exponentialdave
@xponentialdave
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Growth stock investor/blogger - Not advice
Miami, FL
Joined April 2021
2025 Portfolio: +33% Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +250% Holdings: APP 30% IREN 10% NBIS 10% NVDA 9% ALAB 9% AXON 7% MELI 6% RDDT 5% RBRK 4% CRDO 4% <= 3% : CASH, WYFI, CRWV, PGY, HIVE
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NVDA just told you the depreciation debate is irrelevant and nobody’s repricing. Burry closed his fund after shorting NVDA, claiming companies overstate GPU useful life at 2-3 years. The market debates whether depreciation should be 3, 5, or 7 years. AWS just cut AI hardware
$NVDA basically answering Burry: “The A100s we shipped six years ago are still running at full utilization today, now powered by a much stronger software stack.”
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To take this a step further, $IREN is now down 9% and trading for LESS than it was *before* the microsoft deal! Talk about irrational markets... I have a huge Iren position already and I'm considering adding here, or converting some shares to options.
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I'm very aware of the stock price run up, and because this is Twitter, people will say "All that was already priced in". But actually... all that was certainly not priced in. Who could have known that they're guiding for $3.4 billion of revenue next year?
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A little bit funny to see $IREN, one of my biggest holdings, DOWN today after reporting an absolute blockbuster earnings yesterday. Says a lot about the state of the market right now, and not very much at all about Iren, who will be more than 10x'ing their revenue next year.
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Portfolio +56% YTD Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +312% Holdings: APP 24% IREN 19% NBIS 12% NVDA 8% AXON 7% ALAB 7% MELI 6% RDDT 4% <= 3% : WYFI, CRWV, PGY, CRDO, HIVE, RBRK
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$IREN signing a $9.7b cloud contract with $MSFT is a thesis-defining moment for shareholders For the last couple of years, doubters have argued that $IREN is just another $BTC miner or, in recent months, that they can’t compete with the likes of $NBIS or $CRWV because they lack
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Love when my tweets age well! $IREN 🚀 🚀
I was wondering why some of my friends were buying stock in a bitcoin miner. Then I saw its revenues are up 230% YoY in its most recent quarter. Ok, I'm interested, but it's still just a bitcoin miner. If I wanted more BTC exposure, I'd just buy bitcoin.
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Portfolio +61% YTD Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +314% APP 23% IREN 15% NBIS 14% AXON 8% ALAB 8% NVDA 8% MELI 5% RDDT 4% RBRK 4% 3% or less: WYFI, HIMS, CRWV, PGY, CRDO, HIVE
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I should give @GIMastery a finder’s fee for his work on $IREN. Great job on that one!
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Adding in February at the beginning of the Applovin short report nonsense ended up being a great decision. Similar theme today - probably a buying opportunity but at the end of the day no one really knows until the probe is complete Long $APP
$APP short reports are just making claims - no proof of anything (yet). The company has already swiftly and forcefully pushed back against the claims. I don't know everything - the claims could be true! But for now, it's probably BS. I added to my already large position.
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I think people forget how bad 2020/2021 was lol $OKLO needs to 3-5x FROM HERE for it to be like 2021 2021 had 0 revenue companies like: $LCID - $90B $RVIN - $100B+ valuation during IPO(larger than ford at the time) $NKLA - $30B ending up being a scam $FSR (Fisker) -
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Lot of retail investors (myself included) posting their portfolios and high fives all around. Is it a local top? Could be. But is it actionable? For me.. no. Macro is a highly uncertain endeavor. Even the smartest people typically get it v wrong. So I'm staying the course.
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Portfolio +59% YTD Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +311% APP 26% AXON 9% ALAB 9% NVDA 7% RDDT 6% MELI 6% IREN 6% HIMS 5% ZS 5% RBRK 4% NBIS 4% IOT 4% CRDO 3% 3% or less: TSLA, HNGE, DAVE, CRWV
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I rarely see $CRDO in my news feed. And there is a lot to like there. Revenues up 274% YoY and 31% QoQ, gross margins at 67%, GAAP profitable to the tune of $63.4m. Downsides are massive customer concentration, p/s ratio of 50, and lighter than usual quarterly rev guide.
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2) AI is only ~3% of revs today. But mgmt is guiding to $250m in 2025 (~33%). That’s a moonshot … and huge execution risk. Lots can go wrong. Long $IREN High risk, high reward
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Someone asked me what the biggest risks are for $IREN. I see 2 👇 1) 97% of revs come from mining $BTC. If BTC tanks, so do revs & profits.
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This would be universally bad for all investors, but it would hurt retail more. Investing in US companies would be much riskier and less transparent. “Somebody knows something” would be the norm as we wait 6 months between reports to actually know what’s going on.
BREAKING: The SEC says it is 'prioritizing' Trump's proposal to end quarterly earnings reports after his request
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Pretty good primer on $IREN and $NBIS. Wish I could give credit but I don't know who made it.
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