The whole ‘people are going to forever leave big cities and telecommute from cheap suburbs’ strikes me as 1) being advanced by pundits who already live in suburbs (projection) and 2) the latest example of recency bias
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“There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments.” -
@CapEconUS
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@ukarlewitz
It's cheap prospectivism. Like when people thought in the eighties that we would be piloting flying cars in 2020.
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@ukarlewitz
Yeah, people don’t live in NYC/LA/SF just for the jobs. SF engineer at Google isn’t moving to Missouri from The Mission for a cheap house.
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@ukarlewitz
Cool kids gonna stay in Brooklyn. Marginal wannabes may flee Manhattan. “As is custom...”
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@ukarlewitz
It is the reverse. Employers encourage telecommuting as this increases the size of labor pool from one of city and immediate suburb to entire country and even the world --> resulting in lower wages / cost to the firm. Individuals will need to move to lower COL areas to survive.
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@ukarlewitz
Right?! But then I never imagined a day when elevators were logistical nightmares, public transportation struck the fear of God into people, and eating out, going out would be so difficult... maybe it’s not forever. I hope not, but it’s not as quick as people want or anticipate
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@ukarlewitz
Won’t happen immediately... but the WFH movement will have an impact over 50 years. I wouldn’t be buying apartment buildings in big cities
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@ukarlewitz
Always
#bullish
but US has decided
#covid19
#coronavirus
deaths over 100k within months inconsequential to
#economy
as a
#pandemic
? Years for these death totals to occur with consequences...WWI: 116k...WWII: 405k...Civil War: 655k $SPX $SPY $QQQ
#stocks
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@ukarlewitz
fwiw (not saying I am the mainstream) - I have owned/lived in NYC since 1987....put my apartment up for sale today and moving to Maine
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@ukarlewitz
@KHerriage
I'll take the other side of this trade.
Betting on cities is a bet on the peaceful coexistence of diffrnt groups in what is now a multicultural nation
Betting on suburbs is a bet that more people will choose to ditch diversity and live among people they share more in common with
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@ukarlewitz
There has been a migration going on4years...N&NE to S&SE... that may accelerate.High$$$tax states w/poor publicHealthCare?
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@ukarlewitz
Wrong - it couldn't be more obvious the 'blue states' & cities have been imploding for years! Even before this so called crisis my entire family fled Chicago for 'more sane' areas of the country - the Dems/Libs DESTROY everything they touch...
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@ukarlewitz
It's surprising that the airline stocks got crushed. After all, nobody was ever going to fly again after 9/11 so no-fly should have been priced in. Likewise for rents in high-rise buildings.
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@ukarlewitz
It comes from the same class of people who coined and imposed the term “gig worker/economy”. They get giddy over any disruption to worker security that they can portray as a “new normal”.
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@ukarlewitz
dunno... being unable to telecommute full time has been the singular obstacle to my family leaving the city, rats, density, trash, crackheads banging on my door at 1am, etc. for years. good riddance. we're gone this year.
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@ukarlewitz
IMO this trend of moving to cheaper suburbs is already in place. Pandemic will only accelerate it.
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@ukarlewitz
Nyc will survive and thrive, im sure of it.
That said, it will change in the near term
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