and Lviv, today as I have done when necessary since 2014. But I can't find the words anymore. Though I do promise to support them more in whatever little ways I can.
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For all you hopeful (naive) people who think the Normandy Format "ceasefire" has averted war.. Just wait 'til you see what's coming down the track in the next 48 hours.
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Shoigu has just told Putin that a 'minor' was killed at a bus stop by a Ukrainian shell. Lie after lie.
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This whole shitshow is descending into a farce about Macron and Scholz instead of focusing on what really matters: ramping up deterrence measures massively. Unless Western militaries can deploy adequate assets in the next 7-10 days, deterrence will fail. Europe will have its war.
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Military friend of mine hinted that some planning has been going on by a certain big Allied nation into methods of taking out the Nord Stream 2 pipeline should Germany put it into operation during a Russian war in Europe.
#justsaying
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It's a shame I don't get €1 for each Russian troll I block. I'd be rich! 🤑
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Too many analysts saying "we haven't seen military field hospitals", implying that Russia doesn't intend to start a fight. It takes approx 6 to 12 hours to assemble and organise a MASH. Every major exercise has them. If you don't see them, it's because they don't want you to!
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Russia has been waging war on Ukraine since 2014. Now they insist on legal guarantees.. Go to hell!
🚫Escalating a confrontation with Russia is unacceptable. As a pretext, the West is using the situation in Ukraine.
We insist that legal guarantees are provided to exclude
@NATO
’s further advancement to the east & deployment of weapons threatening us.
🔗
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⚠️ While accepting that Russia's Ground Forces are not as capable as we were expecting, there is a danger that we may now underestimate the potential for a change of strategy and tactics to a more brutal and deadly approach, previously used in Chechnya and Syria.
Astounding how poorly prepared
#Russia
's forces were for this war. Before the invasion, there were discussions about how US intel might overestimate their competence. But I never expected to see this many failures.
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