Vixed Signals™
@vixedsignals
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Attempting to read the tea leaves of the volatility complex. I also write stuff on Substack. See link below. Observations only; not advice.
Joined January 2021
Episode 2 of Vol Street Journal™ is live! Link to the video in thread. I explore why calling the VIX the "fear index" is misleading, and why I think of the VIX as the market's heart rate variability instead. $SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $RUT $IWM $VIX $VVIX $VX
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$SPX/ $SPY has round-tripped its way back to its lows from last Friday, and this gives us a good opportunity to get a read on how VOLs are feeling. $VIX, $VVIX, and $VX futures have all printed higher highs relative to Friday, even though SPX has remained off its Friday low. Not
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Update: This morning I was on the lookout for one or more of the megas to flip green, joining $META and $AAPL. Unfortunately, the opposite happened. Without any pockets of strength to lean on, VOLs snapped awake as $SPX cut below 6800. It's been higher highs and higher lows
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Equities are weak to start the session, and that has VOLs bouncing. $VIX is back above 18, playing catchup to $VVIX's outperformance yesterday. How VOLs react to a retest of 6800/680 on $SPX/ $SPY will give us a good look at their overall concern. So far, they look fine. This
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Another sleepy start for $NDX/ $QQQ as the $DJX/ $DIA, $RUT/ $IWM, and $BKX banks outperformance continues. VOLs didn't mind yesterday, and so far, they don't seem to mind today. If the current leaders start to weaken, we'll want to see reversals higher in some of the megas.
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$DJX/ $DIA is out in front to start the session along with $BKX banks. $RUT/ $IWM is trying to follow and flip green. It's nice to see this rotation after yesterday's $NDX/ $QQQ, $SOX/ $SMH, and mega cap leadership. VOLs see this action and went back to bed. $VIX is holding
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Apparent resolution of the government shutdown has given risk assets a shot of adrenaline and sent VOLs lower. $VX futures are still ~1 vol away from their lows but they're a long way from their Friday spike highs. The VOL drop is adding back some steepness to the VX curve, which
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Selling picked up into the close yesterday lifting VOLs off their lows. This was after VOLs printed their first lower lows (on a daily basis) in seven sessions. With the selling continuing this morning, VOLs are once again perky. There's something to be learned from relative
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After another eventful overnight session during which $VX futures went to new highs, we opened this morning to find VOLs quickly retreating. In my update yesterday, I pointed out that VOLs didn't look overly concerned. That aged poorly last night but is holding true again today
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Update: $META and $AMZN flipped red but $AAPL flipped green. Seems that kept a lid on things. Despite the wide selling, VOLs don't look that concerned. $SPX closed at the lows yet $VIX and $VVIX are off their highs, and $VX futures never got back to their overnight highs. VOLs
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Overnight weakness and the cash open gap down across the indexes has VOLs a little jumpy this morning. $VIX failed at an attempt at 20, and $VVIX wasn't able to make it to 110, so I'm hard pressed to see this as anything major for now. VOLs are quickly looking heavy on the early
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The Monday mechanical $VIX pop has a little extra pep in its step despite a strong $NDX/ $QQQ and megacap open. As I discussed in this weekend's @volstreetj video (see pinned post), when VOLs refuse to relax like this, it's noteworthy. The fact that this is happening after
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$AMZN +11% does a lot of good for $SPX/ $SPY and $NDX/ $QQQ but it's not enough, so far, to get VOLs to relax. $VIX won't give up 16, $VVIX can barely get into double digits, and $VX futures are flat/green. ICs are climbing again while SPX constituent VOL sinks as we move further
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With FOMC behind us and mostly constructive headlines on the US-China front, $SPX/ $SPY and $NDX/ $QQQ are having to content with mixed market reactions to earnings out of $META (selling), $GOOGL (buying), and $MSFT (selling), with $AAPL and $AMZN on deck for this afternoon.
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Another round of new highs for $SPX/ $SPY, $NDX/ $QQQ, and $DJX/ $DIA ahead of today's FOMC. Similar to yesterday, VOLs are holding firm. $VIX is attempting to lift off from 16 while $VX futures fight to stay green. I'm not reading too much into the pre-FOMC action but new highs
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Decent follow through on the equity front with $SPX/ $SPY, $NDX/ $QQQ, and $DJX/ $DIA hitting new highs (again). $RUT/ $IWM is lagging, but small caps can do whatever they'd like when the mega caps are nearly all green and at or approaching all-time highs. The VIX complex is
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Near the end of Friday's morning note, I wrote, "...I suspect we've seen the majority of the VOL downside move for now." I wrote that because $VVIX was already in the 90s and we were set to go into this week with the Trump/Xi-US/China trade issues unresolved. The weekend progress
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