David Willsey
@willson8tor
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DadOf3| ripMrV| uniqueRBanalytics| #NFLDraft RB Prospects| @DLFootball Prospect Analytics App| FantasyNation Accuracy '21(19th)/'22(15th)/'23(8th)| SFB9- #SFB14
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The 2024 Draft Class
Final Projected Round 88.71%
Avg Round Projection 85.37%
Projected Order 83.67%
I think this one may be the year I am most proud of.
The rest of the projections are at the top of the linked thread. I will get updated profiles, full results, etc out soon.
First, a recap of the previous 4 years...
2023
Final Proj Rnd-90%
Avg Rnd-87.32%
Proj Order-86%
2022
Final-85.7%
Avg-83.45%
Order-75.18%
2021
Final-85.71%
Avg-83.46%
Order-78.71%
2020
Final-84.91%
Avg-80.94%
Order-75.2%
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@P2WFantasy
495 lbs*
Lot of people in the comments saying "what's the big deal"
495 fronts for reps is impressive af
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To whom it may concern...
Michael Thomas kept Drew Brees as relevant as he was the last few years.
Drew Brees did not make Michael Thomas relevant.
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AJ Dillon having more rush attempts than Aaron Jones in a game they trailed the whole way isn't all that big of a deal.
AJ Dillon having more targets than Aaron Jones in a game they trailed the whole way, even if just one more, is kind of a big Deal
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So...
Marlon is a problem for Jonathan
Kerryon is a problem for D'Andre
Mark is a problem for JK
But the guy that ate up the Niners in the SB is not a problem for Clyde?
...please explain...
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Annnnd your Week 1 leader in receptions and receiving yards among ALL rookies is...
Jonathan Taylor
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People are comparing Kenneth Walker to Jonathan Taylor and I just don't have the energy today to go into all the ways that's wrong
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90-100% of the community liked all of Taylor, Swift, Dobbins, CEH, and Akers. Nearly all expected them to be players that would have an impact.
Show me someone that had JRob in their top 10 even. That's a victory lap worth taking.
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First rounders CEH Najee and Jacobs could never...
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Breece Hall is much more like Darren McFadden than Saquon Barkley
Like much more.
Just be aware...
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At long last, here they are!
2022 uniqueRBanalytics Rookie RB Rankings
In this thread:
Draft class ranked
UDFAs ranked
RBPC profile analysis
Range of outcomes based on pre and post draft profile
Landing spot analysis
Values & Fades at cost
Draft recap
More!
Let's begin⤵️
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@RaiderRich2001
@Barbod6Ka
@JackMyNBC5
Were you saying that back then or were you one of the other 99% that said he wasn't capable
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Baltimore Ravens backfield
JK Dobbins
7.9 y/c, 8.1 y/r, 8.0 y/t
199 yards
25 touches
Mark Ingram
4.6 y/c, 8.3 y/r, 4.8 y/t
230 total yards
48 touches
Gus Edwards
5.6 y/c, 0 rec, 5.6 y/t
192 total yards
34 touches
FREE JK DOBBINS PLEASE
Asking for everyone
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You don't need to break tackles when you're fast enough to run away from people
Rushing attempts this season:
Javonte Williams - 103 👀
Jonathan Taylor - 161
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2K
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Week 15 touch shares
Jonathan Taylor 74.1%
D'Andre Swift 70.4%
JK Dobbins 51.7%
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Someone said "didnt we just do this in 2020 with Clyde Edwards-Helaire?" In reference to Bijan Robinson.
First, no, CEH was not the RB1 in his class for three years.
Second, CEH was elevated by landing spot post draft and 1 great season in the best offense ever.
Third, stop it
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Ya grew up together. He taught ya how to chew up socks and you taught him how to turn the outdoor faucet on every day. Last time ya were together was the last day of his life. She's coming home to see ya now old man. Take care of her 😢
RIP sweet girl
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🏈RBPC Analytic Model📈
➡All in 1, unique and standard RB analysis
➡Prospect analysis/comparison, Draft capital and FF/NFL potential, NFL RB analysis
➡Historical/Future RB Classes from 2005-23 and on!
📝Article⤵
📊Database⤵
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JT 📈
CEH 📈
JK 📈
Swift (even though he missed)📈
Looking at you Mr Akers👀
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Apparently, for a kid coming out of college that you could potentially sign to a multi-million dollar contract, being a "loner" off the field is a... concern?
Seems like an ass backward way of thinking to me.
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2024 RB class (as of now)
120 declares, all star event invites, or no eligibility remaining
⬇️Overall Performance (p/g PTG = PTG factors in volume, production, age, injury, athleticism, competition, and experience - not final until testing)
Not rankings.
Because PTG values...
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Today is a rough one. Spending every last min I can with my best friend of 15 1/2 years before we say goodbye 💔. Love those pets folks, best friends you can ask for. Still wagging that tail I love you Gunner❤
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ANNOUNCEMENT🚨
I am happy to announce the launching of the new uniqueRBanalytics Patreon page!
Evaluate RB prospects in a different way using the RBPC model and tool!
There's a free piece up to check out on a bit of a polarizing prospect in the 22 class
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Not gonna lie, I like watching Mariota run this offense more than Carr.
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I may draft robust RB...
I may draft anchor RB...
I may draft zero RB...
Most of that will be dictated by how the rest of the league is drafting though. Not by a set strategy prior to the draft.
Ya can have an idea but be willing to move away from it.
Be flexible...
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2022 RB Draft Projections Thread
First, a few things to keep in mind for this year's projections. They were a different animal...
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Jonathan Taylor
The RB1 we were promised
The RB1 we wanted
The RB1 we needed
The RB1 we will never deserve
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@tomstakes
It's 495 (not 450) and front squats are way different than a traditional squat. Especially with reps, this is impressive!
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So ready for Jonathan Taylor to exceed all expectations in 2021🔥
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2023 RB Class Usage Designations (pending athletic testing)
First, here is an example of the importance of each requirement for the designations and where they have been drafted historically (2005-22).
Also pictured: receiving upside designation, risk rating, competition...
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#2021RBPC
is live!
▶All in 1, unique, standard, and predictive analytic RB analysis
▶Historical RB Prospect analysis
▶NFL & FF analysis
30 2024 Recruits
179 2021-23 Prospects
311 2005-20 Drafted
76 UDFAs
▶Article
▶Database
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The 2023 RB class⬇️
Banner year(4) for the uniqueRBanalytics/RBPC
#NFLDraft
capital projections!!
2023
Final Proj Rnd-90%
Avg Rnd-87.32%
Proj Order-86%
2022
Final-85.7%
Avg-83.45%
Order-75.18%
2021
Final-85.71%
Avg-83.46%
Order-78.71%
2020
Final-84.91%
Avg-80.94%
Order-75.2%
2023 uniqueRBanalytics Draft Capital Projections Thread
First, a few words...
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Zach Evans- some quick thoughts about an interesting eval
Obviously, there was an issue with team rules in high school costing him the oppo to play in the state championship game (which he publicly apologized for during an interview at UA All-American Game). Georgia releasing...
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If were gonna overreact to Week 1, let's go all the way.
CEH 16 game pace
400 carries, 2208 yards, 16 TDs
0 rec on 16 targets, 0 yards, 0 TDs
316.8 PPR points
316.8 1/2 points
316.8 standard points
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We may never really see the ceiling for JK Dobbins while playing with Lamar and Gus and it makes me sad😢
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Goodnight buddy, chew all the socks you want now. Rest in piece ❤
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Well, here's one for ya...
Through 11 games in Week 1, Jonathan Taylor leads all rookies in receptions and receiving yards.
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🔥R.B.P.C.🔥
The Running Back Prospect Comparison Model is live!
Helping project draft capital and potential FF value.
Article/Database:
Database:
(Please feel free to copy, leave any comments/Qs on original)
Hope y'all enjoy!🙏
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Top24 RBs through 5 weeks (PPR)
The RB1s
1 King Henry
2 Household Name
3 Najee
4 Zeke
5 Hunt
6 CPat
7 Swift
8 Jones
9 Kamara
10 JRob
11 JT
12 Chubb
The RB2s
13 Gibson
14 Mixon
15 Fournette
16 Henderson
17 Quon
18 Edmonds
19 Gaskin
20 Williams
21 MG3
22 Monty
23 Pollard
24 CMC
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DJ Moore's TD rate 2018-2020 (10/335)
2.98%
DJ Moore TD rate 2021 (3/43)
6.97%
Bout time
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Can you imagine taking a smaller, sub par athletic guy with 1 year of production at the 1.01 over a big, elite athletic freak that averaged 2000 yards for 3 straight years?
I know, me neither😉
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And with his testing today now official, Bijan Robinson has joined Saquon, Zeke, JT, and Bush as the 5th A+ graded overall prospect profile in the RBPC
@Marcus_Mosher
I have only 4 A+ graded RB profiles since 2005 (Quon, Zeke, JT, Bush). Bijan does not have to run 4.4 to meet the requirements to be the 5th. He's never had Quon's wheels but he wins every other way. He would grade with the 2nd highest profile upside behind only Barkley.
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College Wear & Tear, the RB Position, & You
Common misconceptions regarding college wear & tear & the ways it can lead you astray when evaluating RB prospects and their potential ceiling in the NFL game today
Just a warning before we go. This will not be short, but...
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Josh Allen has a better comp% (64.1%) than Aaron Rodgers👀, Carson Wentz, Matt Stafford, kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, Baker Mayfied, Big Ben, 13 other qualified QBs in 2019...
8 QBs currently have a comp% >70%.
1. D Prescott 74.5%
2. G Minshew 73.9%...
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So have y'all cooled on that Javonte Williams top 5 RB in dynasty talk yet or is that still a thing?
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Huh... it appears Kyren Williams is, in fact, not too slow or small to be effective in the NFL.
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2021 Running Back Draft Thread
Travis Etienne
2nd RB Taken (Mid/Late 1st)/Proj 1st Taken (Early 2nd)
Round 1: Pick 25 Jacksonville Jaguars
Prospect Profile Grade: A
Chance For Success > Avg: +32.51%
Risk Rating: 1
Capital: ✔️
Landing Spot: ✔️- (for now)
BMI: ✔️
Size: ✔️
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How crazy are people going to get when Joshua Kelley out snaps, touches, and produces Austin Ekeler this week?
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Twitter will be higher on Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet, and Rachaad White than the NFL will be.
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//RB Draft Thread//
I've been working on a metric to try and help determine whether the physical toll an RB takes in college can help predict reliability or future performance. Still fine tuning the formula but here are some of the early findings.
2005-2016, there have...
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Keep fading JT. Ill gladly take him.
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RB Prospect Visits
Note: I believe I got them all. May have some marked wrong. Some sources had players listed that others didn't so it took some digging.
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As it sits right now:
2023-Tony Pollard is a UFA
2022-Zeke Elliott carries a 23.2 million dollar dead cap hit
2023-That drops to 6.7 million (2.6 mil in 2024)
Right in time for this loaded (2020-esq) 2023 RB class
Tony Pollard is never gonna be what y'all want him to be
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Does Williams opting out drastically change the volume for CEH?
Kareem hunt got 325 tch. You think he's getting that? Hunt handled 19.43 touches per game over the course of his college career (CEH 11.55).
In the last 16 years, here is the list of RBs to average fewer than 12...
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Dudes gonna hit ignore next time the call
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So I figured I was waiting until 2020 for my shot but no sir, im in
#SFB9
! Thank you so much
@ScottFish24
for doing such a great job with his work with
#FantasyCares
and for the opportunity to swim with the sharks cuz I'm just a gold fish in this world. Comin for ya
@FFStompy
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So I keep hearing ignore the freshman year. It does not matter. Ill do that for a min. I will not ignore the sophomore year though. Sorry, but it absolutely matters.
In his final 2 seasons, CEH averaged 15.25 touches per game. There are 157 backs (2005-19) that averaged...
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2020 Running Back Draft Thread: 3/16
Jonathan Taylor (The RBPC Poster Child)
Round 2: Pick 41 to the IND Colts
3rd RB Taken/ Proj 1st RB (Early 2nd)
Prospect Grade: A+
Chance For Success: 98.33%
Risk Rating: 1 (0-5)
Capital ✔
Landing Spot ✔
Size ✔
BMI ✔
Speed ✔
Age ✔...
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Thread
How much does speed matter when it comes to being drafted vs succeeding in today's NFL at RB?
For this exercise, I have combined the 2020 class in the 2015-2019 sample as well as the RBs that ran <4.4 with the 4.4-4.499 based on much smaller samples.
Here we go...
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Just heard 2 large fantasy analysts say they would take Devin Singletary>Leonard Fournette for 2020...
Naahh fam, this isn't it...
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Warning: Long Thread
A comparison of the RB1 and 2 in the 2025 class
Nick Singleton - Penn State vs Quinshon Judkins - Ole Miss
2022 was a great year for both of these freshman RBs. They got there a bit differently & obviously had different initial expectations.
Let's dig in.
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Using successful outliers to argue that the next outlier profile WILL succeed is bad process.
Outliers are outliers because they hit at a low rate.
Locks are locks because they hit at a high rate.
There are exceptions to every rule but give me the best shot, every time...
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Hit 3500 followers this morning. Thank you to the new ones and the ones that were following previously. Appreciate you all and remain humbled every day that people take the time to look at the stuff I pour my heart into every day. Ill continue to bust my ass and try to get...
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@AishiaDeal
Derek Carr can be an effective deep ball passer.
That ought to get the friends and fam scrambling
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So everyone is aware, Bijan Robinson is 2023's 1.01
Send tweet
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🔥2020Projections🔥
32 teams in 32 days: Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff
Goff took a big step back in 2019 in terms of efficiency but volume was no issue as he threw it o we 600 times last year. Did teams figure out the offense or did Goff regress considerably? Likely somewhere...
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Everyone is out here trying to be the most "right" about CeeDee Lamb's dynasty value or choosing their sides on the "engagement farming/content creation" debates lately.
I'm just out here trying to tell you Kyren Williams isn't too small to be good in the NFL.
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Digging into Najee Harris
For all, Harris is a Top 2/3 running back in the 2021 class. His college career began playing behind...
Damien Harris
Bo Scarbrough
Jalen Hurts (led team in attempts)
...and ahead of...
Josh Jacobs
Brian Robinson Jr
In year 2, Harris again played...
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Let's look at the Jahmyr Gibbs vs the Jamaal Charles profile...
They're not exactly the same when you watch them but that's not really what we are going to look at
The notion is that Charles was a much higher volume & much more efficient rushing prospect
Jahmyr Gibbs ceiling to floor
Production/athleticism comps inside the Bellcow Light, Committee +, Satellite +, & Satellite Usage Designations.
These four UDs have similarities. The UD tree below shows how UDs branch based on what's needed to receive them as well as their avg...
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I called for it in 2019.
Nope...
I called for it in 2020.
Nope...
Lets run it back once more in 2021.
Blake Jarwin break out comin...
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Just watched the movie Knock Knock with Keanu Reeves
Moral of the story: Don't watch the movie Knock Knock with Keanu Reeves...
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Digging into Javonte Williams
A lot has been made of the breakout season for Williams but he really had a mini breakout his soph year.
Williams freshman year was very limited. He played in 10/11 games and totaled just 43 att and 8 rec. But, the running backs as a whole were...
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Highest per game performance grades for RB prospects - 2005-2021
Rhamondre Stevenson😍
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2023 RB class
Overall performance grade (PTG) p/g
These factor in usage, production, age, injury, athleticism (unofficial until testing - estimate based on formula for league average athleticism), and competition
Below is how the PTG metric correlates with draft capital as...
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Cam Akers had 27 total touches with 24 on the ground against the top run D in his third game back from a torn Achilles that happened in the summer. Sony Michel had 3 touches.
I don't care in the least about the yards produced or fumbles. I care about the touches handled.
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What's an offense you love this year?
Not just which team you expect to be the best. Which offense to do predict to return the most value?
Mine: Detroit Lions
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Bijan Robinson by the numbers...
By now you know the name and you have seen the big plays made by the Texas Longhorns 5-star running back.
Using the data, let's look at the level of prospect he is and the level he is on a path to becoming. It is a height not often reached...
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Don't go into 2021 looking for the next Antonio Gibson, or James Robinson. You're setting yourself up for failure.
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1. Final uniqueRBanalytics results for 2022 RB class (Draft, prior to adding accuracy for UDFAs)
UDFAs
2. Best available
3/4. The rest
This is why we don't rank non combine invites high folks. And their chance to get drafted actually went up slightly this year too (3.7%).
2022 RB Draft Projections Thread
First, a few things to keep in mind for this year's projections. They were a different animal...
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Who's the RB1
HUGE Quinshon Judkins vs Nick Singleton thread coming tomorrow!
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Jonathan Taylor may not have been hyper efficient on the ground, had a TD called back, and Hines had double digit touches
In a game they were losing JT caught 6 passes, led the team in receiving yards, and had 23 touches
With 12 total RB receptions with Wentz
JT is just fine
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25 2020-24 RBs (No DC/NFL bias - right now) ranked tiers for UPSIDE through my lens
*Provided there's enough data*
JT/Bijan/TreVeyon
.
Swift/Etienne/Gibbs
JKD/Hall/Tucker
.
Gibson/Cam/Evans
.
AJD/Allen/Walker/Javonte
Najee/Tank/Shipley
.
Spiller/CEH/Vaughn
Carter/Stevenson/Moss
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The feeling when you faded CEH from the jump and the timeline is catching up
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Seeing Rhamondre picked in all these "this guy or that guy" questions...
Bill gonna fuck around and give Bolden 15 touches and goal line work or some shit if we're not careful😭
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Can you imagine if teams had figured out how to use Cordarrelle Patterson a long time ago
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Henry Ruggs ranks 96th among WRs with 47.3 ppr points
-41.86% came in one game
-30.02% came on one play
In standard its 84th with 34.3 points
-51.89% came in one game
-38.48% came on one play
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Tank Bigsby context tweet
Strength of team run blocking in college amongst this year’s RB class
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Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Alabama
Usage Designation - Bellcow Light
Receiving Upside - High
Risk Rating - 2
Competition Grade - A (P5 3 years)
PTG Injury % -4.18% (Low)
Avg Proj. DC - 2.60 (Range of Outcomes - Late First->Late Third)
Jahmyr Gibbs has been the RB2 in the 2023 class...
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