Steven Yin
@stevenydc
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macrodata refiner @openai prev: HFT @weHRTyou blog: https://t.co/aLvLWaCzog
Joined September 2010
What if the futures market could tell us exactly when AGI will arrive? Not NVDA stock. Not Twitter takes. An actual market that prices AI progress in real-time. This market should and can exist, here's how.🧵.
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There are regulations, and there are etiquettes. This exists in sports, finance, AI research job hunting. These things are technically not in the rules, but if you break them people are going to be mad at you. The alpha is in knowing when to break them. (not financial advice).
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ai lab's quant trading twins
Meta is giving classic CitSec vibe these days. Zuck is the new KennyG.
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Meta is giving classic CitSec vibe these days. Zuck is the new KennyG.
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We needed internet scale data for pre-training, now we need planetary scale environments for RL.
Why you should stop working on RL research and instead work on product //.The technology that unlocked the big scaling shift in AI is the internet, not transformers. I think it's well known that data is the most important thing in AI, and also that researchers choose not to work
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RT @AmandaAskell: There are times when it feels like we've been doing thousands of years of philosophy just to prepare for the current mome….
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Humans started with an intuitive understanding of "water": feels wet, becomes solid when cold, tastes like nothing etc. But eventually we formalized "water" with H2O. We all have an intuitive feel for "intelligence", one day we are going to formalize it into . ?.
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Full post dives deep into how compute and intelligence futures markets would transform AI from speculation to calculation:
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Even better: intelligence futures. Contracts for "1 billion GPT-5 tokens in 2026." The day these hit $10k/million tokens is the day AGI has found product-market fit: we would all happily pay if they are able to solve some truly economically valuable tasks.
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Labs making breakthroughs → buying every contract → prices moon Progress stalling → dumping excess capacity → prices crash Want to know if AGI is near? Check the compute futures curve. The market would know before anyone else.
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Imagine compute futures: "100 million H100-hours deliverable March 2026" Suddenly AI labs can hedge costs. Plan infrastructure. Lock in supply. But here's where it gets more exciting: these futures prices would be a real-time prediction market for AI progress.
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AI companies are the new utilities. Compute goes in → intelligence comes out → distribute through APIs. But unlike power companies who can stockpile coal, and hedge natural gas futures, OpenAI can't stockpile compute. Every idle GPU second = money burned. Use it or lose it.
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Race to the bottom in AI pricing is a sign of no product market fit: if we have found truly economically valuable tasks for AI to do we would all happily pay $10,000/million-tokens. People obviously wouldn't want to pay if all they are doing is solving AIME puzzles.
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highflyer obviously got something right with deepseek
Stanford Math PhD’s AI Startup Targets $300 Million Valuation. While some AI models struggle with basic math, Axiom intends to specialize in advanced mathematical problem-solving for financial applications. Learn how: #fintech.
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Replace one plank at a time from a ship until none remain. Is it the same ship?. Now rebuild it with the same planks in a new place. Which is the “real” one?.
very excited to be working with @shengjia_zhao, @jhyuxm, @ren_hongyu, and @shuchaobi 😊. towards superintelligence 🚀.
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AI Safety feels like Quality Control: a useful concept in the short term, but probably obsolete in a few years. When it comes to AI risks, EVERYONE is a risk manager.
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RT @wehrtyou: 2/ HRT Algo Developer @stevenydc presented two posters focused on designing and analyzing algorithms for resource allocation….
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RT @stonecoldpat0: The next talk is by Steven Yin. To EVM or not to EVM? . The question is really: should a new firm deploy their code to….
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RT @BlockchainatCU: Our uniswap protocol lead, @jason_of_cs took a deep dive into the technicals of some of the best cross-chain providers….
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