@andrewrsorkin
Alternate view: the "public" (meaning, non-institutional investors) has long believed that the stock market is "manipulated and not trusted" and they now have the tools and access to be able to level the playing field in competing with institutional investors.
Very excited to announce that my book, Secrets of Sand Hill Road, comes out next month. I've tried to de-mystify the VC business with the hope that it encourages more people to participate in the entrepreneurial ecosystem.
Great thread - VC is indeed tiny (about 0.5% of US GDP), but VC-backed companies punch well above this weight: about 1/3 of total employment; nearly 2/3 of US market capitalization and about 85% of total R&D spend.
I never made Midas List or 40 under 40 (when I was in fact eligible for that age bracket), but apparently have finally made it to the "Tech Investor Boycott List for Palestine" - I am honored to be in such good company; cc
@rabois
,
@mattocko
,
@JTLonsdale
,
@mikeeisenberg
,
@joshk
,…
Amazon shuts down Spark, its Instagram rival launched in 2017; URL directs to
#FoundItOnAmazon
, its product discovery site similar to its Interesting Finds tool (
@sarahintampa
/ TechCrunch)
This is a great read about the (40+ year) "overnight" success of an investment management startup. We are easily fooled by the post-hoc narrative fallacy, but businesses don't just go up and to the right from day one.
BREAKING: 🇨🇦 Canada creates a path to permanent residency for all H-1B visa holders in the United States.
Canada is eating our lunch. This is bad news for America. We need to expand high-skilled immigration or our economy will suffer.
Interesting example of misleading stats. Story says that bad diet kills more people than smoking (which is true), but doesn't tell readers until the end why this is obvious - everyone eats, but many fewer people smoke.
In case helpful for a broader audience, a number of VCs were on a call tonight with the new SVB CEO. Here are a few data points they shared with the group:
If you've ever wondered how to pick a VC, structure a deal or work with a VC post-investment,
@withfries2
and I lay it all out here in a 3-video series. It's snackable content perfect for a quiet Father's Day weekend!
An oldie but a goodie - Paul Krugman in 1998: "By 2005 or so it will be clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."
This will make a great case study for all of the
@Wharton
MBAs on how not to do crisis comms - follow-up a disastrous day of Congressional testimony by reading from a teleprompter and displaying a complete lack of empathy and authenticity.
If you are interested in reading more on this topic and on how venture capital works from top to bottom, check out my soon-to-be-released book: Secrets of Sand Hill Road
The silence from the business and journalist communities re the govt's ability to literally shut down a company overnight is deafening. Tik Tok will be the first salvo in a prolonged attack on commerce and not just in the US - every country will cite it to justify future actions.
Wasn't that entirely predictable? The only companies who can afford the regulatory cost burden are the largest, most profitable. Same think with Dodd Frank - it was the best thing the large banks could have asked for in terms of reducing competition from smaller financial firms.
“Since the GDPR’s implementation in May, the rank and market share of small- and medium-sized ad tech companies has declined by 18 to 32 percent in the EU, while these measures have increased for Google, Facebook, and Amazon”
When billionaires who made all of their money off on the unregulated internet (and SPACs) somehow decide they are now pro-regulation ("for the good of society") when it comes to AI ...
“The worst thing you can do is give up, because there’s probably a move. You just have to find it. I’m definitely from the Jay-Z school. Forward is the only direction. Can’t be afraid to fail in search of perfection."
Winning investment strategy? When a prominent venture firm (particularly one named after a tree) publicly pronounces that the world is coming to an end, go long :)
Silicon Valley has been doing SPACs forever. We just call them SPVs. A SPAC is just a special "SPV" that trades publicly and acquires an existing business (vs just investing in one).
If you are just now claiming to learn that many of America's institutions of higher learning support anti-Semitic student groups (and, at a minimum, would never condemn their views), you've either been living under a rock or have never stepped foot on a college campus in years.
Well said from
@fredwilson
- tech companies enjoy premium valuations b/c they have long-term competitive moats, high unit margins and Ieverage at scale, driving high cash flow at maturity. Absent those characteristics, tech multiples are less applicable.
This is a really good read - 0 alpha generation from CEOs with MBAs, 0 difference between elite and non-elite programs, 0 persistence in returns for repeat CEOs
Once you internalize that the CA budget is tethered to NASDAQ performance, you can start to understand why the general anti-tech sentiment of the CA government will eventually bankrupt the state.
@pmarca
You had me until the last exchange when the Entrepreneur says to the Journalist that she "respect(s) your [the Journalist's] opinion." That's the dead giveaway that the AI still needs more work :)
Lots of reasons why it's so hard for incumbents to innovate, but this highlights a big one: it often requires turning over your shareholder base from dividend/earnings focus to growth/investment focus.
Don Valentine describes his meeting with Solomon Brothers while raising the $5M Sequoia I fund. It didn't go well. -- Just one fav excerpt from this 75-page interview with him.
This is unbelievable - Hertz is going to sell new equity to the public in the middle of a bankruptcy process, even though that equity sits junior to the DIP and on par with all other existing equity holders. via
@WSJ
Tech narrative for last ten years: Companies are staying private too long + private valuations are too high --> We must be in a bubble
Tech narrative today: Wow, so many tech companies are going public --> We must be in a bubble
Interesting story debunking the myth of the young founder. The study is behind a paywall, but it apparently uses "fastest growth in employment and sales" as the success metric. Seems as though absolute revenue scale or market cap would be better metrics?
UPenn President: “The engagement of Jewish faculty, students, staff and alumni has been an important part of the success of Penn as a leading University. To see their sense of belonging shaken by hurt and fear – that is intolerable to me. It is also galvanizing.”
Translation:…
From
@matt_levine
: "Venture capitalists are not happy when mutual funds get underpriced stock: It dilutes existing shareholders and 'leaves money on the table.' [VC's] are of course perfectly happy when venture capitalists get underpriced stock; that’s the business they are in."
According to the House, big tech has reduced entrepreneurship and VC activity. The data show otherwise: from '06-'19, total # of VC deals/$ up 4x to 12,211 deals/$135.8b, early-stage deals/$ up 3x to 4,157 deals/$46.3b, angel/seed deals/$ up 10x to 5,107 deals/$10b; cc
@PitchBook
House lawmakers ... said Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google had exercised and abused their monopoly power and called for the most sweeping set of changes to antitrust laws in half a century.
Probably not too much of an over-statement to say that we all owe a debt of gratitude to the often-maligned gamers for (almost) singlehandedly subsidizing
@nvidia
to get us to the current AI revolution?
Harvard Law Prof Lawrence Lessig: "Defending a criminal defendant is not to defend a crime. That understanding is fundamental to a just criminal justice system.”
Good to see more states realizing that Noncompete Agreements are bad for employees and bad for economic growth generally. One of the big reasons why CA tech industry successfully outgrew MA.
Vaccine quote of the day - Sen. Kennedy (R-LA), reported by
@politico
: “I hear a lot of ‘I’m not gonna take it, because I don’t know what’s in it.’ And you know what I tell them? Do you eat hot dogs? You don’t know what’s in hot dogs, but you eat them. Take the vaccine.”
According to Warren, any company with $40b+ in revenue is prohibited from making acquisitions and any 2 companies each with $15b in revenue cannot merge; oh, and her bill would make this retrospective too.
Asking for a "friend," does anyone know if on a Zoom call whether the host can tell if you've navigated to another window - i.e., multi-tasking? I've heard of teachers threatening students with this capability.
A huge thank you to everyone who has supported the launch of Secrets of Sand Hill Road - because of you, we made the
@WSJ
Best Seller's List! If you haven't had a chance to read yet, don't worry as you still have time :)
I love
@danprimack
(other than his poor choice of sports franchises to support) and think he's got some important points here, but wanted to add some commentary:
Any bets on how long until the SEC closes the regulatory arbitrage rules between traditional IPO quiet periods and the wild west of SPAC sponsors priming the market by promoting their deals on
@CNBC
?
@Jason
@jaredkushner
@lexfridman
I don't know why you question
@jaredkushner
's credibility on its face vs allowing his actions on the Middle East to speak for themselves. You can both not be a fan of Trump's and acknowledge the success
@jaredkushner
had in furthering the prospects for peace in the region.
Alternative headline: George Soros' fund is offloading Palantir shares b/c it made a ton of money and was able to keep its "disapproval" of Palantir secret until it had to publicly disclose its ownership in an SEC filing.
Nice to see
@pagerduty
CEO Jen Tejada being recognized for her leadership. I believe she is the first female CEO to take an enterprise company public since Diane Greene? Full Disclosure:
@a16z
is an investor in the company. via
@FT
This is a must read for any crypto-phile (or phobe) - very helpful and constructive legal framework from the
@SEC_News
.
More background reading here too -
The current SEC has been highly focused on the decline in the number of IPOs (particularly, small cap IPOs) and the 50% decline in the number of publicly listed stocks. I had the chance to share some of the background and potential solutions to address:
The future is here (or at least a roadmap for what the future may entail!). For anyone interested in making heads or tails about technology, innovation, the startup ecosystem, check out
Fascinating research on the '19-20 SPAC class: 73% of IPO investors redeem their shares before the de-SPAC (merger) and 98% of the non-redeemers sell post-merger.
In defense of resistance training: "In other words, the larger your muscles, the greater your body’s capacity for glucose uptake...Increased muscle mass 'drives down the blood sugar circulating through your body'.”
What if a silver lining of COVID is that geographic constraints around entrepreneurship, job creation and economic development are relaxed or eliminated altogether?
The post-COVID period gives us a chance to reverse the trend of income inequality by spreading economic development outside of "supercities," says
@skupor
— and to do that we should apply the lessons of what built Silicon Valley.
Tech is eating the world: Relentless rally in US tech shares has reached fresh milestone – they’re now more valuable than the entire European stock market for 1st time on record. That’s a major shift from back in 2007 when Europe was four times the size of US tech, BBG reports.
Somehow the government is fine sponsoring lotteries that entrap poor people into spending their hard-earned money, bit is worried about expanding access to retail public market investing.
This narrative that Silicon Valley "culture" is on trial along with Theranos is silly. (Alleged) fraud is not the same as willful suspension of disbelief when you have full access to the data and teams required to perform diligence.
The financial world lost a true pioneer and leader last night. Of course David left his mark as a renowned asset manager, but more significantly he was a teacher, mentor and partner to nearly everyone he encountered. via
@WSJ
I've been blessed with so many things - a loving family, an exciting job, great friends, good health, etc. Yet, somehow, I have always felt as though something was missing in my life ... but now, suddenly, my world is truly complete!!!!
Beware when investors rejoice at "faux founders going away" and take credit for doing "the clean-up work in Silicon Valley."
Rather, we should all thank our lucky stars for having the privilege of funding brave, amazing entrepreneurs who wake up every day trying to do the…
“What we’re seeing right now is the collapse of a lot of the young venture capital firms,” says
@Jason
. "With venture tourism going away... we're starting to see finally... the burn-off of the excess. The excess calories. The fat in the system and it was pronounced."