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@sonylbb
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@Eliass22A Merci, j'en pense que le marchĂŠ est très stupide, une fois de plus. Ca aurait une OPA a 23âŹ, on serait a 22âŹ. LĂ c'est une OPA Ă 23⏠sur une des deux filiales, du coup on est Ă 16âŹ, c'est totalement illogique. Mais oui on paye le prix du manque de visibilitĂŠ sur la suite.
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7ď¸âŁ Surround yourself with and follow people who are better than you; you will progress infinitely faster. But go about it gradually: A level n+4 compared to you wonât help you progress much. Follow and exchange with people at a level n+1 or n+2, and climb the ladders step by step
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6ď¸âŁ Every stock reacts differently to market stress, take advantage of it. Sometimes the underlying business isn't even volatile/fragile. -> Adyen
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5ď¸âŁ The market takes time to price in good or bad news. Take your time when selling, especially when all the good news has not yet been fully reflected in the price. -> Tecnicas Reunidas or on the contrary be quick.
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4ď¸âŁ Exit either first or last. Ideally never in the middle, because you will often be the last one out, when it is already obvious you should sell -> Pluxee, Evolution AB Your agility is an advantage.
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2ď¸âŁ Sharing your ideas is a doubleâedged sword: if you do not have strong enough convictions, most people will tell you your stock pick is terrible or too complex, especially if it underperforms -> BKHT 3ď¸âŁAnd you may have a very hard time justifying a mediocre business -> LDLC
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Some lessons from 2025 : 1ď¸âŁA good investment idea must be simple. These are the best. Theon: cheap + strong tailwind from defense; Clinica Baviera: cheap + proven technology + an everâgrowing need for vision correction
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3) It is socially easier to talk about a popular stock that has already risen a lot, once it has risen, rather than talking about a controversial or disliked stock. Bulls who spoke about Intellego with a lot of DD have all my curiosity despite the outcome
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Even assuming a 100% margin on everything else, the maximum EBIT would have been 340M SEKâŚ
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A CEO who pumps his own stock isnât great, but when he lies while doing it, thatâs a dealbreaker. How did they manage to reach 400M EBIT by September 12th knowing they had not yet received the MoveoMed order? They recorded 479M for 9M EBIT and 171M for the Q.
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without credible arguments. As time passed, the mind becomes increasingly fatigued and no longer becomes reactive when it sees a real red flag. Fun fact: The red flag that should have made me exit before the report never appeared on social networks.
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Putting 1% of the portfolio on Intellego wouldnât have destabilized anything, but it would have been enough to create a lot of value. 2) Anchoring bias: Most of the short theses were debunkable one after another. Many X accounts repeated their short thesis over and over again
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Here are a few lessons Iâm taking away from Intellego. The fact that Intellego was shaky, with flaws, was known and thatâs what explained the valuation. 1) Sizing is THE factor that protects you from a significant capital loss.
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@RelaDep @arny_trezzi @FromValue Yes more competition, but it would have been lucrative if someone still could have cracked each $5mn market prior and they couldn't bc the issue is you can't wedge customers from their existing solutions. AI lowers cost to produce software but that doesn't offer any incremental
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Many things are still far from perfect, but isnât it normal for a young, fast-growing company not to be perfect ? Only time will tell us who was right
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Most of the bear arguments make no sense, stem from a misunderstanding of the company, or assume the company is already fairly valued. The companyâs valuation is only emerging from the graveyard because there were real issues. We shouldnât forget that, and we need to give it time
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A lot of noise here. Big money or big loss? I bet on the first one. If I'm wrong I could do x0, but what if I'm right ? x5, x10? $int.st $int
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