What is Luck? First, it's the thing that the Live Ladders model attempts to subtract from the scoreboard result, to find an underlying margin. Second, it's what propelled the tipping model to 156 this year, 20 ahead of the bookies. 24 of 29 @SquiggleAFL models beat them. [1/3]

Bit more work on this project, inside 50 visualiser - loaded up with the data from #AFLDeesSaints

Meanwhile, Sydney genuinely spifflicate Carlton and Brisbane, the latter despite losing clearances by 22. Ranking improves from 11th to 3rd in two weeks, the biggest re-evaluation we've seen in a long time

Bulldogs 2025: KPIs have them top 4 but lose narrowly to top teams 2026 OR: concede 124 points worth of shots and win because Bris can't kick straight R1: win by 81. Only +25 equity despite +19 clearances including 5-0 F50 throw-ins for 3.1 Computer downgrades them each week

Four out of the six games have been won by the team with the lower shot equity. The sample size is in! Luck is the new hottest stat teams are training to win. -- afl. com. au

Nick Daicos (95 games) is the 17th most experienced player in Collingwood's named team, and 20th on their list

SCG, Thursday March 5: Day Zero of Round Zero. What a time to be alive! Curiously on Sunday, Collingwood is a $2.02 outsider against St Kilda. Every @SquiggleAFL computer model tips Collingwood, forecasting them as a top-8 team. St Kilda's highest projection is 12th

Urk looking at this in the daylight. Why is Edge dark mode so bad, and Windows Snipping Tool worse? Better screenshot here

19 days to go, and we have Wildcard projections

‘You need 11+ wins to make the ten’ is the new ‘you need 12+ wins to make the eight’. This article exists so my fellow media members, and coaches, can update our cliches. @FOXFOOTY https://t.co/Iy6ea5ScNb

ICYMI the game started at 5pm and Canberra didn't score until after 9pm. We were there at kickoff and final whistle, but managed a four-course meal in between down the road #truestory

C'mon @NYTGames, it's the off-season and your puzzles shouldn't disturb us like this

And Sydney win the flag from 10th - now possible in the 2026 Squiggle Ladder Predictor. https://t.co/TYF8hgIkgW

Here you are for 2026, if you haven't found it already. Computer-readable JSON of the newly-released AFL fixture:

Personally, I’m a bit over the concept of an ordinary innovation squaring off the ill-effects of another, but maybe I’m old school.

For instance, you could earn a Wildcard when you hit 50 premiership points. If no-one does that, no Wildcard. If two teams outside the eight do it, play two Wildcard games.

Third Round added in four years. Teams 7 & 8 were already irrelevant; this will reinforce that. Name is wrong: if it doesn't count for the Gary Ayres Award then it's a Play-In, if it does it's a Final. Wildcard implies you use criteria different from ladder position (see next)

Just one thrilling #AFLW final in prospect: #3 (rated by computer) Melbourne 'host' #2 Brisbane at Princes Park. The others: #1 North to spifflicate #7 Hawthorn, #6 Adelaide comfortably over #13 St Kilda, and #10 Carlton vs #12 WCE for the also-ran trophy. No-shows: #4 WB, #5 PA

2025 @westernbulldogs men: 3rd highest percentage, finish 9th women: 4th highest percentage, finish 12th

State of #AFLW play: 32 points and you're playing finals. 24 points and you're very unlikely (unless you're Brisbane). 28 points is enough for Bris, WCE, Adel and almost certainly Syd. St Kilda, Carlton (both 80%) & Freo (33%) could sneak in with 7 wins despite low percentage

The current #AFLW ladder is wild to look at. And pretty concerning from a league perspective, I think.