Ruben C. Arslan
@rubenarslan
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Bayescurious evidence enthusiast @the100ci & @error_reviews. Topics: evolution, ovulation, mutation, personality, sexuality, R, open science & source tools.
Berlin, Germany
Joined April 2013
New work by @BjoernHommel and me. We fine-tuned a language model to predict correlations between survey items. In our pilot, the out-of-sample accuracy for item correlations was .71, .86 for reliabilities, and .89 for scale correlations. We're planning a preregistered follow-up.
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The good thing about writing on the internet is you can point critics to your actual words. But the bad thing is that, instead of deleting/correcting their error, motivated critics will simply choose to HIDE your reply and ignore it. https://t.co/FKWZvRzUqp
@Russwarne FWIW, what I actually wrote was that we can eventually expect 14% variance explained and a 6pt gain from 10 embryos. Herasight is reporting 13% variance explained and adding a "dis-attenuation" fudge factor to turn it into a 7pt gain. ( https://t.co/RVvq04FTfI)
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we were robbed
Evolution of the Scaling Era cover: “It’s hard to find unique ways of visualizing AI without defaulting to the obvious,” says @pablodelcan. “In our design process, we experimented with unexpected metaphors—flowers growing out of neural networks, abstract mathematical puzzles
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My Sahlinsesque view is that anthropologists should spend more time arguing with psychologists and philosophers about the central importance of ethnography for understanding human nature, and the fact that they don’t do this more reflects what Sahlins is referring to here about
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Murray: Race differences are higher on culture-free and g loaded tests like the Ravens "Every part of this is incorrect" Murray: Happy to take a look, what's the cite? *months later, on bluesky* Murray: Race differences are higher on abstract, culture-free tests
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Murray and most of race twitter has apparently been fooled by this completely fabricated analysis purporting to show African ancestry is associated with IQ. People lie on twitter all the time, but this is both more revealing and more disturbing than usual. A 🧵
Proposition: Everything that has been learned about the nature of the B/W difference in the subsequent 56 years of research is consistent with Jensen’s expectations in 1969. I stand ready to be corrected.
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On the left is a rabbit. On the right is an elephant. But guess what: They’re the *same image* rotated 90°! In @currentbiology, @chazfirestone & I show how these images—known as “visual anagrams”—can help solve a longstanding problem in cognitive science. https://t.co/5x0S3WqdIR
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@rubenarslan I don't think this is conclusive but I haven't seen anything in the other direction
June mental health emergency room data just came out - still flat despite the ubiquity of LLM use, which might be informative as a limit on what the underlying phenomenon could be https://t.co/ZuP9GupwUn
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People keep talking about AI psychosis. Is there any current evidence that psychosis rates have gone up, so we should doubt the default interpretation, that regular psychotics also use AI now?
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Notes on an emerging legend - ChatGPT psychosis (a thread)
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1. One clear takeaway is that expert forecasts and even user self-reports are not reliable indicators about AI capabilities. Actually Measuring Things is very valuable!
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Indeed. This is not a good way of responding to criticism.
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i think our arguments are more like precision instruments but ok fine i will accept "sledgehammer" (@DorsaAmir @anilkseth @guardian)
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Academic influencers hyping results because p < .05 😃 Actual academics:
📱 Just seeing your phone—even face down—can lower test scores. Why? It drains mental energy. The farther the phone, the higher the GPA. This isn’t about willpower—it’s about situation modification. Change your environment. Change the outcome. That’s why I launched Phones in
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So funny. He wants you to believe in “brain drain” AND he has an app to sell you. https://t.co/mU5nWAY3fx
She then explained the "brain drain" effect. Just having your phone near you, face-down and silent, can lower your IQ test score. Why? Because part of your brain is still resisting it. So, what is the solution?
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in-depth investigations on the origin of Facts™ are crack to me
I recently looked into the claim that chess grandmasters burn 6000 calories a day during tournaments and found that the number was made up by Robert Sapolsky, a popular author and professor link below
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I'm reading Robert Sapolsky's Determined: Life Without Free Will as a mild form of self harm and here are two perfect pages - ego depletion, surgeon's birthdays, Francesca Gino/Dan Ariely study, implicit bias, hungry judges - all on the same page!!!
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I helped @slatestarcodex with this post. At least with respect to some traits (e.g. education, bmi), we are in an epistemic crisis about their heritability. We have multiple strong methods - twin studies, RDR, sibling, GREML-WGS - that are not converging on a consensus reality.
Astral Codex Ten goes deep on the missing heritability question and recent findings on educational attainment https://t.co/ADE6Fl7DEW
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