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Roderick van Zuylen. CIO at Night Watch Investment Management. Reach out if you want to discuss stocks or triathlon / cycling.
WPB, FL / Boulder, CO
Joined January 2017
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I'm happy to say that my new firm, Night Watch Investment Management, is now in business. I'm planning to post more regular market updates as of January. For now, get a copy of our market outlook 2024 on our (new) website:
After a 15 month process, I finally received my US Immigrant Visa that allows me to live and work in the United States. I will immigrate in 2 weeks. The next steps are to quit my job and launch my own investment fund in January. 2024 will be exciting!!! 1/2
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L'occitane ($973.hk) is a well known luxury brand that is trading at a discount (13x P/E) to peers $EL and $OR.FP because of its listing in HK. That in itself is not exciting, but $973 also owns Sol de Janeiro and Elemis, 2 high growth brands.
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@theSamParr
LVMH management once told me: "We could run the business with half of our employees. We just don't know which half."
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I met with $GOGO mgmt about a year ago. Their CEO and 20% shareholder Oakleigh Thorne is a serial entrepreneur who has built several companies which he's sold to Wolters Kluwer and Pearson. There are many things to like about $GOGO as an investment:
- 90% market share in
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After a 15 month process, I finally received my US Immigrant Visa that allows me to live and work in the United States. I will immigrate in 2 weeks. The next steps are to quit my job and launch my own investment fund in January. 2024 will be exciting!!! 1/2
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With the media industry facing renewed uncertainty due to the stranded negotiations between $CHTR and $DIS, it's useful to rewatch John Malone's annual interview with CNBC from last year. Some notes on his views on the industry:
Video
- The US bundle is
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Chairman and 70% shareholder considering a take private of $973.hk. He'd better offer a good price given that he's just tanked the share price by giving overly conservative margin guidance.
L'occitane ($973.hk) is a well known luxury brand that is trading at a discount (13x P/E) to peers $EL and $OR.FP because of its listing in HK. That in itself is not exciting, but $973 also owns Sol de Janeiro and Elemis, 2 high growth brands.
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Dream International ($1126.hk) continues to comp positively (+65% YoY) due to Disneyland Tokyo reopening. $1126 makes their plush toys. This more than offset the destocking at $FNKO toys which they also make.
3.9x TTM P/E for a growing, >15% ROE company.
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@benton_moss
Local funeral service for pets. Unregulated, so the undertaker digs up the casket after each service and reuses it.
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@contextproblem
Buy side yells 'fuck you' before hanging up the phone. Sell side hangs up the phone and then yells 'fuck you'.
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It usually takes a few days before all the forced selling in spin-offs to end, but $K shareholders received about $0.05 of $KLG for every $1 invested in $K. Of course they're selling.
$KLG is a margin improvement story. Investing in lower cost production will cost them 3 years
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$HAYPP is a very underfollowed retailer of Snus and Nicotine Pouches. What other ecommerce businesses you know have 85% market share, does not spend on marketing and is growing >22% per year?
Newest out.
Haypp Group: Ahead of the Nicotine Pouch Megatrend
$HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $IMBBY $STG
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I'm crowd sourcing a name for a US based hedge fund. One that makes proud reference to my Dutch roots. How about:
1. Dyke Capital
2. Tulip Invest
3. Batavia Capital
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I started working in finance after reading liar's poker and watching Wallstreet. But as a PM in Europe you now spend your time writing ESG engagement letters and incorporating climate risks in your incentive decisions. Where did we go wrong 🤔
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L’Occitane Groupe doesn’t appear willing to pay 35HKD for $973.hk. A reminder that the ‘undisturbed price’ they reference was after $973 intentionally crashed their share price by guiding down margins to 12% by ramping discretionary marketing and ESG spend by 100m EUR.
Chairman and 70% shareholder considering a take private of $973.hk. He'd better offer a good price given that he's just tanked the share price by giving overly conservative margin guidance.
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With $USAP just showing with their Q3 results how strong demand is across the aerospace supply chain, let me explain why I'm so bullish on Montana Aerospace ($AERO.SW). Montana is a vertically integrated provider of aerospace structures. They make aluminium and titanium parts for
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In the first quarter since the launch of our strategy, Night Watch earned a USD return of 6.82%, net of all fees. Please find the quarterly update on our website.
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@BisonInterests
"Applicant needs to be in good health to survive all the company's steak BBQs."
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Ironman was a publicly traded company from 2019 - when it got IPO'd by Dalian Wanda at $8/sh, until 2021, when it got acquired by Advance. The holdco $WSG was subsequently reacquired by Dalian Wanda for $2.55/sh. This is a great case study of underinvestment in a brand...
First
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Solid earnings for $EG7.SS. The market continues to miss that the switch to work-for-hire lowers EBITDA margins, but improves EBITDA-to-FCF conversion. Lower capitalized development. Neutral for FCF. Trades at 6.5x EV/FCF.
Enad Global $EG7.SS down about 20% from its recent peak as it becomes clear that the popularity of their game ‘my singing monsters’ has peaked in Q1. Still only trading at <7x ev / normalised fcf. I can recommend you spend some time ‘researching’ the game.
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What to expect from Enad Global ($EG7.SS) this year?
- Uplisting to the Nasdaq OMX
- Buyback following uplisting
- Initiation of dividend
- Return to growth as MSM comps get lapped
- Ramp up in Capex -> lower FCF generation, but target of >25% ROI
We just posted a 66-page research report on Enad Global 7 to our website.
$EG7 is a Swedish-listed game developer trading at just 1.15x 2026E EBITDA and has ~28% of its market cap in cash today.
Those interested can find the report on our website here -
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The spin-off of Ollamani has all signs of becoming an orphaned security. It won't have a GDR like the RemainCo (forced selling). There is very limited financial information, no clarity on stand-alone costs and unclear Capex requirements to make the Aztec stadium world cup ready.
Mexico's Grupo Televisa $TV is set to spin-off of its sports, gaming and some editorial operations over the next few days to focus on its core business.
Spin effective Feb. 20. $TV's share price is bobbling at multi-year lows..
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Today I attended the $BLDR investor day where we visited a truss facility. The manufacturing efficiency was impressive. I have done many blue collar jobs in my life, but I was always slacking off. Here, everything was focussed on improving board feet per man hour.
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Disneyland Tokyo ($4661.JP) just reported their December quarter. Merchandise sales keep ramping, which benefits Dream International $1126.hk who manufactures plush Mickey Mouse toys.
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Lots of background on $HAYPP. Devin clearly knows the industry well.
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The saga continues. $973.hk might be a French company, but it's in all regards acting like an EM stock.
L’Occitane Groupe doesn’t appear willing to pay 35HKD for $973.hk. A reminder that the ‘undisturbed price’ they reference was after $973 intentionally crashed their share price by guiding down margins to 12% by ramping discretionary marketing and ESG spend by 100m EUR.
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EG7 showing how to host a CMD. It contained everything you might expect from a CMD and I highly recommend the presentation for everyone interested in this company or the gaming industry:
There were:
- ambitious financial targets for 2026 which imply 1.5x
Related party transactions are never a great look, but $EG7.SS just lost $40m in EV for announcing a $15-23m investment. In my eyes, the new mgmt team enjoys some level of credibility that this investment is a decent R/R.
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BTW, I'm hearing there is a huge slowdown for $1126.hk in the US due to $FNKO. Capacity utilization dropped to 80% company-wide. This makes the 65% profit growth even more impressive. Not just Disneyland Tokyo driving this, but also DL Shanghai (growing >100%) and Hong Kong.
Dream International ($1126.hk) continues to comp positively (+65% YoY) due to Disneyland Tokyo reopening. $1126 makes their plush toys. This more than offset the destocking at $FNKO toys which they also make.
3.9x TTM P/E for a growing, >15% ROE company.
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@AlanMCole
It's very country dependent. In the US, cycling feels like suicide. A country like Switzerland feels very safe, but the second you cross the border into Italy, cars are out to kill you again.
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Not often have I learned so much about 1 industry (cat insurance) from just 1 writeup. Might also be a compelling investment case as a bonus.
American Coastal Insurance Corporation $ACIC $UIHC is a remarkably high-quality specialty P&C insurer unfamiliar to most due to a recent corporate restructuring
FY24+ P/E of 2-3x and deep discount to future BV and TBV
New memo is available here:
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For years utilities have claimed they were creating value with renewables because their ROIC was 150bps over their WACC: 6.0% ROIC on what was supposedly a 4.5% WACC.
$ORSTED.DC coming down from 5x book is only the first step in markets returning to normal.
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Has the FTC ever considered they might be doing the consumer a favor by letting $JBLU take $SAVE off the market?
$54 to bring carry-on onto the plane, for a $50 ticket!!!
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To be fair, if you run an investment fund in The Netherlands, only 1 bank is still willing to give you a bank account and they charge €5k in fees / yr plus an initial €3k. Equally messed up.
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I'm on a road trip from WPB to Boulder, so could not miss this opportunity to stop at $JOE to see what they're up to. Latitude Margaritaville seems to be selling well. They just closed on house
#1
,060 last week (vs 865 at the end of q3) and I think they pre-sold another 100
1/n
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@Cyclical_invest
French. They decided to list in HK in 2010 because they thought China would be their largest market. Just like Prada and Samsonite.
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With Uranium making new highs, how long until the market realizes that $YAK.CN is just an investment portfolio with oil equities and uranium trading below NAV of roughly C$1.85 / share? 1/2
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@pernasresearch
My best one:
Me - *picking up the phone*
Stranger: "Hi, I'm the secretary of <colleague who is chairman at a public company>. Let him call me back asap, the police is raiding our office."
30 minutes later, stock -50%.
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What to expect for H2 2023 from my favorite plush toy manufacturer ($1126.hk):
- Continued weakness in plastic toys due to $FNKO weakness
- Hard to replicate H1 plush margins of 30%, but YoY still growth due to reopening Disneyland
- Higher dvd payout. 40-50%, or 13-15% yld?
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Related party transactions are never a great look, but $EG7.SS just lost $40m in EV for announcing a $15-23m investment. In my eyes, the new mgmt team enjoys some level of credibility that this investment is a decent R/R.
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@mavix_leon
Seems like an interesting company with a nice product, but it went from being an unknown Bulgarian small cap to a fintwit favorite in weeks.
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It took the market 2 days to figure out $USAP earnings were extremely good. +15% today after a muted reaction yesterday.
With $USAP just showing with their Q3 results how strong demand is across the aerospace supply chain, let me explain why I'm so bullish on Montana Aerospace ($AERO.SW). Montana is a vertically integrated provider of aerospace structures. They make aluminium and titanium parts for
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The launch of Night Watch Investment Management has been getting quite some publicity in both the US and The Netherlands. Here is Investment Officer:
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@michaeljburry
Obese Americans driving their car to the food bank. This is not what poverty looks like. It's a classical case of over consumption and bad choices.
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Technogym (TGYM.MI) seems like a company whose products are getting more ahead of competition. But growth in the US remains disappointing. Poor distribution?
Life Fitness was sold by $BC in 2019 for ~0.5x sales. $TGYM trading for 2x P/S.
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@joelbasson
@MetacriticCap
V Pay is Visa and Maestro is Mastercard, just over their debit network.
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@MikeFritzell
What I've been taught:
1. Why it's cheap.
2. What is going to change?
3. What is the downside protection if you are wrong?
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@alluvialcapital
$1126.hk at 3x 2023 p/e with a quarter of the mc in net cash and growing long term. >15% roe.
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On days like this, my counter-cyclical names such as $FCFS and $AMRK are doing exactly what I own them for. That's why you pay premium multiples for scarce assets that function as hedges.
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A long thread to say that $PM is a very diluted play on Zyn. Instead, look at $HAYPP as a more direct play. 👇🏽👇🏽
Philip Morris $PM: US ZYN sales are just ~5% of group sales, despite all the press attention lavished on it
Your opinion on US ZYN, whether positive (fast growth) or negative (FDA risk), should not be main factor driving your investment view on PM
(Swedish Match smokefree sales
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US industry is competitive because of its low cost of energy (among others). If you blow up wages by too much, the only way to regain competitiveness in a few years is a much weaker USD.
United Auto Workers proposal:
-40% increase in hourly pay over 4 years
-Reduced 4-day, 32-hour workweek
-Faster path to top pay
-Shift back to defined benefit pensions
-Cost-of-living adjustments
-5+ weeks of vacation, more paid holidays, extended parental leave
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$RKT.LN being panicked sold on a $60m legal verdict. It seems impossible to prove whether RKT is to blame, but that seems irrelevant in a jury based system. Easy to draw a parallel to Bayer.
12x P/E for a consumer staple growing MSD with only 1.5x ND / EBITDA.
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At 2023 guided EPS of 9.50-11.00, $BC trades at 7x earnings. That leaves a lot of room for earnings growth and a rerating when boat sales inevitably recover.
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@MikeFritzell
Which person in l'occitane thinks it's a good idea to leak all their m&a discussions all the time?
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On Feb 1, Sodexo ($SW.FP) will spin off its meal benefit business called Pluxee, which is a peer of $EDEN.FP. As a stand alone business, Pluxee will have to grow LDD and expand margins to 37%. EDEN has always been a compounder bro favorite.
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I should probably have pointed out that the quarterly includes a piece on $HAYPP.
In the first quarter since the launch of our strategy, Night Watch earned a USD return of 6.82%, net of all fees. Please find the quarterly update on our website.
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Ideally this gets relisted on the Paris stock exchange. There are no such plans at the moment. But with significant inside ownership, management is incentivized to do the right thing.
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Funny how there is no bottom in this market for value stocks without catalyst. Take $ALD.FP, Europe’s largest independent car lessor which recently merged with Leaseplan. They have been overearning during COVID due to strong residual values. Earnings will normalise while at the
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@IggyOnInvesting
$KIST has gotten a bit complicated right? With lower gas prices, high capex, a ramp in production in 2025, tax rebates, deferred taxes, a legal claim on taxes already paid and an unknown tax rate going forward, how would you value this?
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Fortunately for $SIVB management they managed to sell their shares just in time.
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After buying a bunch of 7% cap rate RE, and buying back shares 50-100% above today's share price, $LAZY decides to do a rights offering. The only reason I can think of is that the CEO wants to get fired to cash his severance pay.
Are there examples of high cost-of-capital businesses investing heavily in real estate, where they actually get credit for this strategy? $LAZY and $HZO are prime examples. As a boat dealer, $HZO trades at 5x (depressed) 2023 P/E, but bought IGY (marinas) for 15x EBITDA.
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I'll be splitting my time between West Palm Beach, FL and Nyack, NY in the next few months, with the intention to permanently settle down in Florida thereafter. Anyone in those areas who wants to talk stocks or race road bikes, let me know!
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Where are the Fintwit hot takes on what this means for the aerospace sector? Any chance this either leads to a grounding the Boeing 737's or a slowdown in production?
BREAKING: Alaska Airlines plane makes emergency landing in Portland, Oregon after window blows out in mid-air.
Several items, including phones, were sucked out of the plane when it suddenly depressurized. Everyone is safe.
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At the same time, a company saying there is a value disconnect every Q without doing anything about it might be a bit of a red flag. $DK
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They say being in the market for decades makes a man humble...
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Making a mandatory stop at an hotel in Campeche, to turn the Mexican road trip into equity research. The 120 room hotel is fully booked due to the holidays. is trading at 40% of replacement cost.
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$FTK.GY finally waking up it seems. Trading activity is ~15% above last year.
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A short thread on $CTHR. Charles & Colvard was the first company to sell and produce synthetic moissanite. Moissanites are 1 grade softer than diamonds (harder than other gem stones), have more sparkle and come at 5-10% the cost.
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Why do all listing businesses like Zillow $ZG and Cargurus $CARG insist on diluting their high margin businesses with risky, low margin activities such as flipping houses / cars or lending?
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@Josh_Young_1
I'm wondering, did the endowment stick with you during the difficult years, in 2018/19?
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Good analysis of an interesting stock. $YAK.CN
We're out with a new write-up. This is a fun, interesting one and definitely not our typical investment.
The company is Mongolia Growth Group $YAK. MGG's CEO and largest shareholder is Harris Kupperman, "Kuppy"
@hkuppy
. His hedge fund Praetorian Capital returned 8x net since
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