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Happy 4th of July from all of us at AAF. 🦅 #IndependenceDay

Weekly Checkup: Another Reconciliation Reaction - Michael Baker #HealthCare #OBBBA.

It seems unlikely that countries can fully avoid higher tariffs—the best they can hope for is to soften the blow. Despite the economic shock of Liberation Day, markets appear to have relaxed their planning for the reality of higher, long-term tariff rates.

President Trump’s initial “Liberation Day” tariffs under IEEPA amounted to a $370 billion cost hike for U.S. consumers and businesses. The ongoing 10% universal tariff is estimated to cost each consumer between $1,700 and $2,350 annually. #TheShipment.

Any OBBBA analysis wouldn’t be complete without talking about a few missed opportunities. None of the provisions in either version of the bill seriously looked at the financing landscape for the Medicare trust fund. #HealthCare.

Far from the transformative legislative reform package the #OBBBA could have been, it appears to be a hodgepodge of members’ pet priorities that may lead to an even more convoluted health policy environment. #HealthCare.

"Fun" Fact: The elimination of Canada’s 3-percent digital services tax will save U.S. companies an estimated $2 billion in retroactive payments and nearly $1 billion annually going forward. #TheShipment.

RT @djheakin: This is the worst good report in history. Video. A. Report D.

RT @JJensen2020: Gaming out Vietnam Buying SUVs:. The avg monthly salary in Vietnam is ≈ $600 . One of the cheapest SUVs from a U.S. compan….

Here’s the Weekly Economic Tracker. @djheakin breaks down this week’s economic news.

RT @fredcashton: A good report for all the wrong reasons. The drop in the unemployment rate was driven by 130,000 people leaving the labor….

Now that the Senate’s version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is official and the House is barreling toward a vote, there are a few surprising, less-discussed additions and omissions in the bill that (read: those that aren’t Medicaid-related). #OBBBA.

FACT OF THE DAY: Nearly 60 percent of U.S. adults are living with at least one chronic condition and 40 percent are managing multiple diseases.

The June 2025 jobs report is out! AAF’s @fredcashton reacts to the latest employment report.

Job growth has slowed to 124,000 per month so far this year—a solid pace, but details in the BLS household survey suggest the labor market may be deteriorating faster than the headline number indicates.

Jobs Data Flashing Yellow - @fredcashton #jobsday.

For the June jobs report, expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.3 percent, which would be the highest level since October 2021, while growth in average hourly earnings slows to 0.3 percent. #jobsday.

PODCAST: AAF President @djheakin and Director of Technology and Innovation Policy @jeffreywestling join us to discuss the current status of the OBBBA and the TikTok ban saga.

The best part of the #OBBBA tax policy is that it avoids a major tax hike—and likely a recession. Beyond that, it’s underwhelming. Most provisions just extend current law, offering little to no boost for economic growth.

For the June jobs report, expect topline payroll growth of 82,000, which would be the slowest pace since October 2024, reflecting continued tentativeness among employers to hire workers amid tariff and other economic uncertainties.