Respeculator
@respeculator
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Resource Speculator. “You've got to risk it for the biscuit" Everything said is OPINION not fact, DYODD. https://t.co/gnaVt4eTjD
Brisbane, Australia
Joined July 2020
Retail puke out their $SBM.AX holding cos of short-sightedness. ~A$500m of capital is required to put in a sulphide circuit and associated infra upgrades at Simberi... to produce ~225kozpa at A$2,000/oz cost in a very short timeframe. At A$6,000/oz gold it's printing A$900m pa
$SBM Wow, broker data for the day of CR announcement - top buyers are Argonaut Securities and Canaccord Genuity. Argonaut Securities is the lead manager. It's not often that a lead manager or their clients not only take part in CR but also buy on market after. Held $SBM.AX
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The world’s most influential leaders, investors and changemakers will converge at FII9 to shape the future under the theme ‘The Key to Prosperity,’ Oct 27–30 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Attend as a Member.
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Over the past fortnight Eagle Eye Asset Management have basically underwritten two African mining projects sinking near on A$500m to fully finance the Kobada gold mine in Mali $TRE.AX and the Minim Martap bauxite mine in Cameroon $CAY.AX through to production. Worth watching what
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Codelco August Copper Output Lowest Since At Least 2003 - COCHILCO
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Copper production from Chilean state-run miner Codelco tumbled 25% in August, data from copper commission Cochilco showed. https://t.co/tbDtIkmJql
mining.com
Production fell to 93,400 metric tons for the month.
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There’s pros and cons to the low cost of capital. Financing becomes easier. Companies trade at higher multiples.. but the big negative is supply continually gets pushed out so margins stay compressed.. 🥲🙃
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The problem with lithium is this… it’s in its infancy.. there’s a bunch of known (easy to get to) mineral deposits out there that have never been exploited as the market hasn’t been there… AND.. the cost of capital is near on zero as governments, the Chinese and every other
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Pretty much recycling any capital from small cap torque plays, gold names, "critical minerals" or pureplays that get a premium into some of these bigger miners 👇... & #S32... it's better than cash and there's a value arbitrage building on the pureplays vs diversifieds which gets
Any "froth" in the metals & mining space seems to be isolated to select "critical minerals" plays or to an extent precious metals.. Major miners like $BHP, $RIO, $AAL.L, $GLEN.L all trading below their 5yr highs.. Hell - if you believe the below $GLEN.L maybe trading at ~3.5x
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WTAF....
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“If you have #gold, you’re dumb as fuck.” ~Mark Cuban December 2022 ($1,800/oz)
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Is the world preparing for war? Tungsten
"Conspiracy theory" time 👇 Phase 1: Russia Phase 2: Middle East Phase 3: China Phase 1: Tie up Russia in the north so they're unable to support their allies in the Middle East Phase 2: Pivot away from Russia leaving Europe to hold the bag. Provide strategic air support for
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$EQR.AX 👀👀
Joined Mark in $EQR.AX here whilst awaiting @HesperianMetals to sort itself out and list... been an absolute lemon but new mgmt, recap and Tungsten price moving from US$30,000/t to US$65,000/t covers many sins.. Targeting 3,000tpa as a pit pushback means higher throughput and
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Updating the below with $TECK new guide and #zinc output from two of the biggest mines at Red Dog & Antamina is dropping from >1mtpa to <0.5mtpa... of an ~8mtpa ex China market... probably nuffin
There's around 8mtpa of ex-China #zinc mine supply. ~1mtpa of that ~8mtpa (~12.5%) come from the Red Dog (~550ktpa) and Antamina (~450ktpa) mines. Over the next couple of years the zinc output from these two mines will almost halve 🤔
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I made these numbers up last week but based on today’s announcement may not be all that far off the mark (broken clock, twice a day etcetera)… $10bn over 6yrs to produce 250ktpa. It’s $40,000/t of annual production. At current $10,500/t Cu px margins prob only $4,000/t so 10yr
QB2 was supposed to be a 3yr build, US$6bn capex, 300ktpa Cu project. It became a 6yr build, US$10bn capex, 250ktpa Cu project. I made all those numbers up but you get the drift.. adjust NPV and backsolve breakeven Cu price. No skilled labour (technical risk), hugely
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You’ve just lost 100kt out of 2026 for QB2 (and smalls Highland Valley). Escondida is dropping 400kt. Grasberg is likely 400kt+ And Kamoa is likely 250kt. 2026 just got real toight. #copper
This is a YUGE downgrade in QB2.. first pick 2025 new vs old.. second is new 5yr guide and third is prior 5yr guide $TECK
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So Teck guidance, let’s talk about it… Set aside the ~100kt d/g at QB2 in 2026 and ~$500mm of TSF capex The fact the high end of QB2 guidance in 2028 is ~250kt and doesn’t start with a 3 is incredible when you zoom out a bit Construction started in 2019 so ~10 yrs later still
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This is a YUGE downgrade in QB2.. first pick 2025 new vs old.. second is new 5yr guide and third is prior 5yr guide $TECK
Teck’s total 2025 #copper guidance is now 415,000-465,000 tonnes; 2026 is 455,00-530,000 tonnes; 2027 is 505,000-580,000 tonnes; 2028 is 435,000-510,000 tonnes.
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