1/ Very excited to publish newest @CSIS piece with @IFPRI's @JoeGlauber1. We're finally able to answer important questions about changes in ag trade since Russia invaded Ukraine. Learn more in this 🧵.

Resilient food & water resources is one of @NATO's baseline requirements for resilience. @CSISFoodWater was pleased to contribute to the Food Security Track at @MunSecConf 2025 with @CropTrust and @CIMMYT. Food security is security @CSIS

13/ Increased investments in Ukraine’s agriculture sector would put more Ukrainian grains on markets, offering alternatives to Russia's exports and supporting Ukraine’s economy at the same time.

12/ Policymakers should take into account Russia’s real and growing influence, through food exports, in the Global South:

11/ Global food prices and global food insecurity hit record highs after Russia invaded Ukraine. Today, Russia is using food for influence in the very places made food-insecure by Russia’s war:

10/ On Feb. 21, Russian news reported the completion of transfers of free Russian wheat to six African countries. Story was likely timed to counteract attention to the impacts of Russia’s war on global ag markets and global food security.

9/ Russia’s fertilizer exports have rebounded for each type of fertilizer except anhydrous ammonia. Even while fertilizer exports dipped in 2022, Russia’s revenue from fertilizer sales soared due to global spikes in fertilizer prices caused by Russia's war.

8/ Russia’s exports of wheat increased to every region of Sub-Saharan Africa (East, Central, West, Southern) from last year to this year, reflecting Russia’s attempt to bolster support in the region and deflate criticism over Russia’s termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

7/ Meanwhile, the top destinations for Russia's wheat are North Africa and the Middle East. Russia makes up 47% (N. Af.) and 59% (Mid. East) of the market share there.

6/ Ukraine's maize exports to China have fallen. China's reliance on Ukraine for a large proportion of maize imports had served as a counterbalance to Russia/China since 2022:

5/ Ukraine's wheat & maize exports to every region have fallen--except to Europe. Sharp increases in wheat (2% pre-war to 50% today) and maize (36% pre-war to 64% today) exports explain persistent trade tensions bw Ukraine & the EU, and within the EU:

4/ Until now, we haven't known by how much Russia's exports have increased, and by how much Ukraine's have decreased, in certain geographies. Time, innovations in data, and great work by @JoeGlauber1 are making patterns clear.

3/ It was also clear that Russia aimed to use its own ag exports to make up for Ukraine's lost exports--even to "replace Ukrainian grain" for some food-importing countries.

2/ It was always clear that Russia's intentional targeting of all aspects of Ukraine's ag system would reduce Ukraine's ag production and exports. At the same time, favorable growing conditions helped Russia's production & exports reach all-time highs.

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