Salary sacrifice for heat pumps not the way forward - we should be making heat pumps cheaper for poorest not the richest As we showed for the EV scheme, salary sacrifice locks most low-income households out of meaningful subsidy and chucks huge sums to the highest earners

The fuel duty freeze is particularly disappointing as bus/rail costs rise: rail fares will rise 4.6% next year while there is a new higher bus fare cap of £3. It's lower income households that take most of these high cost bus trips.

Distributionally these are a mixed bag - poorer households should be mostly sheltered from taxes on flying and new vehicles. But more of the fuel duty freeze will flow to richer households, who drive three times more miles than the poorest 20%.

Air Passenger Duty will rise modestly, bringing in an extra 17% on current revenue by 2029-30 in real terms. The big rise for priv. jets will grab headlines but new revenue will come largely from standard rates. This is welcome as APD hasn't gone up for most flights since 2012.

Offsetting this - for the exchequer and the climate - the Chancellor put up taxes on flying and new (polluting) car purchases. Vehicle Excise Duty, which will double for most cars, to up to £5k+ for the most polluting. This could drive EV takeup without costly state subsidies.

Biggest one first - Fuel Duty has yet again been frozen, with Sunak's 5p cut also kept. Costing £3bn, this means the rate of FD is down 38% on 2010 in real terms. This means more tax/ less spend elsewhere and emissions from more driving and a weaker incentive to go electric.

Transport taxes were one target for the Chancellor yesterday, with seven changes to how cars, vans and planes are taxed. These will raise £6.6bn and cost £5.5bn between now and 2029/30, with most of the cuts happening next year. [THREAD]

Poorer and younger households will be most impacted by the bus fare cap increasing to £3. The lowest income fifth take twice as many £2+ bus trips than the richest, and those under 30 take almost 4 times as many as the over 60's.

Buses and trains play many roles - supporting poorer households, reducing congestion, fostering growth and improving cities - but they won’t contribute much to climate targets. However, we should be worried that richer drivers risk monopolising net zero's biggest benefit.

Instead, efforts to keep public transport cheap should focus on those unable to enjoy EV benefits. Our railcard and bus pass schemes aren’t currently designed to do that, and could be reformed to give more discounts to those on benefits or without cars.

So we will need to manage the growing gap between fare and fuel prices. Subsidies like Germany's 9 euro ticket are seen as a silver bullet, but can’t solve it all: they’re expensive, don’t reduce car travel much, and focus on rail (which the rich use far more).

2) If cheaper driving creates modal shift towards cars this has costs for everyone. Public transport may get worse for those left behind, as fewer passengers means less revenue for services, while more driving creates congestion for those on the road.

1) Poorer people own fewer cars and use more public transport, particularly buses, so many risk missing out on the big gains from lower costs of driving.

Instead, the main issue is the falling cost of driving while bus and train fare prices continue to rise with inflation. This brings two problems - equity, and modal shift the other way.

What about the 1% of total emissions from buses and rail? This is a small pot of carbon and should be easy for consumers to deal with – it will be affordable and managed by companies/ Government.

Is ‘modal shift’, getting people out of cars and onto buses, the main role for public transport? Probably not - with the EV rollout underway, any gains won’t last long and the carbon intensity of public and private travel should be similar by the late 2030s.

Unlike cars, it's not yet clear what role public transport will play in decarbonisation. Our take: buses and trains probably won't make a big dent in climate targets, but we should be worried that passengers may miss out on the big savings EVs bring. https://t.co/dCCJzMA8MX

🚨 New report published today🚨 'Getting the green light', funded by the European Climate Foundation and written by @adamcorlett, @JMarshall_3, @zackleather, looks at the challenges of decarbonising UK travel and the impacts on low-to-middle income families. ⬇️

Strong announcement on warmer homes at Labour conference – will benefit the three-in-ten of the poorest families that are stuck in leaky rented homes

Speaking at our event, @pilitaclark warns that there are warnings the UK government will need to heed from abroad. She agrees that decarbonising home heating is a really tricky area, and that Germany's mishandling of heat pumps roll-out is an example of what not to do.