X has approved updating my handle to @willywoo Unfortunately my old handle @woonomic, will not redirect, hopefully @X can fix this.

Many have been saying it’s a risk-on market. Look at equities. Or look at BTC “digital gold” vs gold or silver. “Catch up rally!” I don’t care about narrative. Our work centres on measuring the actual flows real investor put into BTC… not imaginary flows from narrative. The

I’m bullish BTC late Jan through Feb but presently bearish for 2026. This is a data informed opinion which I hold lightly. Our internal models of investor flows put in a bottom on 24th December and has steadily strengthened. Typically it takes around 2-3 weeks for this to

Japanese will have more incentive to buy BTC. Classifying as a financial product means the tax rate on BTC gains (or trading) goes to 20% instead of being the marginal income tax rate (43-55% if you earn >57k USD per year. Metaplanet will lose its tax arbitrage advantage over

Until orange climbs higher into 2026 and starts to weird non-cyclical stuff, this narrative on THE END OF 4 YEAR CYCLES is NOT supported by data. Flows into the BTC network declining according to past cycles.

I think we get a short term pump for January (starting to see liquidity putting in a local bottom). But this chart (transactions and fees) looks long term (macro cycle) bearish, it's a ghost town out there.