Two weeks later and ‘retail’ sentiment is still weak (-29%). Same conclusion $spx Tweet added by Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz

Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

Two weeks later and ‘retail’ sentiment is still weak (-29%). Same conclusion $spx

Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

Likewise, AAII bulls minus bears at -25% this week. That’s bearish sentiment. A durable low in a bull market, but not in a bear market $spx

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Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

4 week retail sentiment (AAII) now lowest since March 2009. Meaningful in a bull market, not in a bear market

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Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

Sentiment round-up Bearish: AAII, Consensus, fund flows, Fear & Greed Bullish: II, Panic/Euphoria, one-month CPCE Neutral: NAAIM, DSI, 10-day CPCE

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Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

Michael Santoli

@michaelsantoli

4 years

Sentiment setup for stocks shows more confusion than conviction with the market at an indecisive spot. Traditional retail: scared. Hot-money tactical players: greedy. Professional money: in between. “Everyone” is neither bullish nor bearish. New column.

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Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

SentimenTrader

@sentimentrader

4 years

@ukarlewitz Most of those are included in this model, and you're spot on - a very mixed bag.

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Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

Fund managers surveyed by BAML: - High cash (5.7%) - Bond weight highest in 10 yrs - Still high equity underweight (1.8% std dev below mean) - Within equities: US weight highest in 5 yrs, Europe lowest in 8 yrs (flight to safety)

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Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

One month equity only put/call (0.59) at a level where $SPX often runs into some turbulence. If it runs higher now, those gains usually (but not always) given back

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Urban Carmel

@ukarlewitz

4 years

Likewise:

Steve Deppe, CMT

@SJD10304

4 years

Ran-dumb: When $SPX gains 1% or more today and finishes with trailing 5 & 20 day returns of 5% or more, it's overcooked in the short-term (since Y2K. T+4's closed lower 11 of 12 for average declines of -1.64%. Hey, don't expect any "breakout" to be easy. $spx

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Intelligent Investing, LLC.

@intell_invest

4 years

@ukarlewitz @macrofollower Which is a rather weird reading because those same AAII investors were actually mostly buyers during the recent volatility they said. Put your money where you mouth is or liar liar pants on fire!?

AAII SentimentSurvey

@AAIISentiment

4 years

How have individual investors responded to this year's market volatility? Many AAII members have stayed with their strategies.

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Piesdeplomo

@piesdeplomo74

4 years

@ukarlewitz nice info. thanks.

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Ivan Labrie

@ivan_labrie

4 years

@ukarlewitz Trend is up:

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@peyton976

4 years

@ukarlewitz Silly silly bears. Most are scratching their heads. Folks. Stay away from divergences, some said lows were going to be retested in a month. They were wrong. Nazzy going to new highs here

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@peyton976

4 years

@ukarlewitz Most are arguing saying this is a bear market? How. Nazzy is close to all time highs

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PO

@PO67910065

4 years

@ukarlewitz CA staring at $54B budget shortfall predicting an 18% unemployment rate. Doesnt sound very V'ish recovery

California faces $54B budget deficit

A $41B revenue shortfall is expected as economic fallout from the coronavirus grips the state.

www.politico.com

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Tulip Futures - Lion AI powered

@hello_all

4 years

@ukarlewitz as far as i can see all the people have started buying stocks as earning were so great.

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Listen to the Lion

@79woodward

4 years

@ukarlewitz Trade figures out today. Who cares?

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notes

@cynicstuff

4 years

@ukarlewitz I really suspect the AAII is a bit banjaxed at the moment because of the wall of Tech-bro Robinhood money. These guys have probably never heard of AAII and their views are not being captured.

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