Aloof Spectator
@AloofSpectator
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Joined February 2015
The surveillance state isn’t dystopian science-fiction about the future. It’s here. Quietly, conveniently, and completely normalized.
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It's hard to imagine a worse healthcare system than what we have now. The highest costs in the world. Preventive care that kills you. The system is a funnel that drains wealth from families & sends it to elites. Great if you're in a car accident. For everything else, not so much.
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Brazilian pollster AtlasIntel was the best pollster of 2022 and now the best of 2024.
The final AtlasIntel estimate for Trump's national popular vote advantage was 1.2%.
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This is a real concern. Not because of the $ leaving the fiat system, but because of the brutal response we would see from the US gov (which is very hostile already). Might happen at $100k or $250k btc, don’t know, but it will happen.
I think when #Bitcoin hits 100k, and becomes a $2T asset. The FOMO + money leaving assets (Gold ETF outflows e.g.) + deposits leaving banks could be big enough to start or cause a systematic credit event. When Signature and Silvergate collapsed, we didn't have the ETFs, and
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2/2 …government regulators will shut up (their harassment) by the White House election bosses running the show. current slow grind is unnatural, given the demand. The only way $100k doesn’t come quickly (by Summer) is if ETF flows slow down significantly.
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Price will go up violently, rather than grind up. Miners sold a lot of btc in Jan, eventually they’ll run out, along with the ‘22 bankruptcies-led selling. Then all you got is $500mm daily etf demand and no bitcoin being sold, smack in the middle of the halving…1/2
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New FASB rules, where corp.’s that hold BTC can use EOQ btc price instead of “lowest Q btc price” is huge It opens door to any Co on the fence about allocating a small amt of treasury to btc, as their holdings will be fairly valued. Unnoticeable short term, but huge over next 2y
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Good estimate of Blackrock’s expectations….and the reality of BTC demand👇
Blackrock offered a fee discount to early adopters. Half price fees for the first six months OR The first $5B AUM I.e. they were expected to be roughly equivelant periods. How's it going? They've got $3B in 3.5 weeks of trading. It won't take six months to get $5B it
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👀
Here’s the 25 most successful ETF launches of all time and you can see BlackRock dominates top 10. This is lined up cash (not organic) hence why I say “on brand” this is what they do. Further, I got a second source to confirm Matt’s claim that they have big day one $ lined up
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This seems important. Retail can now spend $35k fiat-to- crypto at a clip.
#Coinbase has upped the limit you can bring into your wallet via ACH, by $35,000. Potentially preparing for large inflows?
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Contracts in ANY currency or asset. This might be a big deal: —-Large purchases (real estate, land, used vehicles) in BTC, —Almost anything in USDC. The state doesn’t care what coin the contract is in. We might see a Cambrian explosion of Crypto utility in the real world.
🇦🇷 Diana Mondino, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Argentina, confirms that, from now on, financial contracts can be denominated in #Bitcoin.
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BTC spot ETF will🚀 price: ⁃Blackrock’s Fink, Fidelity,etc will hard sell the virtues of BTC to retail & tradfi ⁃Fin. Advisors (1/3 of US capital) finally have incentive to push BTC (ETF’s = commissions) ⁃ETF legitimizes/reduces “scam-iness” of BTC to normies ⁃see gold etf
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BITCOIN Pros: -Spot ETF coming -Halvening (6 mo later, price moons) -Macro: Fed will start printing $ in ‘24 (Euros & others will follow). BTC tightly correlated to $ liquidity -Polit: 2024 is presidential year, gov will find a way to spend (even more liq) Con: Binance off’d?
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CT Feed is focusing on everything this morning except the one thing that was unknown 24 hrs ago. The gov shut down Signature bank for no reason other than it was the last standing “crypto bank”. This will have the biggest effect on crypto prices over the coming months.
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Narrative around inflation will inverse in the Fall. Heavy Fed Tightening + post-midterm repeat of Clinton/Newt=GOP congress blocks spending to harm Prez.
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1 Fed tightening next 6 months + historically down markets pre-midterms 2 Up markets post midterms hist + by Nov. Fed might shift hawkish tone 3 Eth merge in the fall + then we’re past the 1/2 way mark in bitcoin halvening cycle = Hold tight next several months for an 💥🆙 Q4
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This🧵 by the peerless Ms. Alden provides the macro gist of what will happen over the next 5-10 years. Regardless of party, boom/bust, etc. It’s mathematically the only thing that governments CAN do (and have always done, since paper money was invented): INFLATE THE DEBT AWAY.
This is known as financial repression. When debt is very high, then even when inflation runs hot, central banks are extremely slow to raise rates. The real value of the debt gets eroded away; currency devaluation.
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