Andrei Kolesnikov
@AndrKolesnikov
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Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Board Member of Gaidar Foundation. RT ≠ endorsement. All views my own. @CEIP_Politika , @carnegiendow
Moscow, Russia
Joined February 2018
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No one asked people during the collapse of the Soviet Union where they wanted to live, Putin said. They were asked: almost 32 million Ukrainians in a legal referendum on Dec. 1, 1991, voted for independence - that's over 90 percent of the population with an 84 percent turnout.
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Like the old Soviet anecdote about the man who threw leaflets on Red Square.
- Why isn't anything written on them?
- What is there to write? It's so clear.
We are living in a dystopia and inside the Soviet anecdote.
В Нижнем девушку задержали за белый лист бумаги.
Это реально Оруэлл
#нетвойне
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The exit of Visa and Mastercard from Russia and the ban on the use of these cards by Russians abroad is the best help to Putin in his main task of isolating Russians from the world. And those who could have escaped political persecution abroad will no longer have this opportunity
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Passive conformity is no less terrible than active and aggressive conformity. The nation follows Putin like the blind leading the blind. My take on Gleichschaltung, Russian style.
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Putin's speech is a set of unbelievably illiterate conspiracy clichés that 30 years ago could be read in marginal national-patriotic newspapers. Now it has become the policy of the former superpower, which even in the days of the Soviet leaders could not afford such a discourse.
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Now the authorities can put her in jail - she has desecrated their Holy Grail, the First Channel.
This is not the act of self-immolation by Jan Palach in 1969, but it is exactly the same in emotion. In Russia of the future, Maria Ovsyannikova will be what Marianne is to France.
Less than two hours after she burst onto the Channel 1 set, Marina Ovsyannikova's Facebook page already has 4,600 comments from people mainly saying "thank you."
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Roskomnadzor demands that Navalny's Youtube channel be blocked. This is unfair competition. And most importantly, a violation of Article 29 of the Constitution on the right to information and the prohibition of censorship. The article has DIRECT effect.
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Putin’s shadow looms large over the French political scene, writes
@SylvieKauffmann
Le Pen’s election, following Viktor Orban’s reelection in Hungary, would provide the Russian leader with a trophy at least as valuable as a military victory in Donbas.
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Russia requests a meeting of the UN Security Council "in connection with the monstrous provocation of Ukrainian radicals in Bucha". They understood that this is the end of the reputation, and how the "denazification" is collapsing. Too late.
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The new chief editor of Vedomosti finally threw out my column. For 14 years, biweekly, I have been writing a column for this newspaper. It's just like 14 years ago Kremlin's guys took over "Izvestia" and kicked out the editors, including me. Kremlin is coming slowly, but steadily
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Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? For if it prosper, none dare call it Treason. John Harington, British poet. THREAD
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Putin's audience nearly sleeps and supports itself with Brezhnev-like applause. A Soviet anecdot:A woman bursts into the minister's office, and demands an apartment: 'I slept with you!'" - "When? Where?" - "At the XXIII Congress: you were in the third row, I was in the fifth"
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My friend was fired from Moscow mayor's office after a forced vote for amendments. He voted against the amendments. Electronically. It turns out that innovations in Moscow are so powerful that authorities could track how you vote. Sobyanin is really the most efficient manager.
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Navalny's reception by the authorities at the airport is the best evidence of how afraid they are of him. They themselves are inflating the importance of Navalny, turning him into academician Sakharov. This disavows Putin's ironic question: "Who needs him?"
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Putin: "The Soviet Union indeed always lived in conditions of sanctions but... achieved enormous success". Enormous? Enormous queues and enormous deficit. Enormous lagging behind the rest of the world - technologically and in labor productivity.
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No, it is not corruption that drives this regime, as Prigozhin claims. Corruption is the regime's mode of existence and, at the same time, the social byproduct it constantly generates. But the regime is driven by the ideas of expansionism and messianism, nationalism, imperialism.
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A great loss: Dimitri Zimin, a man who for years had been helping various civic, above all enlightenment projects, has died. There is probably NO ONE else left in this field in Russia. Last Thursday I saw him as a participant in one of the Zoom meetings...
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Crimea and anti-American sentiment are no longer capable of mobilizing Russians to rally around Putin. The Kremlin, however, cannot bring itself to accept this attentive lapse and will use any adversarial foreign-policy jab to try to fire up its people.
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My text in
@ForeignAffairs
on how Putin has turned everything upside down. He has destroyed all the achievements of recent decades, including his own. Instead of making Russia great again, he has managed to transform his people into a pariah nation.
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The Tuva authorities give a sheep for every mobilized person. They have completely lost the sense of shame - equated people to sheeps. And there is a great truth in it. This is how the Putinists treat the people.
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Gorbachev died in a symbolic way when his life's work, freedom, was effectively destroyed by Putin
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In this sense, there is no difference between Putin and his entourage and Prigozhin. In Andrei Sinyavsky's formula, they have “stylistic differences.” Costing the Russian nation and the world the ongoing catastrophe.
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Brilliant analysis of Putin's mistakes by
@nyberg_ren
There is evidence that the Russian intelligence community including academia have neglected what we can call Ukrainian studies.
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In the new Russia, nearly everyone is fine as long as he or she is not forced into the trenches. My take on Putin's plans, economic background, and public and elites' sentiments as the war nears the end of its fifth month.
Putin’s Captives
How a Ruinous Imperial War Has Strengthened His Rule at Home
www.foreignaffairs.com
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44% participated in the protest for the first time. This is the result of the return of Navalny and the film about Putin's palace
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Stephen Kotkin: Russia's problem has always been not this sense of self or identity but the fact that its capabilities have never matched its aspirations. It’s always in a struggle to live up to these aspirations, but it can’t.
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As part of "denazification," they were going to bomb Odessa. This is like "denazifying" Haifa. Whoever knows Isaak Babel's great lines will understand:
"- Что сказать тете Хане за облаву?
- Скажи: Беня знает за облаву".
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Brave and brilliant
@IlyaYashin
: You are sending hundreds of thousands of Russians into the heat of battle...You are depriving Russians of their home... People are running away from you, Mr. President. Don't you see that?
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Kolesnikov and Volkov said the view, that Putin has the full support of society is incorrect.“Rather than consolidating society, the conflict has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime,” they wrote.
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The institutions of the state are losing their monopoly on violence in two ways - first, by outsourcing these functions, with the result that the outsourcer is pulling away from the motherboard because he feels empowered to do so, and second, by forming unconstitutional law
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1/6 In the long term this could cause resentment, and in the short term it could cause sabotage. Putin is planting a bomb under his own authoritarian stability regime.
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If Xi grants request (for military aid), China would in effect be entering a proxy war with the US and Nato nations. That decision could spell the end for the globalised economic system that has fuelled China’s extraordinary rise over the past 40 years
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and here is a small "focus group" on the streets of Moscow: most justify Putin, call what is happening a preventive strike so that we will not be attacked, believe that there are "Nazis" in Ukraine, and do not believe the bombings. Total blockage of consciousness
Мы показали россиянам фотографии из Украины, на которых видны разрушенные российскими бомбами города и жертвы обстрелов. И вот какая была реакция:
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The purpose of the special operation became known! According to D. Medvedev, it is to defeat Satan/Lucifer/Iblis. It seems we have fallen into the Middle Ages after all, and instead of Marx and Engels we have Dugin and Kadyrov. It's time for Medvedev to read Bulgakov and Rushdie.
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1/2 The decision to partially mobilize is an admission of the failure of a special military operation. The resulting holes are simply plugged with cannon fodder.
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1/3 it is the treatment of the population as biomass. It is no longer a war with the opposition and civil society, but with society itself, with its own male population
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Putin is losing his empire and allies. Achieving yet another goal opposite to what was intended. Armenia without Putin, Kazakhstan without Putin... He will achieve China and India without Putin. Turkey is already without him.
Армения.
Митинг за выход из ОДКБ, люди идут к посольству России и кричат «Армения без Путина».
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According to the Levada Center poll, Western sanctions are hitting those groups that are oriented toward the West, primarily the young. Generally 75% believe that Russia should continue its policy despite the sanctions. That is, politically, the sanctions have the opposite effect
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Putin's executive order from the dystopia: "compile a list of unfriendly foreign states". It is easier to make a shortlist of countries that are "friendly" (Venezuela, North Korea, Belarus, etc.).
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This is the decay of the state - the scarier the state looks, the more successful it is in labeling people and organizations as "foreign agents" and "undesirables," the longer sentences are given to dissenters, the weaker institutionalized the state becomes. integrating.
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Leonid Gozman was detained for comparing Stalin to Hitler. The Russian political regime is Stalinist.
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Belousov was responsible for technological development. The Kremlin believes he will technologize the economy and turn it into a military economy. And the military will pull GDP growth. Star Wars economy. It's essentially Soviet. Which is what the USSR blew up on.
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there is a fundamental weakness inPrig. appeal - people do not want to live like in North Korea (one of Prigozhin's statements), they want to live in the country where they lived as early as February 23, 2022, or even better before New Year's 2022.
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An explanatory film by Kara-Murza Jr. about Nemtsov.Everyone has already forgotten that he was not just a street politician, where Putin pushed him, but the best post-Soviet governor, the first deputy prime minister, and extremely efficient head of the SPS parliamentary faction.
«НЕМЦОВ» — фильм-портрет. О Борисе Немцове — таком, каким он был на самом деле, без официозного вранья и пропагандистских штампов.
Посмотрите.
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What is happening is called an "insurgency," although we should call it an "anti-utopia," something akin to the civil war and the collapse of the state.
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TREAD(short)preliminary conclusions: both sides are ready for the Belorussian scenario;this is not a protest of "children",even youth, the average age in Moscow is around 30 yo;the geography is expanded; Navalny is partially protected from "accidentally"being killed in prison 1/3
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How symbolic were the almost simultaneous deaths of Stanislav Shushkevich and Leonid Kravchuk, who stated the end of the Soviet Union. Thirty years later, the remnants of the Soviet Union are still writhing in agony, provoked by Putin.
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The destruction of the Memorial is my personal drama. Memorial helped in my personal memory war with the Stalinists, finding my grandfather's file, the Last Address project installed a memorial plaque on the house where he was arrested in 1938 (see video).
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Putin’s Stalin Phase. My take on the similarities btw Stalin and Putin. via
@ForeignAffairs
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1/5 It is a violation of the demobilization unwritten contract with the nation: you do not interfere into stealing and fighting, and we do not interfere in your private life.
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The economy is entering a growth trajectory, Putin said today. The gap with reality is total. There is not a single sane economist who could have predicted this. But Putin is happy to deceive himself.
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1/8 Propagandistically, it is a conversion of the status of special operations to the status of war with the collective West.
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Prigozhin is a creature of Putin's system, a flesh-and-blood oligarch who has made his fortune from his ties to the state.
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Beginning a new phase of the war, the cornered Putin is dragging a significant portion of Russians behind him. He has de facto declared war on the domestic front -- not only on the opposition and civil society, but on the male population of Russia.
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Putin, first of all, hits the reputation of the Russian people. This is what is called the "bombing of Voronezh". And the hostages are all Russians, who have not yet understood that their lives will change in a more substantial way than even after 2014.
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1/1 Unfortutanely, can't answer to all the requests. Here I suggest some first thesises.
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1/7 Instead of ending the war, there will be a prolongation of the war. Human resources are being extracted from the economy. More difficult times are coming for the economy. Budget will be destabilized.
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As Thomas Mann said in 1942, "sometimes you realize that you have been at war with Hitler somehow longer than America". Many of my colleagues personally have been at war with Putin since he appeared in August 1999. Longer than those who dare to hold them responsible for him.
I very much admire Estonia for many things. One thing is that the country is very much attached to the rule of law. The more sad it is, when the prime minister is calling for breaking the law. It's something I expect from Orban, not from Kallas. Asylum is a right, not a privilege
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So the indifferent average Russian is more likely to prefer Putin to Prigozhin
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watching the nation sink into a total Gleichschaltung - what a space for the researcher! Even the Soviets did not put a red star on children's cockerels. Putinists prepare cannon fodder from kindergarten.
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The protest is becoming increasingly anti-Putin. From all flanks, left and right (see communist and Empire flags). Navalny's poisoning only contributed to it. Khabarovsk is forming a trend for several years ahead.
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Consistent movement backward - the Foreign Ministry has proposed the withdrawal of Russia from the WTO and the WHO (decisions of the ECtHR are no longer being implemented). From what ruins Russia will have to be restored after today's "elites" initiatives.
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My long-read on Gorbachev. Some points. By giving freedom to the citizens of his country, he relieved the citizens of the rest of the world of fear. And the world responded to the Soviet leader with adoration - Gorbymania. 1/1
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What kind of negotiations we're talking about after that? Lavrov: "Russia didn't attack Ukraine"
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Europeans aren't thinking clearly - they blocked in Europe the main source of alternative information for Russians, Radio Echo of Moscow, because of its connection to Gazprom. The next day, just like the Russian authorities did. What a crazy and illiterate decision.
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that's who the real Russian patriot is.
A fantastic act in the very heart of the regime's frenetic propaganda.
The anti-war protester who crashed the news broadcast is Marina Ovsyannikova, an editor at Channel One, says
@pchikov
, whose legal defense foundation is going to defend her against charges of “discrediting the Russian armed forces.” She’s already at the police station.
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The state’s interest is to hide the real meaning of the historical events of this kind. In their interpretation Russian history is the history of statesmen and military men, not citizens.
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It seems Ekho Moskvy radio is ceasing to exist. They have survived all stages of post-Soviet and even partly Soviet history. BUT they have not survived mature Putinism. This is a very bad sign. The regime is on its way to suicide, but it is pulling us all down into a whirlpool.
Echo of Moscow, Russia's flagship liberal radio station, is shutting down, its editor
@aavst
announces. The station was a symbol of Russia's newfound freedom after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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The assessment of the special operation as "successful" fell by 20% compared to May - from 73% to 53%. Why is it unsuccessful? 27% - it dragged on, 23% - mobilization indicates this, and 22% - we are losing the war.
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There will be no mobilization: it is dangerous to take the sofa troops sitting in front of the TV out of their imaginary comfort zone. The substitute is a decree on assistance to the families of soldiers killed during the "operation". No new ideas in support of the disaster.
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1/4 The recognition of four territories as Russian territories could lead to the transfer of the status of hostilities to the status of war, in which case mass mobilization is possible.
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That's it, Putin lost Kazakhstan.
President of Kazakhstan Tokayev: “In recent days, many people from Russia have been coming to us. Most of them are forced to leave because of the current hopeless situation. We must take care of them and ensure their safety. This is a political and humanitarian issue.
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Prosecutor General's Office has demanded that the websites of the most popular electronic independent media outlets, Echo Moskvy radio and Dozhd TV channel, be blocked. For spreading "fakes" - that is credible information. This is a sign of the authority's hysteria&outrage
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Why the hell would YouTube shut down the Duma channel - it's a self-exposing spectacle. Because of this foolish move, we should get ready to block the last free space in Russia. All from a complete inability to understand what is going on here.
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Putin:"Our soldiers...are fighting for Russia, for a peaceful life for the citizens of Donbass, for the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, so that no "anti-Russia" created by the West will threaten us, including with nuclear weapons, as recently".Lunatic asylum.
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The EU's share of exports from Russia is 41.1%. The EU's share of imports to Russia is 35.4%. What kind of "break" with the EU is Lavrov talking about? The Russian economy will stop without Europe.
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The Kazakh model of transit of authoritarian power did not work. Elections don't reflect the real situation. "The national leader" turned into an "old man, go away". A socio-economic protest of the "deep people" converted into a political one. No attention to concessions.
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Some misunderstanding. What is surprising and symptomatic is NOT what Boris Nadezhdin says - he is a bit forgotten liberal and pro-Western politician - but that he was invited to Putin's television.
Incredible change of tone on Russian state TV. Surprising implicit push back on Putin’s disaster in Ukraine.
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I apologize for the auto-citation. But 21 years ago in my column "Tea with Putin" I compared Putin to Mussolini and suggested that he would build a Mussolini-like state. It was obvious ALREADY then. But not to our liberal establishment.
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My article on the political, psychological, and economic causes of the obedience of a part of the Russians. And about the resistance to Putin inside and outside the country that undeservedly goes unnoticed.
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To the question of ordinary Russians' "knowledge" of history.The deputy commander of the Central Military District, who is ready to fight in Moldova: "We are at war with the whole world, as it was in the Great Patriotic War, all Europe, the whole world was against us." No allies!
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The military operation is perceived by many Russians as a second pandemic - you just have to endure it and everything will be as it was before. My text on the routinization of war.
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Could Putin’s inner circle now be facing a new Race of the Lafets, like in the early 80s (In Russian, lafet means funeral carriage)? My article on the decay of Russian society and the state
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"Memorial" received the Nobel Peace Prize: there is no organization more important to Russia, an organization that preserves authentic national memory. It is no coincidence that Putin's siloviki first destroyed "Memorial"; after destroying the memory they could start the invasion
Нобелевскую премию мира присудили Мемориалу. Пресс-конференцию даём сегодня у Тверского суда, в 12:50, Каланчёвская 43А.
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Putin now regrets not only the disruption of the USSR but also the Russian Empire. Imperial thinking is one of the basic features of Putin himself and the Russian establishment. This explains a lot.
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One of the most famous anecdotes from the stagnation era: "Question: Who is Leonid Brezhnev? Answer: A petty political figure from the era of Alla Borisovna Pugacheva". Putin became another petty politician of her era.
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Volodin proposed to withdraw citizenship for statements against a special operation. This is the pure practice of totalitarian (not authoritarian) states. The problem is that by doing so, Volodin blatantly violates the Russian Constitution.
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The Navalny case exposed not just the degradation, but the collapse of institutions. For example, the institution of the court. And the institution called the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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After 7 days of work, the magazine, produced by the Novaya Gazeta team, was blocked by the authorities. But it is possible to read via VPN and from abroad. Here is my article about the "clinical ideology" of Putinism.
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Putin, celebrating the 350th anniversary of Peter the Great's birth, is confused about history again. Peter the Great has opened a window to Europe, Putin is hammering it up with rotten planks from the time of Ivan the Terrible.
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Putin is divided, like Stevenson's character. The emotional element (Edward Hyde) in him is stronger than the rational (Dr. Jekyll). The 2014 scenario repeats itself. Only the rally around the flag will not be repeated.
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"Direct Line with Putin" is a demonstration of the picture of a poor country. And Putin needs this poor population to demonstrate that he is irreplaceable: only he can fix the roof and fix the gas. Other institutions do not work.Putin has an interest in the maintenance of poverty
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THREAD.
REHEARSAL of 1937 in 2020. Voting for eternal Putin was a signal for siloviki and for political verdicts and arrests. Today, searches have been carried out on municipal deputy Yulia Galamina and media representatives of Khodorkovsky.1/4
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Kremlin’s mistake was to underestimate Navalny’s level of support. When people saw what was happening to Navalny live on TV [Dozhd], and then the film [about Putin's palace], it provided a strong emotional impulse for them to take to the streets
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During Russia’s transition from authoritarianism to hybrid totalitarianism, Mr. Putin and his elite inner circle have colonized civil society and built a system of repression. This is not a sign of strength, but of desperation. My take on the mutiny in NYT
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financial pressure from the West and the feeling that there is no place to go from the submarine have turned the Politburo and the rest of the oligarchy and political class into hard-line Putin supporters. My piece in
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Kiriyenko called for the "people's war". Who are these "people" and how many villas and yachts must they have for the right to be considered "the people"? The war has already become, in Goebbels' terms, a total war, but that is not enough for Kiriyenko.
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The police raped with dumbbell the activist Kamardin, who was reciting poetry on Mayakovsky Square. I wonder what the Prosecutor's Office, which "protects" human rights and Valera Fadeev, head of the Presidential Human Rights Council, think about this?
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History must preserve the names of prosecutor Loktionov and judge Podoprigorov, who issued Stalinist-like sentence (no such terrible sentences were issued against dissidents under the later Soviet leaders) to the real hero of Russia Volodya Kara-Murza.
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This is the worst year in post-Soviet history. It’s the same regime we have had for many years, but it’s much more repressive and much more cruel.
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