Q2 was a great quarter for Night Watch, with performance of 23.31%, bringing YTD performance to 20.71%. Results were helped by stock specific investments, including $HAYPP, $XFAB, $MRX, $GOGO, $1126.HK and $COOP.

Which SPAC will buy Only Fans? That's the one I want to own.

RT @AtaiCapital: Atai Capital's Q2-2025 letter is now available - link in bio and below. Readers can join our distribution list via our web….

MRX did a great job addressing the short allegations in yesterday's call. The Sicav entities are consolidated. That makes any elaborate scheme with fake profits with unconsolidated entities impossible. GS also just out with a 'nothing to see here' update.

Trump might now release the Epstein files to distract from the inflation data.

I've been a KEDM subscriber since day 1. Looking forward to chatting on the KEDM happy hour next week.

Another way to see that those allegations are bogus. All profits from structured products (i.e., the Luxembourg Sicav) are booked under 'Hedging & Investment Solutions'. That's the teeny tiny red bar in the below graph. That's not where the growth is.

Roughly a 10% beat by $MRX. For anyone who gave credibility to the short thesis and is like "ooh, those earnings are fake and depend on derivatives moves": MtM of derivatives were a headwind to earnings in H1.

I haven't looked at $LEE in ages, but they really dropped the ball since fighting the $24/share takeover from Alden. EBITDA has dropped due to reinvestments into digital. But digital growth is non-existent. FCF is non existent. Operations are funded by non-core asset disposals😬.

The market's interpretation of today's core CPI:. "Yes, a bit hot, but nothing the Trump administration can't explain away".

This Q, for every earnings report I labeled a company as 'good', 'bad', or 'in-line' before seeing the market reaction. Not based on consensus, but just my own rough observation of the Q. The 'good' reports popped higher but often gave back most gains in the days after. The.

I always ask European companies with a large US shareholder base to do their earnings call after the market close instead of before. Happy to see $HAYPP organize an additional call today for US investors.

Back to real investing!.

Ningi wouldn't have come across as disingenuous if they had:. 1. bothered to fact check their finding with Marex before jumping to erroneous conclusions.2. published the report outside of market hours, giving everyone the opportunity to read the report before acting.3. published

In summary, I love being challenged on my long positions. But in this case, I feel like I wasted a day disproving points that were sloppy, and in many cases easily disproven. Counterparty risk matters for a business like MRX, and I think the short report is akin to slander that.

The one that took a bit more time to understand are the Luxembourg entities. $MRX manages and invests in a Lux Sicav with $7m in equity through which they issue their structured notes. Looking into other banks such as BNP, Sicav's are often chosen as legal vehicle for tax reasons.

Then the market making. I briefly addressed this yesterday. $MRX is attacked because of an unexplained jump in revenue from market making in securities from $3m to $10m. That's a jump in revenue of <2% of total revenue for Q4, of <0.6% for 2024. A jump of 2% of revenue is.

In a short thesis, ideally you'd tie your arguments together by showing that there is a material impact on cash flow. The report claims that 'Marex is losing hundreds of millions of dollars each year'. The report then invents a new metric that takes CFO and deducts increase of

Since yesterday I cherry picked a couple of allegations (it was a sloppy writeup that jumped around minor inconsistencies without any 'gotcha' argument), let me focus on what is probably the most material:. 1. Lack of Cash Flow.2. Market making profits.3. Lux entity.

Yesterday I didn't want to be dismissive of the $MRX short report until I fully understood the allegations. Today, I believe to fully grasp all the arguments, and I'm confident to say that it's a sloppy hit piece that was written by an author with disingenuous motives. 1/n.

I hate investing in turnarounds, but $QDEL seems to be executing well.