Deric | AGI Social Contract
@0xDeric
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Researching policies to redesign governments for the upcoming AI economic transformation. @alchemy 5th SWE | @google research | @web3university founder
Joined January 2012
🧵 "What should the role of governments be after the upcoming AI economic transformation?" We're launching an new anthology on a new "AGI Social Contract" - in collab with 12+ experts to explore new strategies & policy interventions for an AI transition. In collab with:
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Link: https://t.co/l643TKimv8 - Benchmarks of remote labor from OpenAI and the Center for AI Safety differ dramatically depending on the content and context of the task. - A new theory suggests AI automation will hit later but faster than expected, which would have major
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We (@windfalltrust) just published our first AI Economics Brief! It'll be a bi-weekly curated newsletter with updates on the economics of TAI. I'll summarize the first one below but you'll need to subscribe for more updates ☺️
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Looked up Xania Monet (Billboard-charting AI artist): 1. It's kind of a banger - Christian music rarely get this level of talent 2. Not a single person in the YT comments seems to be aware or cares that it's AI-generated It's happening 🤷♂️ https://t.co/wmY3UR2eSI
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Another way to frame it would be: we will be the elderly parents of superintelligence. If designed well, it should want to take care of us - because we are by definition, its forefathers, the source of all of its knowledge, and the reason it exists.
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it's frustrating that takes in the US inevitably become split along partisan lines when the deep underlying challenge is simply capitalism: what do large companies want to achieve? (profits and market share) how do they want to achieve it? (deregulation and regulatory capture)
Somewhat unbelievably, people who apparently work full-time in this space are still claiming that "The AI industry wants us to believe superintelligence is the real threat from genAI". Meanwhile we simultaneously have to hear that superintelligence risk concerns are also about
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https://t.co/zyjJl8IdSE vs. https://t.co/kbgQKOw0QY can you spot the difference? 🤣
mechanize.work
Mechanize is a software company that builds RL environments and sells them to the leading AI labs.
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This is excellent work and deserves more attention! A fantastic summary of the latest AI econ literature.
NEW: AI and Labor Markets: What We Know and Don’t Know There is a lot we don't know! I wrote an essay outlining where we need more research. A short thread with a link to the piece:
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This piece is a must-read - there is a huge gap between the models economists are currently using, and the upcoming diffusion of AI into the economy The ability to structurally model AI economic impacts would be a huge boon to economists's ability to grapple with this new tech
I wrote a long blot post on the economics of AI, prompted by two great workshops (Windfall and NBER), and me leaving OpenAI for METR: TLDR: we driving in the fog. 1. There is no standard model of AI’s economic impact. Economists have been using a wide range of assumptions to
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Digging into GDPVals from OpenAI: - The task definitions and problem constructions are surprisingly thorough and well-researched - Despite how well they're constructed, these challenges are still highly artificial: clear context provided, specific deliverables, no revisions or
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This is a must read post for people considering full automation scenarios within the next five years. Hint: it's never quite as easy as it seems. And we won't know until we've solved the first challenges how to tackle the next ones down the line.
AI economists and AI researchers: this is *excellent*. Details below, but as I feel like I've said in every talk on this topic since my slides said "GPT-2", 1) AI technical capabilities are better and improving quicker than you think, 2) impact on economy *much* slower. 1/13
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did not realize the public opinion numbers were this extreme
The real headline: 8% of Americans believe AI will increase the total number jobs over the next decade.
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Huge congrats and well deserved 💪
I'm honored to be named on @TIME's list of #TIME100AI most influential people in AI! This recognition reflects the urgent need to understand the economic impact of AI, which could transform our world as profoundly as the Industrial Revolution, but in a fraction of the time.🚀
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8/ For other papers in the AI economic policy fellowship, see: https://t.co/hpCvnq4AR3
convergenceanalysis.org
We conduct strategic research and advocate for critical governance interventions to mitigate the existential risk posed by AI technologies.
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7/ Their conclusions? ▫ A Global Corporate Income Tax would be a technically feasible way to target mobile economic rents, but relies on sustained international coordination. ▫ Sovereign Wealth Funds and Windfall Clauses offer mechanisms to capture and redeploy AI-generated
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6/ The paper goes on to introduce a framework to evaluate taxation mechanisms (Feasibility, Incidence, Resilience, and Incentives) and explore nine different approaches:
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5/ A full diagram of the economic scenarios described. 6/
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