Charlemagne columnist & Brussels bureau chief, The Economist.
Past stints in Paris, Mumbai, London. Français. Personal feed. Bio 👇.
Charlemagne
@economist
.com
Two countries with a McDonalds now in open warfare. In 1996 Thomas Friedman had posited it shouldn't happen: if a place was rich enough to have Big Macs, its people had too much to lose from war. It was archetypal of a time when we thought the End of History was in sight.
Marine Le Pen's party is binning its 8-page electoral tract, which features a picture of her shaking hands with Vladimir Putin. Apparently that's not a vote-winner any more! 1.2 million copies had been printed.
Macron's line about not humiliating Russia drives Eastern Europeans crazy. As one official from the region put it to me: "If France thinks Putin needs to save his face, it can always send him more Botox".
Deliciously catty, I thought.
At the rate Germany is overhauling this week, Berlin will adopt baseball at its national sport by Wednesday, just before moving Oktoberfest to October.
If you vaccinate 100,000 people over the age of 50 today rather than tomorrow, you save 15 lives, according to a French analysis.
Germany has 1.7m AstraZeneca doses that are now not being administered.
Delay all of those by a week, you're up 1785 deaths.
French diplomatic staffing 2022 is a foreigner's pronounciation nightmare--
Incoming EU minister: Laurence BOONE
Outgoing EU minister: Clément BEAUNE
Continuing diplo adviser: Emmanuel BONNE
You would laugh quite hard a decade ago if someone told you the European Commission by 2023 would rate Greek and Spanish public finances above those of Germany or the Netherlands. (Per
@business
)
First names of the last four finance ministers—
France: Bruno, Michel, Pierre, François
Germany: Christian, Olaf, Peter, Wolfgang
Italy: Daniele, Roberto, Giovanni, Pier Carlo
Britain: Kwasi, Nadhim, Rishi, Sajid
If I was 50 years old in Italy, I'd start wondering who will pay my state-funded pension.
You need either economic growth, acceptance of high migration or healthy demographics. Italy has none of the three.
What will give?
41% of French population is in favour of a proposal to limit everyone to 4 flights in their entire life.
59% of 18-24 year-olds agree.
2 return flights. Not per year: per life.
Spotify in India will cost $1.39 per month (99 rupees), vs $9.99 in US. This acknowledges a basic reality that many others (Netflix, Ikea, Starbucks etc) are in denial about: if you apply US-level pricing in India, you are pitching to a total potential audience of fewer than 50m.
The first time Angela Merkel featured on The Economist's cover, the inside pages featured an ad for the Nokia N70, a cutting-edge phone that even had a camera and colour screen
France proudly evacuating citizens from 41 countries
Britain only evacuating British citizens.
What happened to Britain? Genuinely. What the hell happened?
Holidays in France are so long that my Parisian building runs summer camps for house plants: leave them in the courtyard to get watered until you return in September.
Germany's decision to close nuclear plants still strikes me as one of the weirdest calls made by a politician in recent times. It manages to undermine both the push for less carbon and weaning Germany off Russian gas. For essentially no benefit.
European financial regulators are fuming at "incompetent" US counterparts over SVB. For 15 years they attended "long and boring meetings" where everyone promised to do exactly the opposite of what the US just did when crisis struck.
The damage wrought to India's credibility by having crazed polemcists at the heart of its establishment these days is hard to overstate. Here, a board member of India's central bank retweets a former foreign secretary saying, entirely wrongly, "WSJ is owned by Soros".
Ooof. Watch Germany's diplomats at the UN sniggering in clever disbelief as Donald Trump (correctly) points out the risks of depending on Russian energy imports. Just three years ago. The whole thing was dismissed as "outrageous" by Trump-bashers.
THE STORY OF EUROPE'S CORPORATE DECLINE
20 years ago, 41 of the world's 100 most valuable companies were in Europe. Now the figure is down to 15.
What on earth happened?
We take a look at this in this week's
@TheEconomist
cover package.
A 🧵
What most East EU countries want:
- hard line on Russia
- quick enlargement to Ukraine+, no second-tier status
- no treaty change
- not too much Franco-German EU
What Macron said Monday:
- don't humiliate Russia
- No enlargement, multi-tier EU
- change treaties
- went to Berlin
Switzerland has vetoed an Italian request to export 96 Swiss-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
"Neutrality" might have had an enlightened feel before the war, but now looks hopelessly naive–as I argued earlier this year.
Who would have imagined a politician who during a time of war in Europe could not say for sure if the president of France was "friend or foe" would turn out to be a crap PM. A complete mystery.
French government has decided to stop refunding homeopathic treatment.
It would have sent a stronger signal to refund €0.0000000000001 per tab, and explain to the homeopaths how powerful that was.
France obsessing with this idea of Macron legitimacy (see below).
Other countries just… don't do this.
Biden got 33.96% of the vote against vs 33.8% abstentions. Literally never mentioned. He was also massively backed by people who didn't vote for him in primaries
(^
@labboudles
)
The boss of Citi investment bank makes an obvious but thus-far overlooked point. Working from home works fine now because we've built up lots of social capital. We knew our colleagues before. That erodes over time.
France wants to defranchise political Islam. If it succeeds it will be a model for the world to separate religious Islam from the political one. The billion $ question is, Is that possible? France gives ultimatum to French Council of Muslim Faith
INDIA CHART AND DATA EXTRAVAGANZA THREAD. I collated tons of data from various sources for my India's Missing Middle Class package (links below). Not all of it was referred to or useful, some is contradictory. Here are 34 good ones.
A new "unofficial" list of Gilet Jaunes demands here:
- cut taxes to 25% of GDP (so half current levels)
- better public services/massive hiring of civil servants
- Leave EU & NATO
- Default on public debt
- New constitution
- less immigration
- Scrap CFA Franc in W Africa (??)
What has happened to Britain?
Sunak cancels a meeting with Mitsotakis because the Greek PM repeated age-old demands over the Elgin marbles while in London.
In the midst of war on the continent and a crisis in the Middle East, this is what Sunak focuses on??
The FT is making a splash with what seems to be a remarkable stat: EU GDP used to be 91% of US in 2013, and is now 65%.
But this is for the same reason EU GDP went from 70% America's in 2001 to 110% in 2008 - because exchange rates moved around
Non-story then, non-story now
@Pandurevich
No, that's wrong. The poll is explicitly on the question of limiting flights to 4 per person for life. This is in the original French (which I speak), and it says precisely what I claimed it said.
Please don't make claims about people acting in "immoral" ways without checking
The nuclear arc of history is nuts. We develop and use it safely for half a century for all our power needs bar transport. Then we finally have the opportunity to replace hydrocarbons for cars in favour of electricity. And instead of ramping up nuclear we say nah.
I congratulate the entire team of Larsen & Toubro for building the state-of-the-art K-9 Vajra Self Propelled Howitzer.
This is a significant contribution towards India’s defence sector and protecting the country.
France votes today.
A lot of the focus has been on Le Pen. We've had weeks of "What if she wins?" or "Even if she loses, she's changing France!"
But the candidate who matters is the one who wins.
That's going to be Macron. And his re-election matters more than his 2017 win.🧵
France has decided AstraZeneca is safe but no jabs this morning because the regulator has to update the guidance. So we start again this afternoon, once the paperwork is filed.
It's like they live in a different, pandemic-free, universe.
One of the main reasons vaccination rates are so low in Europe is down to supply. And one of the reasons supply is low is because EU ordered doses late. Why? It seems the issue of liability is important. A thread on how to think about the main issues at play. 🧵
Former French PM, now paid by Russian firms, blames "the West's refusal to take into account Russia's demands about the expansion of NATO. This attitude has driven to a dangerous confrontation today that could have been avoided".
Speaks for itself, really.
I cannot overstate how much the Russian gas play has backfired this winter.
Record warmth is currently entrenched across Europe (+10-20C above average), with the pattern looking like it's going to hold through the next week.
Advisory for
#CoronaVirus
Homoeopathy for Prevention of Corona virus Infections
Unani Medicines useful in the symptomatic management of Corona Virus infection
Details here:
Indian govt wants to ban journalists who spread "fake news". 13 ministers tweeted links to a website that purports to expose such "fake news". The site in fact attacks genuine reporting as "fake" and has clear links to firms that advise Modi.
Goldman was once offered 50% of Alibaba for $5m. It went for a $3m investment instead. Sold out for $22m after 5 years.
That stake would be worth c$200bn now. Roughly 70% compound annual return for over 20 years. Goldman is worth $110bn.
(from previous retweet of
@TonyTassell
)
A grating Americanism that has crept into coverage of France is the idea of Le Pen "conceding" to Macron.
In a properly run system, it isn't the vanquished candidate that gets to decide who wins - there is nothing to concede. The winner is decided by those who count the votes
Once again today I have used the phrase "I will do the needful" in an email, completely unironically, in pursuit of my lifetime goal of giving this Indian phrase the global prominence it deserves.
Fascinating. In-person tech conference tested participants before and *every day*, still got 43% covid-infected. None of the 49 participants wore masks.
The support staff who had to wear masks: no infections.
“False sense of security”—high tech gathering of 49 tech thinkers was held in 4 day “bubble” without mask mandate after arrival+daily testing. Result? ~43% (21 of 49) of tech attendees got
#COVID19
soon after, including organizer
@PeterDiamandis
. 0% of masked support staff. 🧵
UK govt has written to thousands of Germans living in Britain to ask them to "consider returning" to driving trucks.
Most of them never had, but were in some database of potential truckers because old German driving licenses could be used for vans.
There are 3000 Swedish-speaking Afghans in France, most of them young men. Why? Many settled in Sweden in 2015, learning the language as they sought to integrate. Then Sweden tried to send them back, arguing it was safe. Desperate, many became refugees again & landed in France
You can be pretty sure if Le Pen makes the second round against Macron that he will have a pile of these Putin-Le Pen manifestoes on his desk during the presidential debate. Might even bring a framed copy to give to her. As a keepsake.
A very important rule of journalism is not to write an article with the aim of impressing the 10 subject-matter experts you just spoke to, but for everyone else who knows nothing about it. This is actually harder to do than one would think.
🇩🇪🗳 Leader of far right AfD: youth should “learn more German folk songs, more German poems” in school.
Kid reporter: “I think we already have to memorize plenty of poems in school. What’s your favorite German poem?”
AfD leader: “I can’t think of one.”
BJP have roughly 2% more votes than Congress, but 65% more seats. Such is the brutality of first-past-the-post. It suggests the BJP is either lucky or, more likely, has a vastly better electioneering machine which understands how to allocate campaign resources efficiently.
This week in
@TheEconomist
, we take a look at the Indian middle class. Far from being the world's next major economic force, it is notable for how small it is—and how slowly it is growing. Businesses looking to India as the next China are likely to be disappointed. Links 👇
Oh dear. European Commission publishes a redacted version of its vaccines contract with AstraZeneca, but you can read many of the redacted bits in the Bookmarks tab. Good spot
@GazTheJourno
.
Over 40% of the world lived in extreme poverty 40 years ago.
The figure was down to 10% in 2015, and falling.
But ok, globalisation in the last 40 years has "failed".
Poland is vetoing an €18bn aid package to Ukraine that all 26 other EU member states have agreed, and which Zelensky urgently needs.
I look forward to Polish ministers lecturing the rest of Europe about not doing enough to help Ukraine.
Korean music fans are doing American protestors a favour by tagging all their posts
#whitelivesmatter
to drown out the racist drivel.
K-Pop soft power: what a century we live in!
Here's the Budget team of CBDT with Hon'ble Union Finance Minister Sh. Arun Jaitley alongwith MOS(Finance) Sh. SP Shukla & MOS(Finance & Shipping) Sh. Pon Radhakrishnan & Finance Secretary Dr. Hansmukh Adhia at North Block, New Delhi on the eve of Budget.
The US Park Police says its officers did *not* deploy tear gas at Lafayette Park, but acknowledges using "smoke canisters and pepper balls," that contain a chemical designed to irritate the eyes.
France is to reopen shops & outdoor dining on 19 May.
On the day UK did the same (12 April), it had around 30 daily covid deaths.
France is hovering at more like 300/day.
Either authorities are expecting a rapid improvement, or the pace of reopening is too quick
A bit out of fashion praising British politics just now, especially the Conservatives. But do consider that the upcoming race to lead the party/country will pit, among others: Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Nadhim Zahavi and Sajid Javid. You don't see that outside UK
Indian man, while in a Mumbai Uber, chats on the phone about protests against a government migration bill
Uber driver takes him straight to police station
Police interrogate the passenger
Uber driver gets an award from Modi-party politician
.
@BJP4India
MLA Mangal Prabhat Lodha felicitated a cab driver who took a passenger to police station after overhearing a phone chat about the anti-CAA protests.
Th MLA conferred “Alert Citizenship Award” on cab driver Rohit Gaur.
Just a note to creative types: Never EVER throw contracts out. Keep them and make them findable. In the last 2 years I've been saved twice by having found copies of contracts (from 91 & 97) that Other Parties had lost. Lawyers stopped obfuscating/prevaricating and came into line.
It's crazy how often I have to explain to sources what "off the record" means. To be clear: it does NOT mean I can't use the information. It means I cannot attribute it to you. Very simple PR tip: DO. NOT. TELL. JOURNALISTS. STUFF. YOU DON'T. WANT. THEM. TO. KNOW.
This is a very, very ugly piece of campaigning in India. "Under whose advice" did Manmohan Singh refuse to bomb Pakistan in 2008, Modi asks? Not much short of an accusation of outright treason against a former PM.