Afshon Ostovar
@AOstovar
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Historian of the recent past. My opinions only. Likes=bookmarks. Forthcoming: Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East
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Joined April 2011
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Love this
Garbage collectors in Ankara open a library with books rescued from the trash. "The only regret the men have, is that they didn't start collecting sooner."
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CIA concludes Saudi crown prince ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination - The Washington Post
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Folks, you don’t fire dozens of rockets, of any type, directly at a target containing humans as a “face-saving gesture”. If the IRGC’s statements and reports are true, there’s nothing “token” about this.
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The U.S. military is considering sending Ukraine thousands of seized weapons and more than a million rounds of ammunition once bound for Iran-backed fighters in Yemen, an unprecedented step that would help Kyiv battle Russian forces
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Two nuclear powers are engaging in tit-for-tat escalatory strikes and its barely making the news right now
BREAKING: Pakistan says undertook air strikes vs Indian targets from Pakistani side of LoC. "We have no intention of escalation, but are fully prepared to do so if forced into that paradigm. That is why we undertook the action with clear warning and in broad daylight," says FO.
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I generally don’t put a lot of stock in “spoiler” arguments when it comes to geopolitics, but today’s assassination in Tehran will make returning to the JCPOA and negotiations with a new US administration much tougher. And that might be the point
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I’ve said this in the past, and I’ll repeat it here: designating an entire state military as an FTO is unprecedented. It will make it incredibly difficult to engage Iran productively in the future. It will also needlessly complicate US engagement in Iraq
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“I killed your brother, please don’t respond” is not really how deterrence works
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Some comments about the fall of Herat & what it means for Iran are odd. Let’s not forget Iran helped the Taliban survive, & the IRGC has strong links with the group. Iran was well aware the Taliban could return to power & prefers that reality to US troops remaining in Afghanistan
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Let us all understand this: The IRGC does not go rogue in the strategic arena. It is a firm part of the decision making establishment. The Islamic Republic isn’t a street gang or a militant group. It’s an authoritarian state with an ordered and fixed strategic process.
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The case seems to boil down to cosplaying your way into a Navy Yard penthouse apartment
Good afternoon. Judge Harvey is resuming the detention hearing for Arian Taherzadeh and Haider Ali, who are accused of impersonating DHS agents
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There are a number of incredible details here, including Iran’s use of commercial satellite imagery in the lead up to the attack. If anyone is still confused about Iran’s intentions that night, there’s no doubt these strikes were meant to kill US troops
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What makes the coronavirus outbreak in Iran particularly striking is that it seems to have spread into circles of the country’s officialdom. I can’t think of a single modern historical precedent where government elites were perhaps more at risk than the general population.
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Me on Soleimani’s assassination, what led us to this point, and what might come next
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Holy crap
Hossein Sheikholeslam, former advisor to
@JZarif
and Iran's ex-ambassador to Syria, just died of
#Coronavirus
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Watching CNN for the first time in years. While numerous commentators discuss potential escalation points of Hamas’ war with Israel, and how it could spread, almost none mention Iran. Even if only an indirect role, there’s zero chance that Iran was uninvolved in Hamas’ operation
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This is huge. The Sultan was the most measured and most forward looking leader in the region. He was the key intermediary between the US and Iran, and between Iran and the Gulf states. His loss will be significant for both the region and for Oman. RIP
BREAKING
Sultan Qaboos of Oman has died 🇴🇲
Key player in regional diplomacy, long believed to be ailing. 🙏🏻
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This isn’t a surprise. But what it tells us is that Iran *wants* credit. In the crude terms of war, this is the regime’s most effective action against Israel. The IRGC wants the “win”. But this also severely escalates the Iran-Israeli conflict. Israel will no doubt respond
Breaking: Iran helped plan Hamas’s attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting last Monday
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If you’re not reading
@MazMHussain
you should. Start with this piece on how Iran’s intel operatives inside Iraq viewed Soleimani’s influence
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Soleimani has funneled money and weapons to the Taliban for well over a decade
One of the most baffling things to come out of this:
The Taliban is apparently mourning Soleimani. Even though...
He loathed the Taliban, and not only helped the Northern Alliance fight them, but also helped the Americans do the same after 9/11.
Lol.
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Thread: This could be a turning point in the conflict with Iran but I doubt it. The reason being is this: Right now Iran is getting nowhere with its attacks. If US continues to not engage Iran will be left three choices: escalate, more of the same, or retreat.
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That’s no small thing. The larger context for this: Beyond the attack on US forces in Jordanian territory, Jordan has been contending with increasing pressure from Iran-backed militias trafficking drugs into the country, and smuggling weapons into the West Bank
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Debate on last week’s attacks has so far focused on whether Iran was involved or not. I think that misses the more important question: if Iran did it, what is it trying to achieve? My latest (and not my title, btw)
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People seem to be asking who am I to comment on the recent stuff going on the Middle East. Well, I've written somethings on it. In case anyone is interested, here's a thread of a few publications that give context to what's going on right now:
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Some folks prefer to imagine that whenever the IRGC does something bad outside of Iran, it must be the result of a rogue operative. Let me disabuse everyone of that right now.
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We really want oil
An oil worker in the North Sea has captured incredible footage of a floating oil rig.
The largest and deepest offshore platform ever built called “Troll A” stands at about 303 m bellow sea level, and had a total height of 472m.
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Ukrainian officials suggest Iran would not have admitted responsibility if investigators from Ukraine had not found missile debris in the crash wreckage
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Qaani will hit the ground running. The IRGC is part of a broader system. It relies much less on individuals than many analysts beleive. Soleimani’s death will have an impact, but there will be no discernible change to Iran’s regional network or operations. Revenge aside.
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The IRGC’s loyalties are neither to Iran nor bound by geography. The political entity they serve is transnational & defined by the supreme leader. By challenging the Islamic system protesters challenge the IRGC’s raison d’être. Me in
@ForeignPolicy
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Not a good time to be a high-pressure cylinder in Iran right now
Explosion as fire breaks out at Iranian industrial complex
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Terrorism is inexcusable and abhorrent regardless of the target. But those that think hitting the IRGC’s rank-and-file = attacking the regime are gravely mistaken. This attack is something all regular Iranians can empathize with. This is an attack on their society, not the regime
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So you’re saying there’s a chance
The Earth would have to turn once every 84 minutes or 17 times faster than the current speed in order for humans to be thrown off the planet, when the centrifugal force would be bigger than the force of gravity that holds us "down".
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What’s disturbing to me, but not surprising, is that the IRGC seems to be looking for unsettled second generation kids in the west. Kids that grew up feeling uncertain about their identity and relationship to either their family’s adopted home or their ancestral one.
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The chances of a non-lethal missile strike satisfying the desire for revenge among Iran’s clients in Iraq for the killing of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and the earlier strikes against Kataib Hezbollah is unlikely. Here al-Khazali is making that point clear. Expect more violence.
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It is difficult to stress how differently Soleimani is viewed by Iranian and Arabic publics. What many Iranians saw as a selfless, patriotic military leader who stood up to the bullying of foreign powers and defended the country from ISIS, Sunni Arabs saw an arch sectarian...
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There’s going to be a lot of pressure to keep Iran’s role—whatever it was—undefined. Once the finger is pointed it’ll behoove action. Keeping Iran’s role unspecified will give more latitude to policy makers & allow responses to be calculated & unhurried
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One year on, Soleimani’s legacy is still unclear. But that hasn’t stopped the IRGC from transforming him into the patron saint of Iran’s revolutionary order. Me in
@newlinesmag
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I can’t imagine Trudeau would go public with this if he wasn’t confident in the veracity of the information and its sourcing. What a tragedy, and one that could have so easily been avoided.
BREAKING: Justin Trudeau: "We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile."
"This may well have been unintentional."
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Some seem to be wondering where my comments on the IRGC are coming from, or what evidence I’m basing them on. Well, among other things, I wrote a book on the IRGC
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A reminder that Iran’s clients have agency. Their commander was also killed. They don’t need a green light from Iran to retaliate
Iraqi Kata’ib Hezbollah militia announces that US forces are the target starting tomorrow night.
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This is an issue that as sadly resonated little in the Iran commentariat but is deserving of much more attention. Baha’is in Iran are systematically abused by the government for no other reason than their religious identity.
#itstheirland
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This is big news. Shalai is the future heir apparent to Soleimani. He played a leading role in developing Iran’s most lethal Iraqi proxies after 2003, was behind the assassination plot of the Saudi ambassador in DC, and has led support to the Houthis for years.
SCOOP: On the same day U.S. forces killed Solemiani, they launched another secret kill operation to take out a senior Iranian official in Yemen, but did not succeed. 1/ My latest with
@missy_ryan
and
@jdawsey1
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Th Al Qaeda-Iran connection is well-established and old news. Their relationship is neither straightforward nor simple, but it certainly exists. What will be interesting to see is if any of the new information released will meaningfully change our view of what is already known
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As the world grapples with a pandemic, some actors are trying to instigate a US-Iran conflict. Why now? Whose agenda does it serve? My latest:
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With each video I’ve seen of what’s going on at Evin prison (fires, gun shots, riot police reinforcements) the pit in my stomach grows deeper. Evin’s full of political prisoners & prisoners of conscience. That the regime might be massacring those inside is a thought I can’t shake
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My latest in
@ForeignPolicy
“The regime has had no compunction about killing its own people... But in order to win, the regime must go to war against young women and teenage girls. That’s not a war it can win. And it probably knows it.”
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It’s this imbalance that’s going to eat at the IRGC. There are cool heads in the regime, Khamenei in particular, and that might be all that matters, but IRGC leadership won’t be easily be pacified
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Assassinations are not some sort of flim flam operation that IRGC members can engage in for their own personal aims. They are serious business. The regime is deliberate when it wants to kill people outside of Iran. That they aren’t very good at it doesn’t matter.
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Given today's news, shameless plug for my book on Iran's IRGC, its rise, politics, and strategy
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The IRGC is a highly professional and stratified organization. It takes its orders from the leader. When it is involved in anything outside of Iran it has been approved at the highest levels of Iran’s regime. When the IRGC acts, Iran acts.
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It is difficult to imagine that the IRGC has not been hit by the virus as well. Otherwise anonymous IRGC officials regularly travel abroad, and to Qom, and have a large role in Iran’s prisons. Wouldn’t be surprised if the IRGC was actually a main link to some of these outbreaks
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Iran’s strategy against Israel has been a patient one. The regime has sought to kill its enemy with a thousand cuts instead of with overwhelming force. The attacks of this month, however, have forced Israel’s hand. — My latest for
@WarOnTheRocks
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Iran could be working to compel the Iraqi government to expel US troops from Iraq. On the surface such a move makes sense for Iran: lessens US regional footprint, lessens US influence in Iraq, & makes US focal point of Iraqi politics again. The move also carries risk for Iran...
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There is a general misconception about the IRGC. When specialists refer to the IRGC as a pillar of the regime, they are referring to the org’s leadership, which is a small % of the ~125k strong force. Leases are promoted by political and ideological loyalty to the regime.
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Me on Iran and Israel’s latest tit-for-tat exchange, what it says about decision making in Tehran, and why the road to an eventual, and much more serious war, is is all but inevitable
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Since the war in Gaza began, Iran’s proxies have targeted Israel from Lebanon, attempted to strike US forces in Iraq and Syria, and fired missiles possibly against Israel from Yemen. Make no mistake: Iran is signaling a willingness for war and its proxies are in lockstep
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I wrote a book on the IRGC, which covers its history, development, and rise as a regional power under Soleimani's leadership:
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A reminder that you can’t easily generalize about Iranian society. It’s diverse and dynamic
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My latest article just came out in Security Studies. It examines how clients fit into Iran’s grand strategy and the utility (as well as pitfalls) non-state militant groups provide to states
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The bottom line: this attack made Iran look weak. Iran is unlikely to entertain talks in such a position. Iran will want to reestablish the upper hand. That requires risking escalation: either thru revenge attacks, an assertive military posture, or advances in its nuclear program
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4 cruise missiles and 15 drones is an unsubtle barrage
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Iran does not fear instability on its borders. It knows that it can exploit instability better than any other player in the region or foreign power. It has strong networks in the Afghanistan that will keep its business running.
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So far the tit-for-tat game the US is playing with Iran is not achieving deterrence. The IRGC has no qualms about sacrificing the lives of its non-Iranian proxies. The US can bomb militia outposts in Syria all day long but it won’t change the IRGC’s behavior
A US service member was injured in a new attack by suspected Iranian backed militias on Friday night near oil and gas fields known as Conoco in Syria, a US official tells
@NatashaBertrand
The service member is in stable condition.
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This doesn’t mean that the IRGC might not one day see the Taliban as an enemy again. Rather, it means that the IRGC and Iran’s leaders would rather deal with that scenario, and all of its potential implications, than ever see Afghanistan emerge as a stable, US-friendly country
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The constant barrage of attacks by the IRGC and its proxies is commonly understood as part of Iran’s coercive diplomacy. Twisting the arms of neighbors and rivals until they relent and either get out of the way or give Iran what it wants. That’s probably an accurate view.
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That other thing is happening
Breaking: Air strikes rock southern Iraq as US retaliates for rocket attack
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I know that Iran Twitter can be a contentious place, but the personal attacks are getting increasingly ugly and thoroughly unjustified. Seeing the campaign against
@ArianeTabatabai
has been particularly unwarranted.
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The IRGC has been pursuing this very outcome for the last fifteen years. As we tweet about the extreme heartbreak of seeing Afghanistan’s cities fall one after another, make no mistake that the IRGC is quietly toasting the same as a victory.
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Blinken with a stronger statement on the Rushdie attack, calling out Iran for whipping up decades of bloodlust against the author. Should not expect much more given the investigation has just begun, but acknowledges that Iran shares some blame
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Iran Newspaper celebrating 1000 Israelis killed as if it were a sports score. Iran’s leaders and propaganda outlets are relishing this moment, embracing the butchery of innocent human beings and taking it as a victory for their side
هزارتایی شدیم!
رسانههای رژیمصهیونیستی اعلام کردند تلفات حمله نیروهای مقاومت به این رژیم در تاریخ ۱۷مهرماه به ۱۰۰۰ نفر رسید!
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So far as I can tell 280 characters has made the world bleaker and hot takes even more scorching piles of armchairism
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Iran uses missile strikes to signal strength, but they also betray its strategic limitations. Provocative acts can achieve only so much. And unless Iran seeks to tempt war, it’s running out of tools. My latest in
@ForeignPolicy
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The Iranian poet Fatimeh Baraghani, more commonly know as Tahireh, famously took off her hijab in 1848 to signal a new era of equality, one free from the superstition and dogma of the Shia clergy. It was a revolutionary act. 175 years later, it still is
در #ساری دختران و زنان در میدان شهرداری همه تجمع کردهاند روسری های خود را به آتش میکشند و دور آن میرقصند.
#مهسا_امینی
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IRGC doing what it do. Creates a corona HQ to combat the virus like an enemy. The fact that the IRGC is presenting itself as the leader in Iran’s public health campaign should be cause for concern.
بیانیه سپاه/ تشکیل "قرارگاه پیشگیری و مقابله با کرونا" در ستاد فرماندهی کل سپاه/ تا غلبه کامل بر ویروس کرونا در صحنه خواهیم بود
#کرونا_را_شکست_میدهیم
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It seems rather puzzling that Iran’s imprisonment of an innocent foreign grad student should lead to the release of three of its covert agents jailed for failed explosive attacks in Thailand but that’s how the Islamic Republic does business
BREAKING:
#Iran
releases Australian-British detained academic Kylie Moore Gilbert in exchange for 3 Iranian prisoners in Thailand (AP)
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Doing a history phd is about the finest training in social distancing one could get short of living in the woods
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Drones are slow. Missiles aren’t. A mixed attacked would be more challenging for Israel to counter. Perhaps Iran will be satisfied with simply the act of responding. Drones could be sufficient to the end. But if it wants to do damage, I’d expect a follow up attack with missiles
If Iran really intends to attack Israel directly with ballistic missiles, it won’t easily avoid an escalatory response. Drones are a different story. Either way, the scope and targets of any attack will shape Israel’s response calculus. Dangerous moment
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Really excited for this long-form piece to drop.
@newlinesmag
gave me the chance to do something different from the usual commentary, which gave me the space to consider Soleimani and his legacy from both historical and contemporary angles
On the anniversary of the
#Soleimani
assassination, stay tuned for a deep-dive primer on his rise and role within the IRGC and regionally; the bloodshed and malcontent he leaves behind despite efforts to lionize him. By
@AOstovar
for
@newlinesmag
tomorrow.
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My latest published today by
@IAJournal_CH
examines the role of religion in Iran's relations to clients & proxies; and argues that religion alone is insufficient for preserving a group's loyalty over time. Findings have implications for the future MidEast
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There has been a lot of talk about Raisi being groomed for future supreme leader, and the presidency as a necessary means of gaining him credibility. But what if he’s being thrust into the election for the exact opposite reason, to tarnish his standing and credibility? 1/2
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I’m not an ISIS alarmist, but containing the group in Iraq has relied on US air power. Politics being what they are, it’d be difficult for most Iraqi politicians to not outwardly support the expulsion of US forces. The risks of that move however are huge.
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I’m upping this piece again because the general argument holds true regarding Iran’s role in the Saudi attack. Policy discussions gain nothing by ignoring the obvious. (And again, the title isn’t mine)
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Iran’s ballistic missile strike on Iraq in January is part of the context here. The West was willing to look past Iran’s missile program assuming it’d remain a standoff deterrent & wouldn’t be used. But the attack showed both Iran’s willingness & the sophistication of the threat
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Accident or shadow war is the drinking game nobody asked for
Massive fire at/near Tehran's oil refinery. More details to follow
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However, the vast majority of the force is made up of conscripts who are serving mandatory stints in Iran’s armed forces. They could be politically of any stripe. Supportive of the regime or critical. They generally have no choice in which branch of the armed forces they serve.
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The impulse to clown a neutral foreign leader, much less one willing to help deescalate a potential conflict, is precisely why the Islamic Republic has been stuck in a 40 year morass
Iran's Leader channel on Telegram app just published this video about Shinzo Abe changing his mind, not delivering Trump's letter to Ayatollah Khamenei
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ISIS did the same thing, exploiting identity crises and the sense of dislocation, by giving vulnerable, at-risk youth a way of manifesting the authenticity they felt they lacked. It’s easy to seek those kids out on social media, and Iranian media channels routinely target them
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Important piece by
@erinmcunningham
here. The juxtaposition of Soleimani’s massive funerals with furious protests following the downing of PS752 was jarring, but unsurprising. They’re expressions of the dynamism & contradictions in Iranian society
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Heartening to see that some continue to respect the old ways
Waukesha Blotter: A woman was performing a spiritual ritual on a dead opossum in the road at Springdale & Bluemound by throwing goldfish & windshield washer fluid on it. She then pulled out a Packers lawn chair and yelled “repent” at the dead animal.
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Greatly enjoyed discussing Qasim Soleimani with
@RUSI_org
as part of their Talking Strategy podcast
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It was always a bit rich that Iran’s negotiators pushed for delisting the IRGC as a terrorist org. One can argue the merits or drawbacks of that designation, as I have in the past. What’s not in doubt however, is that the IRGC acts & operates like a terrorist organization.
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This has been one of the great ironies of the Islamic Republic’s fixation on Israel. The more the regime emphasizes the issue the more Iranians turn against the regime’s cause. The regime privileges fighting wars that its citizens increasingly want no part of
Many of you don't know the extent to which the Iranian regime's support for Hamas and PIJ is hated by the Iranian people.
Here you see a few pro-regime folks taking Palestinian flags to the stadium, thousands of fans shout in response "put that flag in your ass"
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Of course, maritime based responses need no such permission
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