Ulas Bilgenoglu
@ulasbilgen
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Co-founder of @stonkiai. Building the democratization of investment advisory. Already checked the bucket list item -Build a fintech unicorn.
United Kingdom
Joined June 2009
$NVDA is DOWN -$5.60 to $175.90! This is exactly what I predicted earlier. Here's what happened: The Results (After Hours) BEAT: Revenue $44.1B vs $43.3B expected, BEAT: EPS $0.81 vs $0.74 expected, RAISED: Q3 guidance $52.9-55.1B vs $52.96B expected, BONUS: $60B buyback
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Major Earnings After Hours: $MDB - $0.67 EPS expected vs $1.00 prior - Cloud database play, $OKTA - $0.77 EPS expected vs $0.86 prior - Identity management, $BOX- $0.26 EPS expected vs $0.30 prior, $PVH - $2.26 EPS expected vs $2.30 prior, $NCNO - $0.16 EPS expected vs $0.16
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There seems to be a good buyer at $69-$70 band for $FIG. I'm following it for some more Put or Call Credit Spreads and seems to be bouncing from that range.
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Friday Market Wrap-Up π Major Market Moves π β’ $SPY: +1.2% to $645.31 (broad rally on Fed pivot) β’ $QQQ: +1.3% to $571.97 (tech benefited from rate cut hopes) β’ $IWM: +3.3% to $234.83 (small caps led on dovish tilt) β β’ $TLT: +0.3% to $87.05 (bonds rallied on easier
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@stonkiai updated view: π¨ INTEL ($INTC) GAME CHANGER: From distressed play to gov-backed asset! - Trump admin exploring 10% stake + SoftBank $2B at $23. - Up 18% today. - Now betting on US industrial policy vs pure turnaround. - Entry $24.50-25, target $28-30. Join Stonki
stonki.ai
AI-powered investment advisor for options and stock strategies. Monitor complex option strategies, swing trades, and day trading ideas with real-time alerts and intelligent analysis, no coding needed.
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7/7 βοΈ FINAL VERDICT Intel = compelling strategic thesis but broken execution. For 6M-2Y timeline, risk/reward doesn't justify entry at current levels. Wait for proof of concept before betting on this turnaround story.
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6/7 π MY (Stonki's) RECOMMENDATION WAIT for operational improvement signals: β Positive free cash flow β Revenue stabilization β Major foundry customer wins Better alternatives: $NVDA $AMD $TSM offer actual profitability + growth
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5/7 π― INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT (6M-2Y TIMEFRAME) β HIGH RISK TURNAROUND PLAY - May take 3-5 years for meaningful recovery - 50%+ downside risk still possible - Requires high conviction + patience - Not suitable for momentum traders
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4/7 π° VALUATION: CHEAP FOR A REASON - Trading 0.94x book value (historically low) -Below intrinsic value IF turnaround works -But "cheap" can get cheaper when fundamentals are broken - Cash burn rate unsustainable without improvement
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3/7 β οΈ BUT EXECUTION RISKS ARE MASSIVE - Ohio fab delayed to 2030 - Foundry break-even pushed to 2027 - Still 2-3 generations behind TSMC - Weak external foundry customers - Policy/tariff uncertainty - Poor track record on promises
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2/7 πΊπΈ THE "PLAN B TO TSMC" THESIS - PARTIALLY VALID β
STRATEGIC POSITIVES: - Only major US advanced semiconductor manufacturer - CHIPS Act support (though delayed) - New Intel-TSMC JV (20% TSMC stake) - National security imperative - New CEO Lip-Bu Tan = turnaround expertise
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1/7 π CURRENT FINANCIAL REALITY - MAJOR RED FLAGS - Trading at $21.49 (near 52-week low $17.66) - LOSING MONEY: -$4.47 EPS, -36% net margins - BURNING CASH: -$12.8B free cash flow - Revenue declining -4% YoY - Destroying value: -18.7% ROE This is a company in crisis mode π¨
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So I asked about INTC on 20th June to @stonkiai Here is Stonki's reply, do you think it's still valid? π§΅ INTEL ($INTC) DEEP DIVE on June 20 2025
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π Market Wrap by Stonki AI - August 8, 2025 π Major Indices Performance β’ SPY: +0.78% to $637.18 π Strong finish near highs β’ QQQ: +0.93% to $574.55 π New all-time high! β’ IWM: +0.22% to $220.32 β‘ Small caps lagging β’ GLD: -0.02% to $313.05 π₯ Record highs despite
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Critical Events This Week (August 11-16, 2025), π₯HIGHEST PRIORITY EVENTS, -------------------------------------------------------- ποΈTuesday, August 12: πUS CPI (Core & Headline) - 8:30 AM ET - Forecast: 2.8% YoY vs 2.7% prior, - CRITICAL for Fed policy expectations and market
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If you're a productivity geek, you have to try this: Today: Work on things that matter https://t.co/N0RSejJH7m via @emreoktem
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