J
@theirish_man
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Speculator | Lurker @TicTrades & @EmptyHoldings | NFA |
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Coinbase rank:
March 5th - 44
March 6th - 69
March 7th - 90
March 8th - 123
March 9th - 126
March 10th - 146
Did the retail folk lever up, get rinsed and said ah im done and rage quit?
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Token + Narrative Watchlist 📝
$RLB: I see poloniex has listed it, founder also said “next week will be electric”. I know their long awaited metrics dashboard is launching soon but maybe more exchange listings
$SOL: I feel there is a bit of a discrepancy between metrics and
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Crypto is a bit... Lost. [Recap at the end]
[Reasoning + Explanation]
$BTC is up 76% YTD and $ETH is up 56% YTD - a nice higher low base was on NYE, we pushed from $16.5k to $25k, retraced to $20k, then pushed to $31k, retraced to $25k (perfectly structured market) and now
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$BTC
Staircase up, elevator down.
Absolutely disgusting price action.
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-Saylor buys pushing the market over
-CZ + Binance TWAP over
-4th tap of 28.5k, still heavy resistance
- $ETH Shanghai in 6 days, expect de-risk
-CPI in 6 days, again expect de-risk
-Elon artificial $DOGE pump, euphoria
-Cramer bullish
- $DXY on support
Be wary of downside🫡
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Weekly watchlist 📝
DEFI 1.0
- $MKR I see the co-founder is buying again + showing strength, interesting
- $SNX is a slow grind, but I see they launched a cool perp exchange
- $COMP just continues to move up, wouldn't fade
L2's
- people catching on to the EIP4844 trade etc
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The New Meta/Trend [Cartel Coins + Scam Pumps]
$CYBER , $UNFI , $YGG , $LPT , $BLZ , $TRB - Why do they continue to go up?
RECAP DOWN THE BOTTOM:
Given the sense of apathy in the market and the lack of interest, it has resulted in considerably lower liquidity + participants.
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Going to use this tweet to actually express how I feel regarding $BTC + $ETH + the general market.
(Bottom line is my TLDR thesis lol)
I have done pretty well this month to be honest - I am happy. Best trading month in a long while. I tweeted on Friday I had closed out all of
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$BTC
Monthly close tomorrow, so decided to zoom out a bit.
General thoughts on the market + outlook for 2023:
On the monthly, we can see
#Bitcoin
has rallied into the 2021 lows, which is a major resistance + supply area. If I had a gun to my head here is how I would see it
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Hold on, so $2.1B was single day ETF record.
And we are $1b in, in 10 mins?
Wow
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$BTC
Decided to zoom out.
>Broke out of 9 month resistance at 25k
>Pushed to 31k
>Retested the break out line at 25k
>Now currently pushing looking for that higher high
31k was the 2021 Summer low + has acted as resistance multiple times. Important level.
Scenarios: Strong
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$BTC spot ETF trade & where we are now [recap at end]
2023 has been a great year for crypto, but as we draw to a close, the market is in a bit of a peculiar place right now:
The filing for a spot ETF has arguably been the best thing to happen to crypto, as it legitimises the
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- Arkham alert regarding Mt. Gox + Silk Road comes out 62 mins ago
- 2 mins later Jump clear the books sending hundreds of $BTC to binance
- Rumour turns out to be false
Wow🤣
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1. FTX, the second largest exchange collapsing
2. Crypto banking chokepoint + collapses of crypto related banks, along with global banking scares
3. Binance, now under scrutiny from CFTC
And we are still making year to date highs on $BTC.
Just a note, FUD is temporary.
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Playground for next couple of weeks I'd say:
- SOL:
$SOL, $BONK - Jupiter, Marginfi, Drift airdrops coming, some stimmies for the ecosystem.
- ETH beta:
$OP, $ARB, $ENS, $ARB, $SSV, $PEPE, $BLUR - seems the consensus trade.
- Prior strength:
$INJ, $TIA, $SEI, $SUI [?] -
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Weekly watchlist📝
- $BNB + launchpad token hype
- $ARB + liquidity flow into ecosystem tokens
- Elon hype into 4/20 + sell the news(?)/scalp trades
- LSD's: people realising which LSD's have gained most marketshare
- Trending tokens being shilled. Volatility.
Long and short
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Weekly Watchlist 📝
Slightly shorter one this week:
- $PEPE insane scalping opportunities
- $SOL saga phone launch tomorrow
- $APT major unlock Friday
- $DYDX unlock Wednesday
- $STX hype around it, BRC 20 + $BTC activity
- $DEXT - slept on, dextools has been the most
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$BTC + Market update [Long but comprehensive post, recap down the end]
Let me address the chart first:
Decided to zoom out again, nothing has really changed since my last post. We have pushed into 30-31k level over the past couple of weeks repeatedly: This level is hugely
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Woke up to 20k followers 🫡
Hopefully my twitter has stepped up like I said at 1k followers ;)
Thanks guys, appreciate you all honestly🤝
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Look, I hate being this person, but this Satoshi account just tweeted for the first time in 5 years.
Last time he tweeted: We dropped from $7k - $3.5k in a month.
-50%
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For the $ARB token launch pay attention:
-Hyped token launches the last while have all had the same playbook: $BLUR $OP $APTOS
-Aggressive move up on launch, then slow, controlled sell off, then quick recovery
-I expect Arbitrum to do something similar
🫡👊🏼
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Big enough week ahead:
Wednesday:
- CPI
- $ETH Shanghai
Thursday:
- PPI
- FOMC meeting minutes
Friday:
- Q1 earnings season begins with major banks: $JPM $CITI
Market starved of volatility last few days. I think this week, that changes - be alert 🤝
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@Awawat_Trades
“Picked up some for long term bags” = *5x long no stop loss target 10x from here*
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Anyone in $PEPE who has made life changing gains, please actually change your life.
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$RNDR
Bingo 👊🏼
1 of very very few alt-coin charts that looks really good.
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$BTC
Honestly, pretty similar market structure to a couple weeks ago.
1. Fakeout → trap longs breakout trading → deviate → long flush.
2. Create lower low → trap shorts → aggressive move up → short flush.
3. Repeat..?
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Gm ☕
$INJ hit full TP over night, +11% move.
Happy with this trade because reply guys were in full force...
Banger trade, onto the next one 🤝
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Fake ETF news initial thoughts + lessons:
- Cointelegraph finished. All it takes is one major mess up
- Fake news for news traders is +VE, as your chances of success increase
- Noticed the more 'in tune with the market' people were sceptical from the second it came out
-
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- Novogratz - "ETF before year end"
- JP Morgan - "ETF within a couple of months
- Fink - "Crypto as a flight to safety"
- Grayscale + Blackrock filing amendments
- Gary sheepish re ETF in latest interview
- US session bid back
All within last 48 hours, hmm
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Painfully boring market right now.
But the first 2 weeks of June setting up nicely for some volatility:
June 1: Debt ceiling deadline
June 1: Hong Kong retail trading: $SAND, $AXS, $AVAX
June 5: Apple WWDC 2023 event: $RNDR,
June 13: CPI
June 14: FOMC rate hike decision
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You know that sick, uneasy, stomach turning feeling regarding the market we get sometimes. Feels like we are due a few days of that.
We all know those times usually mark bottoms, but pain first.
Examples:
>Luna collapsing
>FTX collapse
>USDC depeg
Ill never forget those
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Total 3 - Total market cap minus $ETH + $BTC
Weekly close looks super strong. Don't fumble the bag people. Things can even crazier than you imagine, faster than you can imagine.
Caution, no fomo, strong coins - be agile.
Expect deep flushes/corrections.
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The $PEPE Binance listing tweet ended up being some alpha.
PEPE -40% since, following the exact same playbook as $DOGE and $SHIB.
Binance now 3/3 on marking the local top when listing meme coins.
🫡👊🏼
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$BTC
Similar set up to the Sep + Oct grind up
- Channel formed
- Fakeouts either side, but ultimately remaining intact
- Slow grind up, then parabolic move
- If plays out again, 2 targets are liq trap at higher high around $38.8k, then that real move to $42k ish.
- Red line
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Weekly Watchlist 📝 (REMEMBER CPI)
Really not seeing much so far, so small list for now:
- $AVAX: main attraction this weekend, seeing some shilling, some rotations: looks good if stays above $14
- $SOL: people beginning to get worried as it can't break $22, but it is still
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$BTC and FOMC
With FOMC tomorrow, I thought it would be relevant to go back and check how $BTC has reacted on rate hike decision day. Turns out to be a not so bullish event usually, *Short term*
Here is the last 9 FOMC days + Bitcoins price action in the days after:
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Weekly Watchlist 📝 [Things to watch at bottom]
STRONG:
- $RLB currently going through that "FUD" event which I was hoping for to scoop some up, have begun to nibble, averaging down to 0.05 if we get there
- $UNIBOT continues to rip, lesson here is to long the most
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Binance and DOJ:
- Fine of $4.3b
- Binance + CZ to plead guilty
- Entering plea in Seattle Court today
- Deal *may* preserve company's ability to operate
- CZ to step down as CEO
- CZ to retain majority ownership
- CZ not allowed to have executive role
What. A. Day.
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If there was ever a time to bounce:
1. The inevitable CFTC lawsuit against Binance released
2. Capo grave dancing on Binance + "4dding to his shorts"
🤣
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New week = New watchlist 📝
- Perp dexes such as $GMX + $GNS + Bybit's own in house dex $APEX. Reasoning: Bybit KYC implementation is in 1 week.
- Meme coins: $PEPE running again. Reasoning: will watch for profit rotation into "safer" meme coins
- Trending: $AVAX summit
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$ETH / $BTC
Using the ETH/BTC chart for general market direction + alt coin entries is often-time overlooked.
Chart it - usually at support, alt coins tend to out perform and vice versa. Should be checked + charted daily - brilliant tool.
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Good few people I know that have texted me re crypto actually want to dump their positions as they are back to break even as they were top buyers last cycle.
Weird dynamic going on.
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$BTC
I never pay too much attention to these sort of patterns, BUT it looks clear a head and shoulders has formed.
The trade here is not to short the break, it is to short the bearish retest of the neckline (red line), if we get it.
Today's CPI will give us direction🫡
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Weekly Watchlist 📝
- $ARB + ecosystem. Incentives airdropped to eligible projects in the next few days
- $BNB launchpad tokens. New project $EDU on the launchpad = hype
- $CRV + relevant tokens as $crvUSD is expected soon
- $GMX v2 very soon, $OP bedrock upgrade + $PEPE
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$ETH
The only logical place to short ETH is around here if you want to play that swing top deviation + double top from August.
Market is trending beautifully, charts look great, ETH/BTC + dominance look g, inflation is tapering, Shanghai behind us - so do not fight the trend.
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The case for $LTC
TLDR:
If history repeats, $LTC moves up for a solid 6/7 weeks (from now) then puts a in a top (note red dots on chart) a 7/8 weeks before the event.
-The Litecoin Halvening in 15 weeks away
-Red line is 15 weeks before each past halvening
-Blue line is the
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$SOL
Significant breakout - showing real strength.
First major resistance is $26, break and hold there, no reason why it can't head towards $35+.
Just need ETH/BTC and BTC dominance to play ball with us, then this could get fun.
Would be a buyer at $19-$21 if get there.
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For what it's worth regarding the Binance $PEPE listing:
When Binance listed $SHIB and $DOGE, the listing marked the local top for a long while.
I get it, different market conditions etc - I am just solely giving out information.
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Some reflection on the recent market conditions [Bullet pointed]
Main reason for doing so is I dropped the ball a little yesterday, and got ahead of myself - erasing a couple days worth of gains.
- The market is rewarding the holding of positions
- Laddering in + out of
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$BTC
Something I am also watching for is a deep quick flush, to fill in some in-efficient price action, similar to what we have seen twice this year.
[-ve CPI reading could be the catalyst (?)]
Deviate below key level, get everyone shouting it's over, ETF trade priced in,
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$ETH
Just playing level to level right now. ETH needs to hold $1830's+ to look structurally strong.
If we start accepting back below top grey box around/$1820's - would exercise caution with altcoins.
Expecting a substantial enough move this week. Be on the ball 👊🏼
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$BTC
"Bitcoin is holding up so well, we are going higher"
"Bitcoin just cant crack 28.5k, we are going lower"
Really not sure where we go, so have no edge, hence no trade for me.
Do not forget CPI and Shanghai on Wednesday, 2 major events this week 🫡
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Something to remember - Regarding the sha-256 encryption Cobie tweeted.
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Weekly watchlist🧾:
- Litecoin = halving, Litechain, ORC's $LTC
- LSD's = Staking queue bullish for LSDs LIDO v2 $LDO, $FXS, $RPL
- China narrative = in anticipation of June 1st $CFX, $ACH etc
- $SUI = Upbit volume, rumours of airdrop, following the $ARB + $APT playbook
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As far as next week goes, the only real tokens of interest are:
Zk related tokens with ZKevm launch tomorrow + ZkSync hype: $MATIC $MINA $LRC $DUSK
LSD's with some action pre Shanghai upgrade in 2 weeks: $FXS $LDO $ANKR
Add these to watchlist, and play the trends🫡
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$BTC [Greyscale news - now what? Recap at bottom]
Yep, great news and a seriously big win for the space as a whole - sets a real precedent for the industry going forward.
Have a few thoughts and will express them in this tweet, using the chart below as the backbone to my
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$BTC [Market structure]
Decided to just solely looking at the structure of the Bitcoin chart, eliminating all moving averages + indicators.
We set a market low on New Year's Eve, and since then have had pretty clear higher highs and higher lows. You could argue the first
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Knowing I’ve helped at least one person along the way makes it all worth it 🤝
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$SEI
If SEI really is the next big rotation, some things to be aware of:
- Jump and Multicoin are all over this thing, Jump played a part in $INJ move
- Has Upbit pair
- All time highs within reach - price discovery PA underrated
- Founder pushing 'parallelized chains'
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$SOL
Catching my eye here - sort of seeing a rounded bottom forming (note red arrow)
Currently retesting breakout diagonal - more of a longer term trade, but laddering in around green box seems justified.
Simple invalidation also, if we break back into trend.
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$AVAX
Everyone getting bullish on AVAX all of a sudden, but I am still not seeing much, yet.
However, fundamentally it is strong:
-metrics up across the board
-hype into the avax summit on the 3rd - 5th May
-ETH + BTC pairs look decent
Above $22 - then I am interested.
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Our favourite memecoins has meant death to our other bags twice before, third times a charm? 🫠
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$BTC
Bookmark this. Let's re-visit in 1.5 - 2 years.
Cramer, Jason, Vox, Gensler - name a better squad.
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$RNDR
Looks a little blow off toppy on lower time frames.
I closed a little early, but would probably close rest out now if I was still in position.
It is an alt I will look to load up on on dips, that is for sure.
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$BTC
Thats a proper move, last leg there mostly driven by shorts, but bear market PTSD of people shorting every move really has been the fuel.
Something 100% flipped towards the end of last week with big names going on TV speaking about the ETF, a few re-fillings, CME volumes
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$INJ
Am very much of the opinion of not getting chopped up pre ETF, and I am sort of treating the ETF as a "market reset" type of event - so currently pretty flat, but am eyeing some potential trades after ETF,
[1] I feel INJ is pointing towards some upwards continuation,
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CT bros.
Let’s press green in 2hrs 40m together.
US session closed + markets closed Monday.
These trad-fi keks think they run the place now
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$BTC Dominance
Just hit 50%, the highest level in 776 days.
The last time (and only time) BTC dominance reclaimed the 50% level - it surged to 73%.
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$BTC
A reminder to zoom out, and keep it very simple.
>Weekly has been pointing to downside for 5 weeks
>Levels of interest: 28.5k, 25.5k
>Reclaim 30k + hold = heading to range highs at 31.5k
>Break 31.5k + hold = 35k and fast
Bitcoin has been trading super cleanly all year.
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Disgustingly quiet on the timeline for a very convincing breakout.
80k.
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Top gainers
Not sure what to say, we either screwed or early defi summer
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Blackrock file for a spot ETF.
In the space of 2 weeks:
>WisdomTree, Invesco, Bitwise, Valkyrie all file for spot ETF’s
>Now Fidelity are close to
>Deutsche Bank apply for digital license
>HSBC Hong Kong trading of ETF’s
>GBTC discount tightening aggressively
>Powell
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Some tokens I am monitoring very closely this week 📝
$DYDX - not entirely sure whats going on there, ridiculous twap in the last couple of hours + OI up 60%, someone knows something
$RNDT - little narrative building nicely, mainnet October 3rd, Layerzero inching closer,
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$RNDR
If you have been in the trade - take some profits here, massive resistance.
If not in the trade, wait for a break above $2.25's OR a pullback to red box shown box. Chart looks incredible honestly.
If market takes another leg up, I would look for entries on $RNDR.
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If $ARB is going to follow the other recent hyped airdrops, it still has another bit to fall.
This is solely an observation, Arbitrum in fact has held up slightly better compared to $APT , $OP + $BLUR.
Remember:
-Move up off launch
-Slow controlled selling
-Aggressive retrace
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$BTC
Support + 4hr ema200 confluence.
I'm long. Tight stop.
These are the trades I like, decent r/r + if we break here it is most likely over for a while 🫡
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$CFX
Just playing it level to level, like $ARB. Watching for a bounce around the 0.36$ level as we have seen the last 3 times - it is a pivotal area.
Set up laid out below. Let it deviate below that level, and then just wait for the reclaim if it comes.
Good luck 🫡
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$CHZ
Looks interesting.
1. Tapping into 1 year long trendline
2. Chilliz + Socios major marketing + partnership push
3. Champions League final on June 10th, expecting some push from fan tokens + general hype. Happened with world cup, not sure why it can't happen again.
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BREAKING:
Coinbase launches international perpetual futures exchange with up to 5x leverage. Only $BTC + $ETH contract currently available.
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$BNB
Currently poking into the most important level on the chart - it has rejected 4 times here.
IF we begin to show acceptance above 335$ - this could easily start trending towards the 400's pretty fast. Rejection = invalidated.
Watching this closely.
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$BTC
Instinct is telling me a violent Bitcoin move is coming, which way I'm not sure (apologies lol) but have a feeling we tap 25k or 32k. BB's getting super tight.
Gun to my head - 32k more likely ;)
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Short term watchlist:
- Top section for trending coins, hyped + being shilled
- LSD's to see reaction pre + post $ETH Shanghai on Wed
- Asian related tokens with HK Web Summit this week, only the majors, news trades
Best of luck 🫡
$SYN $ARB $JOE $LDO $ANKR $FXS $CFX $ACH
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There is a token which historically follows $MINA.
[redacted] has a lot going for it.
-another zk L1
-ALSO has mainnet launch coming soon
-fits rwa narrative
-considerably lower MC
-chart looks like below
Looks good for medium term hold. Clear invalidation.
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the quicker people stop trying to mid curve, out-smart, overthink this market, the better
just submit and chill
"blackrock etf is not approved"
"its a set up by the gov to exit liq the silk road btc"
"edx was reported 12 months ago"
just press the green button and stfu
Out
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$BTC
Keeping it simple.
-Watching $25.1k for a reaction (red line)
-Will ladder buys at $24.2k
-Will ape at $21.6k if we get there
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$BTC Level to level - simple.
1. Hold here = structurally sound + higher low created
2. Begin to show weakness below 27k, trend towards 25k
3. MUST hold 25k, would fill in that inefficient price action + retest major breakout level.
4. Lose that - we trend to 20k.
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$INJ
Going to give this a go,if it comes, 4hr EMA200 + major support confluence.
Has been down only, was a top performer so expecting some relief.
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$ETH I think will do the “caught everyone off guard” trade.
Soon.
Very soon.
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A thought.
Seeing some chatter around DCG again, remember - they owe Genesis $575m, due in May 2023.
If FUD begins again, especially as we get closer to the time - below is a few tokens within DCG's portfolio, they may:
A. Act as a decent hedge
B. May bleed more than others
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FOMC minutes releases of 2022.
→ It has been a catalyst for future price action multiple times.
→ Usually an initial dump, with price recovery relatively fast.
→ Be careful in leverage - these catalysts create opportunities.
J
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$BTC
Just filled the most recent CME gap at 28k marked at blue circle.
Still 2 major gaps left. And we are RIGHT in the middle.
Which one gets filled first?😅
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