Tom Randall
@tsrandall
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Senior reporter covering the future of transportation+energy at Bloomberg @business . Opinions are, too often, my own.
New York, NY
Joined May 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
Tesla co-founder JB Straubel has built an EV-battery colossus in the scrublands of Nevada. He spent the day giving me the first look at everything
@redwoodmat
has been building.
It starts with *30 acres* of old batteries headed headed for recycling 🧵
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This gorgeous new BBC chart shows how the coldest days on Earth now are warmer than the hottest days before the 1980s.
You know who predicted this would happen with near-perfect precision? Exxon Mobil scientists, in an internal report in 1982. Two versions of the same chart:
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Tesla has started a price war between battery and internal combustion engine cars, and it's just getting started🧵
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This
@exxonmobile
chart from 1982 predicted that in 2019 our atmospheric CO2 level would reach about 415 parts per million, raising the global temperature roughly 0.9 degrees C.
Update: The world crossed the 415 ppm threshold this week and broke 0.9 degrees C in 2017 1/
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ChatGPT saved me an hour of spreadsheet work today. It wrote a complex sorting script beyond my ability, explained how it works, and helped me deploy it.
The party tricks have been fun, but this was a whoa moment for me similar to the first time I used Google Search.
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American broomstick maker
@elonmusk
has 53 orbital launches scheduled for this year, which is more than Russia has flown since 1992
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There are some crazy misconceptions out there about crime in NYC. Yes, crime has increased since the pandemic, but the city is still much safer than most of America 1/
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Finally, Tesla’s product roadmap is probably the best in the biz—if they can stick to it. Our analysis last year showed that Musk typically blows his own deadlines by about 50% of the original projection 9/
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Again we see Model 3 satisfaction through the roof. Almost 99% of owners say they’d recommend it to friends and family, and that’s a huge part of how Tesla has grown so quickly. Every person I interviewed told me about taking friends for test drives 6/
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As one owner said, “Quality is measured in different ways.” Notwithstanding initial flaws, they raved about their cars. A near-unanimous 99.6% of respondents said the Model 3 is a pleasure to drive. It’s hard to find such consensus over anything really 5/
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Tesla has achieved Super Bowl marketing nirvana: players from both teams talking up their cars with no one getting paid to do it
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Tesla's new Easter egg makes the world's fastest car even faster
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Once Tesla started cranking out Model 3s, its cash flows made a U-turn. Every analyst surveyed by Bloomberg now expects a Q4 profit—a reversal from last spring. 2019 free cash flow expectations flipped from -$795 million to +$837 million 5/
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Here’s another from
@exxonmobile
1982. It showed how global warming would initially be almost indistinguishable from normal climate fluctuations. But by 2020 there could be no doubt—the old "normal" would be entirely left behind. Welcome to the future 2/
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First up: Tesla’s production numbers. After struggling to make the Model 3 for 18 months, everything changed in Q3. It took 10 years for Tesla to sell its first half-million electric cars. It’ll take just 15 months to reach its first million 2/
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In the closing weeks of 2018, Tesla’s market cap overtook Daimler’s as the third most-valuable automaker—they’ve since gone back and forth—even though Tesla is nowhere close to the revenue, earnings or capital resources of these global competitors 4/
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NYC's murder rate of 5.5 per 100,000 last year is lower than the state averages for Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, S. Carolina, Tennessee, Maryland, Illinois, New Mexico, Georgia, Delaware, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Oklahoma, Michigan, North Carolina, cont..
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In the second half of 2018, the Model 3 was the fifth best-selling sedan in the U.S.—outsold only by Toyotas and Hondas—despite an average selling price of more than $55k. No other car brought in more revenue in the U.S. 3/
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Tesla’s Autopilot vindicated in NHTSA probe that shows a 40% drop in crashes
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Tesla's Model 3 just took back the trophy for cheapest electric range
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The
@exxonmobil
climate memo was one of several fascinating documents unearthed in 2015 by a Pulitzer-finalist series of stories by
@insideclimate
reporters
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Life expectancy in NYC in 2019 was higher than any U.S. state, at 81.3 years (edging out Hawaii at 81). That might have taken a hit from Covid, but it remains a great place to raise kids and grow old together.
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Tesla just won some new bragging rights: Its Fremont factory cranked out more cars last year than any other auto plant in North America 1/
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The charts above was from a summary of the best climate science in 1982, produced by internal
@exxonmobile
scientists and distributed widely throughout the company, starting with execs. The science has since improved dramatically, but it was very good even back then 3/
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.., Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Alaska, West Virginia, Kansas, Montana, South Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin, California, and Colorado.
As for the subway, your chances of dying in a subway or station are far lower than dying in a car crash in Kansas City 3/
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China has locked down a city of 11 million to slow the spread of the new strain of coronavirus. Latest estimates:
-17 dead
-4k infected
-22+ cities affected in 5-8 countries
-WHO will soon decide on a declaration of global public health emergency
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Here’s another from
@exxonmobil
1982. It predicted that in 2023, our atmospheric CO2 would reach roughly 415 parts per million, raising the global average surface temperature ~1.1 degrees C.
Update: Average CO2 in 2023 was just over 420 PPM and the average temp anomaly 1.18C 2/
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Pedestrians in the US are getting killed by cars at a rate we haven't seen in more than 30 years — and it's happening almost entirely to working-age people dying at night (NYT) 1/
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The US has finally crossed the EV tipping point—the period when technological preferences rapidly flip from early adopters to mainstream demand. If it follows the 18 countries that came before it, a quarter of new cars could be fully electric in 2025 1/
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People still talk about charging speed like it's a long-term obstacle for electric cars. It's not, for several reasons 1/
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Solar power, for the first time, is becoming the cheapest form of new electricity
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Botnet DDoS attack spreads worldwide... wait hang on...I'm hearing this is just a climate change map. Business as usual carry on
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Tesla just traded as a $100 billion company for the first time (in after-hours trading) $tsla
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We're surrounded by houses with totally different roof shingles. Musk just said they're all solar. Mind blown.
#teslasolar
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Tesla shares fell after Nikkei reported that Panasonic is freezing spending on more Gigafactory expansion. Panasonic said it reached 35 GWh/yr capacity in March. That's already enough to build over 500k Model 3/yr+Powerwalls—more than Tesla can handle
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The word "recall" needs to be recalled. This story is about an automatic software update to tweak the font size of a few on-screen indicators.
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Wowow. The back of the Tesla Semi just opened up and out drove a new model of Tesla Roadster.
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Tesla is on a tear
➡️Reaches preliminary battery deal with powerhouse CATL
➡️"Cybertruck" unveiling in two weeks
➡️China factory ready for final approval
➡️S&P B- bond outlook changed to positive from negative
➡️Model Y test cars popping up everywhere
➡️Stock up 80% in 5 months
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Tesla's Model 3 sets a new standard for battery degradation. We surveyed thousands of owners and found that range declines less than 1% for every 10,000 miles driven
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I got some higher-res photos of one of the first Tesla Solar Roofs. Installation looks pretty tight.
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Here's the exchange where Elon Musk cut off two analysts on the Q1 earnings call to go to crowd-sourced questions on YouTube. Shares fell 4.7%, or about $2.4 billion, in after-hours trading
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I was walking home in Brooklyn last night in the rain, 11pm, when I hear a voice call out in the darkness. 1/
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Tesla's Life After Hell. Today we published seven charts (and two retro video-game gifs) showing Tesla's trip to the brink and back in 2018 1/
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A group of Tesla short sellers maintains a shared block list of anyone who tweets positive things about $TSLA. Today I was added to it for posting a summary of today's terminal news. Creating a bulletproof echo chamber seems like unwise investing strategy🤷♂️
Tesla is on a tear
➡️Reaches preliminary battery deal with powerhouse CATL
➡️"Cybertruck" unveiling in two weeks
➡️China factory ready for final approval
➡️S&P B- bond outlook changed to positive from negative
➡️Model Y test cars popping up everywhere
➡️Stock up 80% in 5 months
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It's the first full loop battery supply chain in the US — and probably in the world. Independent Stanford researchers were allowed access to Redwood's data for the most comprehensive real-world study of EV recycling. The environmental savings were 🤯 3/
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Battery recycling shatters the myth of electric-vehicle waste. The upfront emissions from making a battery are paid back after driving just 15,000 miles.
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Redwood is currently recycling batteries at a rate of of 20 GWh/year. That's an extraordinary amount —more than some analysts thought would even be available in the US for a few more years. But it's just a shadow of what's to come 4/
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Interesting EV tax credit details in the new Manchin deal: $7.5k credit per new vehicle and $4k for a used EV (or 30% of price, whichever is less). The credits expire at the end of 2032—with no manufacturer caps. A bunch of new limitations include 🧵1/
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@exxonmobil
The science around climate change has improved dramatically over the last 50 years, but even then the big picture was clear to those who were looking.
BBC chart:
Exxon reports unearthed by
@insideclimatenews
in 2015:
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“The simple truth of it is that it’s a damn hard thing to do," Straubel said. "It's just shocking to me, given how much battery capacity is either online now or being built, and yet 100% of its supply chain is imported.” Gift link:
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A key invention is the RC1, the machine that eats the machine. A giant rotating tunnel slow-cooks batteries at ~300C. It uses almost no energy—a self-perpetuating release from the cooked batteries. No oxygen, no fire, no waste. Gases are trapped & made into industrial products 5/
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The world has reached an Edison-level moment for electricity—everything from solar and batteries to electric motorcycles and heat pumps. We've identified 10 tipping points to show what comes next 🧵1/
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“Once we've changed over the entire vehicle fleet to electric, we’ll only have to replace a couple % each year that’s lost in the process,” says Campbell. “It will become obvious to everyone that it doesn't make sense to dig out of the ground anymore” 7/
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Tesla's Model 3 is outselling every other EV in the US 10 to 1—and looks like that won't change for a while. Mercedes just delayed EQC another year, VW is waiting until 2022, GM has vague plans for 2021. Only big debuts for late 2020 are Rivian and Mustang
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U.S. electric car sales by automaker YTD
100,000 Tesla
8,000 GM
7,000 Nissan
4,000 VW
3,000 BMW
1,000 Jaguar
1,000 Hyundai
1,000 Daimler
1,000 Honda
(Rounded to the nearest 1k. All others round to zero)
Top 10 electric cars in the U.S. YTD:
81,100 Tesla Model 3
10,225 Tesla Model X
8,281 Chevy Bolt
8,200 Tesla Model S
6,946 Nissan Leaf
2,511 BMW i3
2,353 VW e-Golf
1,835 Audi e-tron
1,309 Jaguar I-Pace
552 Smart ED
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I drove a Model 3 today, and it beat my expectations on every level.
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To clarify my first tweet: *for a given day of the year.*
The coldest first days of February now are warmer than the hottest first days 75 years ago, for example.
Today's Februarys don't compare with ye olden Julys — but they could in another 75 yrs.
@tsrandall
IMO, you're using a misleading definition of "hottest" and "coldest". You're conflating these words with the largest and smallest anomalies on a given day. The coldest days now in absolute terms are still far colder than the hottest days in 1940. (see chart)
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Tesla's steady improvements in range show how battery economics drives EV adoption. Take the dual-motor Model S:
2016: 259 miles for $80k (75 kWh)
2019: 373 miles for $80k (100 kWh)
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The whole idea of "closed loop supply chains" always seemed a bit far-fetched. Seeing it in action, just a few miles down the road from Tesla's first battery Gigafactory, shows it's both possible and necessary to break China's stranglehold on the EV supply chain 8/
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A deal by Tesla co-founder J.B. Straubel will supply Panasonic with billions of dollars in critical battery components—made in the USA for the first time 🧵
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The mining impact from EVs and clean energy are trivial compared to what humans do every year for fossil fuels.
(Plus EV minerals will be fully recycled vs single-use fossil fuels)
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300 car chargers were installed at the port of Zeebrugge, Belgium, to charge Tesla Model 3s arriving by ship. Anyone know the biggest charging hub in the world?
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Tesla just released some knockout earnings. Free cash flow of $881 million and a net profit of $312 million. Including the after-hours trading, the stock is up 25% over the past two days. Here are a some of the key takeaways 1/
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The temperatures in the North Atlantic are as far above the previous record as the previous record was above average.
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Breaking on the Bloomberg terminal: the White House has pulled Top Secret clearances from more than 30 staff
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@bhinish
Oil companies have a lot of smart scientists with expertise in geology and physics on staff. Also, it's not unusual for a company to study the risks associated with their products so they can prepare for them.
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SpaceX has won approval to deploy 11,943 satellites for a planetary network of super-speed internet access. (Today it won FCC approval for 7,518 satellites, adding to its previous approval for 4,425 satellites)
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Today we dug into the EV laggards — countries adopting EVs slower than you'd expect based on factors like wealth, new-car sales, urbanicity, industry.
US & South Korea are slowpokes among the 31 post-tipping-point countries — but another country wears the true laggard crown 🧵
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Fully electric cars are smashing all kinds of records in the US:
• 1 million sold in 12 months
• 3 million cumulative
• 7% nationwide market share
• Relentless acceleration in pace
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The new parent company will be able to pursue new areas of interest that had previously been off-limits to Google.
http://t.co/cQQ6A6cOKO
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Top 10 electric cars in the U.S. YTD:
81,100 Tesla Model 3
10,225 Tesla Model X
8,281 Chevy Bolt
8,200 Tesla Model S
6,946 Nissan Leaf
2,511 BMW i3
2,353 VW e-Golf
1,835 Audi e-tron
1,309 Jaguar I-Pace
552 Smart ED
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Problem with Tesla's Model 3: If you order it now, you'll get it by the end of next year. More than half a million reservations on file.
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More batteries will be added to the U.S. grid in 2023 than in all previous years combined.
EIA forecast:
9.4 GW new capacity coming in 2023 vs
8.8 GW current total capacity
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Tesla's opens its Model 3 factory for an exclusive look inside
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Some are asking if I could share the prompt that I used. But that's just it—I'm not an expert in Excel and it wasn't a single well-written prompt. It was more like a long chat with an Excel expert who was eager to help.
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Redwood's industrial campus is a 300-acre slope of buildings in various stages of completion. We followed cell phones and EV batteries recycled into 2500-pound bags of fluffy white lithium, then re-made into delicate foils and cathode CAM—the most valuable EV components 2/
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The story photos were by Reno photographer Emily Najera, who was great to work with. Here's the anode foil machine, a first for the US. The copper is 1/10 thickness of a human hair. An unspooled roll could reach 15 kilometers. Gift link to see more👀: 6/
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The Tesla Semi will go 0 to 60 in 5 seconds—with a trailer!
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Landing rockets on autonomous drone ships used to be science fiction. SpaceX has now done it 48 times. This is the fourth landing for this particular booster
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This healthcare repeal vote could change rules for 15% of U.S. economy with no budget score and no public debate
My guess now is this passes by ONE VOTE.
(They won't make one more vulnerable R vote for this than they have to.)
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For the first time, a senior NASA official has publicly proposed the idea of using SpaceX's Falcon Heavy—instead of its own delayed SLS—to take humans back to the moon in 5 years
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After a decade of being trounced by Tesla Inc., this was supposed to be the year that traditional automakers finally put up a fight for electric cars.
It hasn't turned out that way 🧵 1/
Tesla started the year with a bang and now may end it with another.
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Did we just hit peak oil? Today I went deep on how the future of energy snuck up on us in 2020: 11 charts, 3500 words, 9 photos. You should really check it out, but I will try to distill it here 1/
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🚨Bloomberg's Tesla Model 3 Survey results🚨
In May, we started asking Model 3 owners about what it's like to own a Tesla, and they had a *lot* to say. We’ve crunched 500,000 words of feedback into four days of findings. Today is Part 1: Quality 1/
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Tesla's Model 3 now ranks among America's best-selling cars—a first for an all-electric vehicle
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There it is: Tesla Semi has a 500 mile range at max weight, going 60 mph. That's stunning.
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Congress is considering some major updates to the electric-car tax credit in the upcoming spending bill: 1) After 200k cars are sold by a manufacturer (the current phaseout milestone), the incentive would drop from $7,500 to $7,000 until a new phaseout at 600k cars >>
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Wow.
@ACLU
is granted a nationwide emergency stay on the
#MuslimBan
order. It's temporary, but an important victory
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People underestimate how quickly U.S. electric-car chargers are being deployed. Electrify America now has 350 high-speed charging locations (150kW), with another 110+ coming soon. That's roughly the same density that Tesla had when it unveiled the Model 3 in 2016 1/
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Tesla plans to triple the Supercharger network next year to 18,000. "Eventually you’ll be able to go anywhere on earth."
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Tesla Charging: another stunner. 400 miles of range in 30 minutes. And Tesla guarantees low electricity demand rates using solar and Powerpacks. These specs are better than anyone expected.
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The Model 3 hits a big milestone: 100,000 cars. It took Tesla 14 months to get here, but at the current production rate, they'll hit the next 100,000 in less than 6 months
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Some of Tesla's new Supercharger V3 specs are out, and they're impressive: 250kW charging. On a LR Model 3, that's 18+ miles a minute, or <15 mins of charging per 3 hours of highway driving. And the rates won't be diminished when someone is charging next to you at a split stall
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