Conservative EBITDA: FY26 ₹226cr → FY27 ₹313cr → FY28 ₹510cr. At EV/EBITDA 20–30×, fair Mcap = ₹10k–15k cr vs current ₹3,744cr-2.5× to 4× upside. #Artemis #Artemismedicare #hospital

Artemis is entering a 3yr capacity-led rerating cycle: beds 544->1,350 by FY28, Raipur ramps in 24–30 months, Gurgaon hits 1,000 beds, ARPOB/margins rising.

One-line takeaway Even on conservative EBITDA and realistic multiples, Artemis shows clear rerating potential: FY26 →FY27 →FY28 = ₹4.3k → ₹6.0k → ₹10.0k Cr (20× multiple) Peak optionality lies in FY28, when both Gurgaon (1,000 beds) and Raipur (350 beds) fully contribute

Upside vs Current Mcap (₹3,744 Cr) FY26: • +16% → +76% → +76% (20×/25×/30×) FY27: • +62% → +104% → +146% FY28: • +168% → +236% → +304%

FY28 Valuation EBITDA = ₹510 Cr • EV @20× = ₹10,200 Cr • EV @25× = ₹12,750 Cr • EV @30× = ₹15,300 Cr → Mcap: • ₹10,020 Cr @20× • ₹12,570 Cr @25× • ₹15,120 Cr @30×

FY27 Valuation EBITDA = ₹313 Cr • EV @20× = ₹6,260 Cr • EV @25× = ₹7,825 Cr • EV @30× = ₹9,390 Cr → Mcap: • ₹6,080 Cr @20× • ₹7,645 Cr @25× • ₹9,210 Cr @30×

FY26 Valuation EBITDA = ₹226 Cr • EV @20× = ₹4,520 Cr • EV @25× = ₹5,650 Cr • EV @30× = ₹6,780 Cr → Mcap = EV – ₹180 Cr • ₹4,340 Cr @20× • ₹5,470 Cr @25× • ₹6,600 Cr @30×

Here are the conservative EBITDA estimates we derived earlier: FY26 EBITDA: ₹226 Cr FY27 EBITDA: ₹313 Cr FY28 EBITDA: ₹510 Cr Net Debt assumption (from BS): ₹180 Cr Formula: Mcap = (EBITDA × Multiple) – Net Debt

9/ 📌 Key Efficiency Ratios (Hospital-Specific) • ROCE improving → 14–16% • ARPOB: 82k → 89k (FY26–28) • EBITDA/bed rising → crosses 16–17 lakh/bed by FY28 • Occupancy stable at 64% (conservative) • Case mix driven by high-value specialities

8/ 📐 Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Highlights • Net debt reducing; FY25 debt ~₹279 Cr • CFO strengthening (₹146 Cr FY25) • FY25 capex spike due to FAR + Raipur • Low CWIP → major projects already capitalized • Comfortable D/E → room for leverage if required

7/ Financials Assumptions:64% occupancy,slow Raipur ramp,conservative ARPOB & margins FY26 • Revenue: ₹1,370 Cr • EBITDA: ₹226 Cr • PAT: ₹128 Cr FY27 • Revenue: ₹1,840 Cr • EBITDA: ₹313 Cr • PAT: ₹191 Cr FY28 • Revenue: ₹2,757 Cr • EBITDA: ₹510 Cr • PAT: ₹318 Cr

📊 Conservative Bed Count Projection (FY26–FY30) • FY26: 710 beds • FY27: 950 beds • FY28: 1,350 beds • FY29: 1,350 • FY30: 1,350 (No South Delhi capex announced → excluded from base case.)

5/ 🏥 Gurgaon Ramp-Up • FY26 avg beds: ~700 • FY27 avg: 850 (partial FAR ramp) • FY28 avg: 1,000 (full expanded capacity) • Tower 3 + specialty mix → ARPOB strength & margin uplift.

4/ 🏥 Raipur Ramp-Up (Realistic & Guided) • 0–6 months → 35–70 beds (commissioning; loss-making). • 6–12 months → 100–150 beds. • 12–18 months → 180–220 beds, breakeven achieved. • 18–30 months → 260–320 beds (full ramp). Full-scale contribution only from FY29.

3/ Operating Metrics (Guidance) • Occupancy: 62–64% (steady-state target 70%). • ARPOB growth: 6–7% YoY; price hikes 1.5–2%. • Margins: Gurgaon to reach 25% EBITDA in 3–4 years; consolidated trending 20%+. • Capex: ₹250 Cr (Gurgaon + Raipur).

2/ Management Guidance (Actual) • Gurgaon: Expanding from ~700 →1,000 beds (100+ 200 FAR additions) • Timeline: 12–18 months from Q2 FY26 → fully ramps in FY28 • Raipur: 350-bed super-speciality; operations begin Mar 2026 • Startup loss: ₹18–20 Cr; breakeven: 12–18 months.

#ArtemisMedicare 1/ Artemis is entering its biggest growth cycle ever. Strong tertiary-care presence (Onco, Neuro, Ortho, Cardiac, Renal, Transplants). Major trigger: Gurgaon + Raipur expansion taking capacity to 1,350 confirmed beds by FY28.

Using PE 30 for bull-case valuation (justified by margins + expansion): FY26 Market Cap = ₹720 crore FY27 Market Cap = ₹900 crore #Asarfi #AsarfiHospital #AsarfiHospitals

Bull case assumes 15% PAT margin, achievable if oncology traction continues, payer mix improves, and cost-control stabilizes. Using guided revenue: FY26 PAT = ₹24.0 crore (160 × 15%) FY27 PAT = ₹30.0 crore (200 × 15%)

Using a conservative PE 25, the base-case valuation comes to: FY26 Market Cap = ₹560 crore FY27 Market Cap = ₹700 crore Against the current market cap of ₹419 crore, this implies: FY26 upside of ~34% FY27 upside of ~67%