'Misnaming things only adds to the misery of the world,' this sentence was written by Albert Camus. This is what I had in mind when I was reading the commentary about the repo market this week. 'Bankruptcy,' 'Failure,' 'Crisis... None is accurate. Let's have a repo review : 1/N

https://t.co/RRKzou2EaW MAGA 🙃

I think since 2022 there is too much procyclicity. It is a real sign that there is a greater entropy that we might think. Add to that the overconfidence of policymakers, and you have some weak signals that may remind you some recent pasts events that we would prefer to avoid.

Last but not least, you can look 1m forward OIS on X maturities, or idk which expected cuts proxy. There are some insights ofc, but i keep thinking about this zoltan sentence : it is a geopolitical driven market era. Realpolitik is leading the dance.

I am a bit skeptical about some monetary policy expected paths, as well as the supposed effect of the fed BS expansion. Excess liquidity assets were very responsive of fallen collateral velocity, but not so much rates volatility nor credit spreads. Weird innit ? Hidden fragility

Lot of stimulus will occur, a sign that the global economy will be in contraction. Japan QT, Chinese cny appreciation, Monroe Doctrine, war ... I expect more local demand driven policies, in a context of tighter liquidity. The fallacy of IR by friedman was a good point after all

When you are looking several measures of UST/EGB such as ASW or FX hedged, you can decently think that liquidity is definitely not good. My 2c, the aggressive US bills issuance, among other things, has dangerously hidden severe market broken structures. 2026 will be tough

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Forget the far right. The kids want a "United States of Europe." https://t.co/kDbWyhf8mS

I was right on the effect of mon pol, tighter liquidity, but wrong on the collateral shortage. There is no demand for duration from the world, there is a need to repurchase your shorts from the local shadow banking system (specialness).

Souvent j'apelle ma famille et mes amis en France pour avoir des nouvelles. Et ce que j'entend me rapelle les temoignages que je lisais sur la chute de l'URSS. Depression, chomage, aucune perspective, volonté de fuir. Catastrophique.

Trump: Interest rates should be 1% or lower a year from now - WSJ.

My mentality each day We are for the beautiful game Joga Bonito 🤙

MAGA will destroy all the counter powers to give a chance to their reindustrialisation plan, fed independance with it. It is a very risky shot, glorious success or painful death, but 2 thing are sure, control leads to more control, and far right is never an ally of liberty.

MAGA will suffer with the Monroe Doctrine. They can't import safe asset demand anymore, and they can't fuel the shadow banking leverage to boost asset prices ad vitam eternam. Monetization from the FED will boost liquidity premium and agravate the need for more political control

Markets are understanding terribly badly the FED policy. They are doing a policy mistake through the liquidity point of view. The street will understand it through the hard way

Nos pseudos elites locale sont incapable d'un plan aussi intelligent. Le drame c'est que ce soit l'extreme droite qui le mette en oeuvre.

Deregler les banques, forcer la fed a racheter des emprunts pour fournir le cash qu'ils auront besoin et financer la réindustrialisation avec.. nan franchement j'applaudis. Ca veut pas dire que le plan global va marcher, mais ils sont beaucoup plus smart que on le pense.

Quand je reflechis au plan de MAGA je suis surpris de sa sophistication. Roller la dette d'état vers des emprunt a tres court terme, forcer la fed a baisser les taux en s'en battant les couilles de l'inflation et faire fondre par la les couts d'emprunts 1/2

https://t.co/yfc1HuJgUY Piste interessante pour des facteurs plus idiosyncratique, mais toujours relié au point de la liquidité globale

I believe that BTC is an excess liquidity asset, which is related to money market through the bills/stablecoins channel. Repo vol -> Risk premium -> Crypto valo Index rely on foreigners/leverage ! Crypto rely on intermdiation capacity ? Papers to come in 2026, Inch'Allah!