Max Tegmark
@tegmark
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Known as Mad Max for my unorthodox ideas and passion for adventure, my scientific interests range from artificial intelligence to the ultimate nature of reality
MIT
Joined May 2014
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Here's why I think there's now a one-in-six chance of an imminent global
#NuclearWar
, and why I appreciate
@elonmusk
and others urging de-escalation, which is IMHO in the national security interest of all nations:
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Dagan Shani has IMHO made the most important film of the year - about the harsh
#AI
truth:
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Humanity's lackadaisical response to the superintelligence threat makes me feel I'm in the movie "Don't Look Up". I just explained why here:
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Our paper making neural networks more modular, sparse and interpretable by penalizing neuron length is now on arXiv. Less is more!
@ZimingLiu11
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Only about 18% of Americans voted for
#realdonaldtrump
yesterday – the biggest block chose not to vote at all! I just made this infographic:
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We just made the most scientifically complete
#NuclearWar
simulation to date, from fires to famine. As you can see, about 99% die in the US, Europe, Russia & China. Winner: nobody.
How would a nuclear war between Russia and the U.S. affect you? Who would survive?
Watch and share our most realistic nuclear war simulation yet:
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My beloved dad died peacefully this morning, after 92 inspiring orbits around the sun, retaining his dark humor and epic stoicism until the very end. I feel so grateful for all his love, wisdom and encouragement, and for getting to do 53 orbits together. ❤️
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No, LLM's aren't mere stochastic parrots: Llama-2 contains a detailed model of the world, quite literally! We even discover a "longitude neuron".
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Like
@EmmanuelMacron
and
@ElonMusk
, I don't want a world war – and I won't apologize for saying this. If you agree, please write
#idontwantaworldwar
as a reply to this tweet!
What nuclear war looks like from space based on data from peer-reviewed science papers. A Nature Food paper today suggests that over 98% would starve to death in the US, Europe, China & Russia.
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Agreed: an unregulated race to the bottom will end badly for the human race.
Dear everyone who wants to regulate and slow down AI: please stop fighting over who has the Most Correct Reason for the slow down. Just work together and make it happen! Reasons in alphabetical order:
* autonomous weapons
* bias
* biosecurity
* children's safety
(more...)
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In an international climate treaty hopeless? No! 😃 That's how we mended the
#OzoneHole
, thanks to the heroes in this video, so we can succeed again with our future climate!
#FutureOfLifeAward
#Optimism
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It was great fun being back on Lex' podcast and getting to discuss AI risk & hope without having to boil big ideas into tiny soundbites!
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2022 intellectual debate climate in a nutshell:
- "Nuclear war is bad"
- "You're doing Putin's bidding, period!"
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You know that AI is taking off when...Microsoft plans to power data centers with nuclear reactors:
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It's disgraceful that US & EU policymakers prefer getting advice on how to regulate AI from AI company leaders instead of academic experts like Bengio, Hinton & Russell who lack conflicts of interest:
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Let's not just focus on whether
#GPT4
will do more harm or good on the job market, but also on whether its coding skills will hasten the arrival of
#superintelligence
– for which AI safety researchers have so far failed to discover any safety guarantees:
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Please welcome our first class of
@VitalikButerin
Fellows in AI Existential Safety, and consider collaborating with them to ensure that AI become the best rather than worst thing to happen to humanity!
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I'll miss you,
@StephenHawking8
! I've lost a long-time collaborator and, above all, a great inspiration, always reminding me of how seemingly insurmountable challenges can be overcome with creativity, willpower and positive attitude:
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I'm excited that our new paper on machine learning for physics was just published in Physical Review Letters. We show how to auto-discover conservation laws from observed data alone using a cool technique for measuring the dimensionality of a data set.
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When I wrote Life 3.0, I never imagined it wouldn’t be read like this at Burning Man… 🌃
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I feel honored and excited to be back to
@LexFridman
's podcast; he's really deep, and has a unique knack for getting into the most important and exciting questions about tech, life & reality.
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Despite all the hype, artificial intelligence will never outsmart humans - and our seminal new paper rigorously proves it:
#AI
#AGI
#superintelligence
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I'm excited about our method for machine-learning new physics. It auto-discovers e.g. Neptune & gravitational radiation by detecting energy conservation violation even when the physical laws are unknown:
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We just produced this sequel to our Slaughterbots movie, since they're now here for real and the UN is debating whether to
#BanSlaughterbots
. What do *you* prefer?
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Here's why the
@UN
Security Council should agree that AI in nuclear command-and-control is a terrible idea when they discuss the topic tomorrow:
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Let's make
#AI
like biotech, where companies must demonstrate safety, rather than the civilian nuclear industry, where poor safety standards gave us Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima and a backlash that crushed the industry:
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After 9 years, without giving a reason, Facebook just canceled my account with tens of thousands of followers and countless conversations. Are you next?
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Eliezer "don't mince words" Yudkowsky's TED talk on why he expects human extinction by AI. Sadly, I mostly agree with him:
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@SamHarrisOrg
@elonmusk
Sam, are you conflating de-escalation with capitulation? Do you agree that taunting Putin with tweets of Marilyn Monroe singing happy birthday by his burning bridge is goading him to escalate, which isn't in our interest and should be criticized?
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AI accelerationists: Nobody would ever build AI to kill people.
DoD: LOL 🤣
We’re making big bets- and we are going to deliver on those bets. First up: we’re going to field attritable autonomous systems at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months. Together, we can do this.
@NDIAToday
#EmergingTechETI
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I’ve been shocked to discover exactly this over the years through personal conversations. It helps explain why some AI researchers aren’t more bothered by human extinction risk: It’s *not* that they find it unlikely, but that they welcome it!
There are a significant number of people in the AI research community who explicitly think humans should be replaced by AI as the natural next step in evolution, and the sooner the better!
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If you're still not concerned about humanity losing control of recursively self-improving AI, see if
#DeepLearning
Godfather Geoffrey Hinton can persuade you:
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I like you, Yann, and as a colleague I'd like to encourage you to apologize to
@dan_hendricks
for attacking him for his religious upbringing. You really debase yourself by stooping so low as to make lame ad hominem attacks. FYI, I'm not from an ultra-religious family, but as you…
As I have pointed out before, AI doomerism is a kind of apocalyptic cult.
Why would its most vocal advocates come from ultra-religious families (that they broke away from because of science)?
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A Russia-US
#NuclearWar
would be humanity's dumbest act yet & may kill about 99% in the US, Russia and Europe as seen in our simulation:
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We build a lie detector for large language models and show that they represent uncontroversially true and false sentences on opposite sides in a linear space. This is IMHO further evidence they they’re not just overhyped “stochastic parrots”:
Do language models know whether statements are true/false? And if so, what's the best way to "read an LLM's mind"?
In a new paper with
@tegmark
, we explore how LLMs represent truth. 1/N
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A room-temperature superconductor: this is huge if correct – but is it? I can't wait to ask my condensed matter physics colleagues!
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Only 4% of Americans strongly disagree with the proposed pause on AI more powerful than
#GPT4
, so loud pause critics linked to big tech aren't representative. Upton Sinclair said "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not…
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I never in my wildest dreams thought that one of our nerdy AI papers would end up in a meme...
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IMHO,
@SnoopDogg
now captures the magnitude of what's happening in
#AI
better than most tech pundits with their financial conflicts of interest – and most policymakers and corporate lobbyists...
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I’m struck by how out-of-touch many of my tech colleagues are in their rich nerd echo chamber, unaware that most people are against making humans economically obsolete with AI:
This is surreal to watch: SXSW audiences were booing and screaming at pro-AI videos
SXSW is (partially) a tech conference!
They lose their shit when it says “AI makes us more human”
I repeat: in 1-5 years, if we're still alive, I expect the biggest protests humanity has ever…
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The main risk with advanced
#AI
isn't malice, but competence: that it accomplishes goals that aren't aligned with ours. Here are some hilarious and cautionary examples of how this can happen accidentally:
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As we celebrate the start of our new annual orbit around the Sun, it’s fun to remember that our a Sun in turn orbits our Galaxy every 300 million years - we’ve done about 15 Galactic laps so far 🎉🥳
This is scary, like the sun is a kidnapper taking us to a second location
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Yann, I'd love to hear you make arguments rather than acronyms. Thanks to
@RishiSunak
&
@vonderleyen
for realizing that AI xrisk arguments from Turing, Hinton, Bengio, Russell, Altman, Hassabis & Amodei can't be refuted with snark and corporate lobbying alone.
The UK Prime Minister has caught the Existential Fatalistic Risk from AI Delusion disease (EFRAID).
Let's hope he doesn't give it to other heads of state before they get the vaccine.
"An AI safety summit at Bletchley Park in November is expected to focus almost entirely on…
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Claude 2 on the left, Claude 3 on the right:
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"Don't regulate AI – just trust the companies!" Does he also support abolishing the FDA and letting biotech companies sell whatever meds they want without FDA approval, because biotech is too complicated for policymakers to understand?
WATCH: Former Google CEO
@ericschmidt
tells
#MTP
Reports the companies developing AI should be the ones to establish industry guardrails — not policy makers.
“There’s no way a non-industry person can understand what’s possible.”
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Fascinating livestreamed senate hearing on AI going on right now:
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Although the Winograd test for AI is notoriously tougher than the Turing test, just-released GPT4 crushes it:
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Tired of silly terminator stories? My summary of the top 9 myths about advanced future AI:
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Being smarter doesn't necessarily make people more moral
Tonight from the Munk Debate on AI
@MelMitchell1
and I are debating Max
@tegmark
and Yoshua Bengio
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DW just interviewed me about why I think
#AI
will soon pose an existential threat. I really liked the interviewer, who favors depth over soundbites.
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I'e very excited about our AI latest paper, which shows that an architecture radically different from standard neural network achieves much better accuracy with fewer parameters for interesting physics and math problems. arXiv:2402.05110
MLPs are so foundational, but are there alternatives? MLPs place activation functions on neurons, but can we instead place (learnable) activation functions on weights? Yes, we KAN! We propose Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN), which are more accurate and interpretable than MLPs.🧵
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Our new book is out with 25 views on our
#AI
future: from Pinker & Brooks saying "don't worry" to darker and more cynical perspectives:
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I'm excited that my
@TEDTalks
debut has just been posted: "How to get empowered, not overpowered, by AI". I look forward to hearing what you think!
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Machines can never get larger than humans – and we've proved it!
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Huge news: A who's who of AI leaders agree that "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war."
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Differences of opinion, but an IMHO really fun, candid and interesting discussion on AGI risk and hope with
@gdb
,
@elonmusk
&
@netanyahu
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Got data and wonder if there's a formula describing it? Try our new physics-inspired AI Feynman algorithm, published today. It automates what took Kepler 4 years:
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The true AI “doomers” are the e/acc folks who are so misanthropic that they’re fine with AI replacing our entire species. Who here on X prefers AI that complements rather than replaces us?
@benkohlmann
@SecRaimondo
e/acc "founders" (if this term can be used for a meme ideology) openly stated (they've toned it down for PR reasons, not a change of heart) that AI annihilating and replacing all of humanity would be fine, if not outright desirable:
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I just delivereed a letter supporting
#nuclearban
from Hawking, Higgs, 28 Nobels + 3000 other scientists at
#UN
:
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CNN: “It’s time to call Putin’s bluff”
Putin: “I’m not bluffing”
It seems to me that Western media is dangerously biased toward downplaying the nuclear war threat and against deescalation.
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It would have been sooooo shocking to read this just 6 months ago - it’s wild how fast things are changing!
Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority.
And Europe should lead the way, building a new global AI framework built on three pillars: guardrails, governance and guiding innovation ↓
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I hope I'm wrong! Let's ban
#NuclearWar
decision-makers from bringing loved ones to their government-provided bunkers, to give them more skin in the game.
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LOL - it's hilarious that nations can be so confident that their lethal autonomous weapons won't malfunction when they can't even get their videoconferencing to work reliably.
It's jarring watching the UN meeting on
#KillerRobots
this week. They can't get the remote participants' videoconferencing working, while some delegates argue with a straight face that technology will lead to better civilian protection because 'databases and machine learning'.
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The best video I've seen about how
#AGI
can kill democracy. If you're skeptical of existential threat talk, rest assured that this film does *not* focus on it.
Today we’re releasing “The A.I. Dilemma” – a new talk
@aza
and I gave on 3/9, a week before GPT4 launched.
*Pls share it widely.* It's critical for institutions to understand how the race between AI labs is accelerating the likelihood of catastrophe:
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My new TED talk argues that we should (and *can*) keep increasingly powerful AI under human control – if we do our homework and don't get carried away by hubris!
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I’ve only done a small amount of neuroscience research, but enough to appreciate how amazing it is: Nolan is controlling his cursor with thoughts detected by a Bluetooth device in his head.
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After pushing for an international AI safety summit for 9 years, I was really moved to get to be part of it finally happening!
@RishiSunak
had more success than I'd expected, with striking unity between 1) US & China, 2) those focused on current harms vs existential risk & 3)…
LIVE: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s statement from the AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park
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Here's the full version of my AGI risk/hope discussion on AGI risk and hope with
@gdb
@elonmusk
@netanyahu
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77 years ago today, the US nuked Nagasaki; the nuke below is 2500x stronger. I've never before seen so little MSM coverage of this grim anniversary, even though we now IMHO face the greatest risk of nuclear war since 1962. Why the eerie media silence?
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Thanks
#VasiliArkhipov
for ensuring that today isn't the anniversary of
#WorldWar3
! IMHO, this was the single most valuable act in recorded human history.
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Say hello to our new nearest neighbor - a charming Earth-like planet just 4 lightyears away:
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Please stop worrying about
#AI
taking our jobs – it's impossible!
We introduce a system for fine-grained robotic manipulation! 🤖
What’s new?
* We can control cheap robots to do surprisingly dexterous tasks
* New technique that allows robots to learn fine motor skills
A short thread 🧵
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I wish we could clone New Zealand's Prime Minister so that we could vote for her in more countries!
75 years ago the world saw the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons. It must not happen again. Only nuclear zero is worthy of the victims of Hiroshima & Nagasaki. PM Ardern urges all States to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
#nuclearban
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Amazing to discover hundreds of thousands of new materials with AI without even have to use a chemistry lab!
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Extinction by AI is going mainstream: Altman, Hassabis, Amodei, Hinton, Bengio, ...
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Thanks
@ylecun
for the long and thoughtful reply! You're conflating two separate questions:
1) Is superintelligence an xrisk?
2) Is open-sourcing good?
You criticized
@RishiSunak
over 1). I replied, but you still gave no arguments for why it's not an xrisk, just repeated the…
@tegmark
@RishiSunak
@vonderleyen
Altman, Hassabis, and Amodei are the ones doing massive corporate lobbying at the moment.
They are the ones who are attempting to perform a regulatory capture of the AI industry.
You, Geoff, and Yoshua are giving ammunition to those who are lobbying for a ban on open AI R&D.
If…
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In contrast to
#AlphaGo
, the shocking
#AI
news here isn't the ease which with which
#AlphaZero
crushed human *players*, but the ease which which it crushed human *AI researchers*, who'd spent decades hand-crafting ever better chess software:
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We made this
#AI
video explaining the 3 main narratives to help you make up your own mind: (1) it's overhyped, (2) it's a big deal but will be fine, (3) risks are real.
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For those of you who don’t work in AI: Yoshua is widely respected as one of the most brilliant and influential AI researchers, and runs the largest non-corporate AI research center in the world. So worth listening to.
Yoshua Bengio:
'For most of these years, I did not think about the dual-use nature of science because our research results seemed so far from human capabilities and the work was only academic. It was a pure pursuit of knowledge, beautiful, but mostly detached from society until…
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The
#coronavirus
reminds us that we must make humanity more resilient. In an epic new book launched today, Toby Ord's “The Precipice separates science from hype and will remain the definitive work on existential risk for a long time to come.”
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The new US "
#Disinformation
Governance Board" gives me bad vibes: we physicists have fought hard against authorities telling us what's true.
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Yay – our new $20M MIT-lead AI-physics center got funded! We'll tackle two of the greatest mysteries of science: how our universe works and how intelligence works. Our key strategy is to link them, using physics to improve AI and AI to improve physics.
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