13/13
Markets are not machines. They are millions of people constantly updating their expectations. And the moment the marginal buyer values XCH differently, price will simply follow.

12/13
If Menger is right (and history suggests he was), the real driver for XCH isn’t farming cost or circulating supply. It’s whether the next marginal buyer sees it as useful.

11/13
History shows this pattern repeatedly. Assets sit undervalued while the market misjudges their future utility. Then a narrative shift changes marginal demand.

10/13
This is why markets can ignore something for years. Subjective value hasn’t shifted yet. But when it does, price discovery can happen very quickly.

9/13
The marginal buyer of XCH may not be retail speculation. It may be: • institutions
• enterprises
• regulated asset issuers Different needs → different value perception.

8/13
Under Menger’s framework, value emerges when individuals rank needs. For some participants: sustainability > speed
compliance > anonymity Chia sits exactly in that niche.

7/13
XCH has several potential sources of subjective value: • programmable money
• on-chain assets
• institutional compliance
• energy-efficient consensus

6/13
The real question is: What problem does the marginal unit of XCH solve for the next buyer? If the answer is meaningful, price follows.

5/13
Now apply this to Chia (XCH). Many people assume farming cost should define its value. Menger would say that’s the wrong question.

4/13
Take Bitcoin. The cost of mining doesn’t determine the price. Demand does. Mining cost adjusts to price, not the other way around.

3/13
This means price is not determined by cost of production. It’s determined by the marginal utility someone assigns to the next unit. Crypto markets behave exactly this way.

2/13
Menger’s key insight:
Value is subjective. It doesn’t live in the object.
It lives in the mind of the person who wants it. Markets simply aggregate those preferences into price.

Carl Menger explained in 1871 why value comes from human perception, not production cost. That idea explains crypto better than most modern models. And it especially explains Chia (XCH). Thread (1/13) 🧵 @bramcohen @hoffmang @chinaesq @Securitize @chia_project @DigiByteCoin

🔥 Дівчина не стримала емоцій: Скільки ще ми будемо так жити? Дівчина розповіла історію, від якої неможливо стримати сліз. На заправці до неї підійшла дитина й запропонувала помити фари на авто. Вона відповіла, що не має готівки, але може купити їй щось поїсти. І тоді дитина

12/END
Hope and persistence aren’t catalysts.
Demand, execution, and economic design are.

11/
A 5x–10x repricing isn’t impossible — but it requires new demand dynamics.
Approval alone is not a catalyst. Adoption and incentives are.

10
So the answer isn’t a price target — it’s a conditional framework: • Bull case: Approval + real demand + usage exceeding breakeven → material repricing over years
• Base case: Compliance achieved, adoption niche → sideways / slow decay

9/
Slow execution erodes first-mover advantage.
In crypto, time destroys advantage faster than price does.

8/
Permuto / tokenization took years longer than many expected.
During that time, L1s, L2s, and other tokenized rails — some more institution-friendly — matured significantly.

7/
Condition #3: Execution speed
First-mover advantage only matters if the product ships and scales before others catch up.