Most notable hurricane "face" instances in history. Major hurricane #Erin is now included. We had Hurricane Milton, Maria, Irma & Matthew. ALL MAJOR HURRICANES. #ERIN is now repeating history.

Apologies regarding our previous post. Recon has found a LLC in invest #99L. Much different than our previous post highlighted. The LLC isn't defined & is rather messy. We will see what the 18z and 00z model updates will bring because so far, models are struggling with 99L.

The OSCAT3 Pass over Invest #99L confirms that it has a small center of circulation near 13.5-14.5°N, ~51-52°W. Stronger winds (25-35 kt, with some 40 kt) appear on the north and northeast quadrants. We will see what the NHC does later today.

Invest #99L chances for development jumped to 40/40 due to increasing convection activity. Honestly, it's reminding me of Harvey back in 2017. I'm not saying it's gonna be Harvey, but with both having similar tracks & being underestimated by models, it's deja vu.

Once 99L avoids land interaction, then the chances open for this to intensify. But currently, there's little to no model support on this exact scenario, but at this point, nothing can be ruled out.

As for recent models, they show little to no organization except the Icon model, which pictures a very unique & quite troublesome scenario. If 99L manages to survive the Caribbean "Graveyard" & moves into the Gulf of Honduras or near 15N, 75W, then it may avoid land interaction.

We continue to monitor #99L closely. For some reason, models continue to underestimate the system, and it appears that as of recent satellite data, 99L appears to look fairly organized. It should continue to encounter somewhat favorable conditions over the next 2 days.

#99L is those types of waves that may not seem much of a problem currently, but down the line could become one. Spaghetti plots take 99L well into the western Caribbean. It could become a headache once it taps into the untouched sea surface temperatures of the Caribbean.

If you live in areas, especially coastal communities of North Carolina, South Carolina & Virginia. It's now important now more than ever to start making preparations because #Erin has defied our forecasts more than once and is moving much further southwest than anticipated.

#Erin is really struggling to make that hard northeastern turn. You can see in every forecast that Erin tracks further southwest than anticipated, and as long as Erin continues to struggle with its strength, the more likely it is to shift more towards the US eastcoast.

Tropical Storm Conditions affecting the Turks and Caicos as major #HurricaneErin is making a very close pass. Webcam view of #Erin's impacts.

Are we about to see another sub 900mb storm like Milton did in 2024? #Erin

#Erin looks like a Borderline category 3 hurricane. The pressure is now down to 972mb. If continues we most likely will see a major hurricane in approximately 5-10 hours.

As of 6:18 PM, Hurricane #Erin has opened a small eye. Recon is headed into the storm. We will see what they find. Its safe now to assume that this is the beginning of her rapid intensification phase (RI phase 1) Winds are now up to 85mph #ERIN

If you live in Anguilla, Sint Maarten or Codrington. You guys need to closely watch #Erin because here's the thing, any shift south, even the tiniest shift south will significantly increase impacts. This will be a very close call. Erin will pass about 117 miles north of your area

As mentioned yesterday, dry air is intruding in #Erin and robbing the storms moisture, exposing the LLC. Its just a matter of time before it moves into a highly conducive environment and with that very defined LLC any new convection that fires could easily trigger massive growth.

This is something you'll probably never see again. First time I've ever seen the Icon model show a system to get this strong. #Erin will become a monster. The track remains uncertain.

Notably, the 00z spaghetti plots took a big dip southwest, which of course means more effects on the Caribbean islands and possibly becoming a US East Coast threat later this week. Things can and will change, but it's not particularly the best situation how #Erin is evolving.

On the other hand, this is not 100% guaranteed, but just be prepared because it's virtually impossible for you to prepare for a major hurricane when it's on your doorstep. Also, those in Puerto Rico monitor Tropical storm #Erin as it could pass very close by.

I fear Bermuda may be impacted by a major hurricane by the end of this week. If you live in Bermuda, start revising your hurricane plans. A landfalling major hurricane is becoming increasingly likely from Tropical Storm #Erin that is forecasted to become a category 3+ hurricane.