Japans Balance of payments has exploded when our rates went up. It’s now a 5% surplus. I believe Brad Setser has the data set.

This is exactly why we want to reduce imports. When someone says this is scary it’s not. Lower net exports means America is less in debt. That’s a good thing.

RT @SpecialSitsNews: This is VERY dangerous. Japanese are bringing up their treasury holdings in trade negotiations. Imagine there are MA….

If you want an independent Fed then past an Amendment. But my guess is we wouldn’t want a truly independent Fed and want a check on their power. A rogue central banker could cause significant havoc without a check by the executive who needs to get voter approval every 4 years.

Lot of other quasi government agencies exists. FINRA has a lot of power. They shouldn’t be independent either. The Executive executes policy. So there is a much bigger issue here than just the Feds Independence.

Fed being independent is good most of the time. But monetary and fiscal policy are linked and they talk all the time to coordinate policy so it’s only been semi-independent the whole time. But my belief is if Trump wanted 0% rates tomorrow he has the legal power to do that.

Trump has legal cause to fire Powell for the 2018 and 2022 mistakes. That’s in the statute. But constitutionally all these semi-private agencies created by Congress. These powers are vested in the Executive branch constitutionally and can’t be outsourced. Fed is one of these.

Second he caused a market crash late 2018 for no reason by overhiking. They even needed to bring out Yellen for a fireside chat to calm the markets. He’s a very good administrator and organizational leadership guy. But he’s not a markets or monetary policy guy.

Thoughts on firing Powell:.He’s objectively bad at his job. He got woke in 2021/2022 and hikes too slowly. “Inflation is transitory”. If you looked at wage growth and nominal income you knew more was going on that supply chains. He got that wrong.

Google is free. You pay a fuck ton.

It’s gotten expensive because instead of calling first three phone book numbers we Google it and the lead is expensive so they need to charge high prices.

Does anyone know hvac economics?

I am old enough to remember when oil was $150. Then 6 months later some dude invented shale oil. And then another dude electric cars. If you change the price of something solutions materialize a few months later.

Maybe a tariff tax is better than making us less competitive than hiking cap gains or the income tax when we run the largest trade deficit.

Perplexity tell me the countries with highest 5 year average trade deficit

Simple equation .Net exports + domestic savings + gov = 0. Current deficit 8%. Current net exports -4%. Deficits needs to be 4%. Tell me how US balances things without tariffs without forcing a massive 2008 style massive US domestic leveraging.

If you hike taxes by $400 billion. The Fed now knows you are in a fiscal drag environment. They have the knowledge they need to now cut aggressively. Stocks wouldn’t be down today if paired with an appropriate 50 bps rate cut. Monetary offset.

Love Milei, but I don’t understand this policy. The currency is too strong and a devaluation makes sense instead of more loans. Personally love shorting peso longer term if you can.

Those with lower surplus than the high patent protected monopoly prices. The U.S. already basically has a swf thru the power to tax and getting a share of private profits. The one huge edge the U.S. feds have is the ability to internalize other benefits that the private can’t.

U.S. would also have an edge buying up breakthru drug supply. Production is often cheap but the U.S. allows drug companies to profit thru monopolies protected by patents. The U.S. can internalize value created and provide the product of high priced medicines cheaply to.