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@rh10_X

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analyze probabilities

Joined November 2022
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
whaaat?! +184% from my tweet.Not bad. Doing nothing for now.Just waiting😉
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
¯\(ツ)/¯
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
One reason I like @Polymarket : it behaves more like an exchange than a betting site. You're not betting against a house. You're trading with other participants. There's no bookmaker setting odds. Prices move only when someone is willing to buy or sell at a different level. That
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
High probability ≠ good price. And @Polymarket makes this mistake feel very "safe" Here's the math most people ignore👇 If you buy YES at 90±,you're risking 90 to make 10. That means you need to be right ~90%+ just to break even-before fees and slippage. High-probability
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
A few things about Polymarket. @shayne_coplan built Polymarket not as a betting platform,but as a tool to measure reality more accurately than headlines,polls or loud opinions. His idea was simple,yet uncomfortable: markets aggregate information faster-and more honestly-than
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
5⃣ @Polymarket buttons most users don’t even know exist Polymarket looks simple-but that’s deceptive. Under the surface, there are tools that completely change how you manage risk👇 1. Order Book Shows where real liquidity sits. The price you see is just the last trade-not
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
3 things I always check before making a @Polymarket prediction: ❕The rules-they decide more than the odds. ❕Mispriced ranges-value hides where people don’t look. ❕Crowd bias-if everyone agrees,I double-check the opposite. Simple routine,but it filters out most bad
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
That was obvious. +213% . Moving onđŸ«Ą @Polymarket ❀
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
I’ve checked all Powell markets today on @Polymarket , and honestly-most of them feel like traps. Especially the Inflation ones. The rules literally remove half of the usual phrases he uses. But there’s one term that Powell repeats almost every conference,no matter the topic:
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
Recap of yesterday on @Polymarket : Trump PA speech-3/3 hits (Biden 7+, Inflation 7+, China 5+). That set returned approximately +59% ROI. Champions League-1/2 (Atletico hit, Inter didn’t). Total result for the day: +29% ROI across all predictions. Not bad for one night of
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
Last one for today🙃 Trump’s December 9 Pennsylvania appearance is officially billed as an economic speech-and that completely changes how these @Polymarket markets should be evaluated. Three interesting picks,in my view : 1) China 5+ (~0.49) China is the backbone of Trump’s
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
Today’s Champions League markets on @Polymarket look interesting. Two spots instantly caught my eye 👇 1) AtlĂ©tico ML (~0.43) PSV look sharp, but their defense collapses vs structured teams. AtlĂ©tico don’t play chaotic football-they control space and tempo. This shouldn’t be
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
The Avatar:Fire and Ash box office market on @Polymarket is mispriced-and the reason isn’t the numbers, it’s the rules 🧐 The resolution uses The Numbers, counts the 3-day weekend including previews, and if the final value lands exactly between brackets, it resolves to the
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@rh10_X
razdva
2 months
Deposited $100 into @Polymarket today. Not pretending it’s a huge bankroll-but it’s enough to learn fast, make real decisions, and see how far logic + discipline can go. Let’s trade realityđŸ«Ą
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@rh10_X
razdva
6 months
Ripped it from the paper hands Waiting for the reveal 🌊 @Illiquid_nft
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@rh10_X
razdva
7 months
vibes on @Illiquid_nft . Cooked up something rare today.
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@rh10_X
razdva
7 months
Squad’s on base. And yeah — it’s looking crispy. HYPERACTIVES AAAAAAAAAAAAA @ADHD_HL
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