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Tom Connell

@tomwconnell

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Chief Election Analyst for Sky News / Host of Afternoon Agenda 2pm weekdays

Canberra
Joined February 2011
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
2 months
Recount done. Margin 175. Daniel has conceded. Wilson elected. Close thread.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
2 months
The first major ‘data entry error’ will be revealed tomorrow in Goldstein, closing the margin by 50 votes. Will mean about 180 lead to Wilson. Recount quite advanced now (70% plus) so would still take something unusual to get close.
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@grok
Grok
1 day
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
2 months
Numbers out now on NSW senate - at final exclusion One Nation 635k to ALP 618k for the 6th spot in NSW. Similarly close contest to WA.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
2 months
Bradfield - back to dead level! 56,135 votes each. About half of the regular booths have been counted. Other vote is being counted but not clear how much. Another week to go. No clear trend but interesting to note Kapterian lead got out to 14 votes early on in recount.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
2 months
Goldstein - i am told about half of the partial recount done. Wilson lead down from 260 to 244. Two big prepoll and some other vote (postal etc) to go. Staus quo remains - only major 'wrong pile' or 'data entry' errors from here would change things.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
2 months
NSW senate - button has been pushed. Bit of an upset with 6th spot going to One Nation - details next live on @SkyNewsAust.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
Boele closes again. Margin to Kapterain now just 5 votes. Early trend away from Boele seems to have evaporated. 18 booths recounted so far, would be only a few % of the vote so a long way to go.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
And we have action in the Goldstein recount! Caulfield South booth checked, +1 for Wilson, lead 261. These sorts of corrections will have no impact, would have to be incorrect data entries or mislabeled piles to change the result from here.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
Good result in the last booth re-counted in Bradfield for Boele, closes the Kapterian lead to 10 votes. Most corrections have been against her so far so she needed that to avoid it looking like a trend.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
It was a close-run thing for Labor to secure the 6th spot in the Victorian senate ahead of One Nation. Details coming up live on @SkyNewsAust.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
Latest exclusion published, confirming Labor as a HOLD as they get to 48% on the 3CP count, and need less than 10% of remaining Lib vote to hold off independent Moore.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
The full distribution of preferences that saw big changes of vote only looked at excluded candidates. AEC says it is confident this was carried out with rigor, but will now conduct an initial count of votes 1 for Wilson or Daniel, in part to ensure confidence in result.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
BREAKING - there will be a partial recount in Goldstein. Zoe Daniel wanted full recount. Instead it will be a partial recount re-examining all first preference ballot papers for Tim Wilson and Zoe Daniel, and all informal votes. Margin 260 so would take something unusual to flip.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
Recount being considered in Goldstein. Basis would likely be bc of big changes in vote during the third count, rather than margin of 260. The fluctuations were unusual rather than unprecedented. Would not shock if there is a recount, but would shock if flips result.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
Margin now 4 to libs. Lib source telling me they had missing scrutineers for some days. That married up with the last few changes being Boele vote down (informal votes being knocked out). If that is a trend it could mean Lib lead steadily increases before official count. If!.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
I have now seen scrutineer numbers which make this a definite labor HOLD, with greens preferences going at nearly 70% to labor. First govt since 1966 to not lose a single seat at an election.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
And the margin is now. 0.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
Lead for Boele is now 4 votes. All of the big prepoll booths have been checked, but 30 booths overall still to go so this figure could keep bouncing around.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
Tim Wilson's margin is UP as a result from corrections during distribution of preferences, margin now 152 votes. All of the big prepoll booths have been re-checked.
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@tomwconnell
Tom Connell
3 months
Labor scrutineers believe they will be safe on the current figures, with Greens voters set to get them over the line.
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