AP Research
@AlphaPicks
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Global macro perspectives and multi-asset strategy.
London
Joined August 2021
Do markets keep fading the noise, or is the signal getting louder?. Our thoughts, commentary, and a few ideas for the week ahead.
alphapicks.co.uk
Do markets keep fading the noise, or is the signal getting louder?
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RT @AlphaPicks: “Mommy, how did daddy get so rich?”. “He ran a low-beta spread trade, printed 2%, then told people without an ISDA to stay….
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“Mommy, how did daddy get so rich?”. “He ran a low-beta spread trade, printed 2%, then told people without an ISDA to stay in their lane.”
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Nothing like an approaching tariff deadline to awaken Lutnick’s inner main character.
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Vol is sticky into the election window, but there are still ways to express a view without overpaying. Looking at a 2-week USDJPY 149–152 call spread… capped upside, defined risk, and avoids vega crush. Max 3:1 payoff.
Ahead of Japanese elections this weekend, and with U.S. rate uncertainty, short-dated #JPY options have risen sharply in price. JPY/USD options expiring on Monday (MJ3N5) imply a weekend breakeven of ~0.85%, and the 1w expiry (SJ4N5) implies a 7 day breakeven of ~1.3%.
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Max Long topping the Bloomberg leaderboard. The cycle gods are playing with us now.
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Had a little conversation with Le Shrub (@agnostoxxx) about all things TACO, GAG, and how he’s positioned in markets. Linked below.
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Yesterday’s Powell headline (and the quick walk-back) felt like Trump testing the market’s pain tolerance, and by extension, his own. Yields up and dollar down was expected. The equity wobble hit a nerve. The Trump put still has a strike.
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The dollar bounce rolls on. 50dma is the test now.
Even consensus trades pause.
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RT @lord_fed: Most traders don’t lose on bad ideas. They lose on bad execution. Part 1 was the map, this is the manual. Zero to Stock Her….
lordfed.co.uk
Part II
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RT @conksresearch: new sub post up: The Great Rebalancing.
conks.plumbing
the war on long-end bond issuance is just beginning
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Ten-year yields near 5% would be a policy failure… and a fitting consequence for turning the Fed into a political pawn. The steepener trade is just getting started.
alphapicks.co.uk
Bond markets are sending a message, and it's getting louder.
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UK inflation re-accelerates to 4.1% on the CPIH measure. Highest in the G7. CPI at 3.6% vs a 1.7% in September last year. Two rate cuts priced through to year end feels rather rich right now…
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RT @EffMktHype: 1. Front end all over the place globally.2. Long term bond distaste is global.3. Sell-US theme doesn't quite track when all….
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RT @a_omahony_ap: The moves in the JGB market today show people are taking the election this week seriously. 50/50 probability that the inc….
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