Rekt Specter
@rektspecter
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Prediction markets strategist | Polymarket trader | Recovered degen. Follow for alpha threads
alpha →
Joined July 2021
Anyone can access a $60,000 payoff but not everyone understands the equation If p(return before GTA6) < price implied then EV = (1 − p) × payout > cost no inefficiency assumed price = consensus under uncertainty market link https://t.co/ZbW6EERwrU
Adin Ross was left in SHOCK after finding out he could make $60,000 if Jesus Christ DOESN’T return before GTA 6 releases 😳 “Nah that’s gotta be a glitch… so if Jesus Christ doesn’t return before GTA 6, I make $60,000? that’s a literal LOCK”
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🚨 Hormuz trap. Iran claims control of the strait carrying 20% of global oil. Tanker traffic down ~90%. Trump considers U.S. escorts for ships. One hit tanker could trigger a long maritime war. Prediction markets now show ~80–90% risk of disruption. https://t.co/4ZHrhA42If
That’s one of the fastest geopolitical repricings I’ve seen. Just 7 days ago the market priced a 15% chance that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz. Today it's 81%. And the real world is already reacting. Supertankers are backing away from the Persian Gulf. More than 60
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That’s one of the fastest geopolitical repricings I’ve seen. Just 7 days ago the market priced a 15% chance that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz. Today it's 81%. And the real world is already reacting. Supertankers are backing away from the Persian Gulf. More than 60
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THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS TOTALLY CLOSED APPROXIMATELY OVER 300 VESSELS ARE CURRENTLY ANCHORED NEAR THE STRAIT
BREAKING: IRGC says Hormuz will be shut and ships trying to pass will be set on fire. Prediction markets just exploded from 40% to 70% in minutes. That’s a massive repricing of global energy risk. https://t.co/BkJieLnlff
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BREAKING: IRGC says Hormuz will be shut and ships trying to pass will be set on fire. Prediction markets just exploded from 40% to 70% in minutes. That’s a massive repricing of global energy risk. https://t.co/BkJieLnlff
polymarket.com
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? (Resolved): View final results and past odds on The World's Largest Prediction Market™
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Reuters and Axios are now also reporting that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been eliminated by an Israeli strike this morning on Tehran. Meanwhile, prediction markets are pricing a 99% probability.
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+$499K in hours. From $56K to over half a million. Yesterday he was buying this at 10% odds for Feb 28 US strikes Iran. Now it’s 100%. Is this insane timing… or does someone know something?
Will the US hit Iran before midnight tomorrow? One trader just put $44K on that and right now his position is up +73%. That means real money is behind the fear of escalation. Diplomacy is sputtering, warships are in place. Wins $418K Check his profile: https://t.co/QPCFWl74wK
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Will the US hit Iran before midnight tomorrow? One trader just put $44K on that and right now his position is up +73%. That means real money is behind the fear of escalation. Diplomacy is sputtering, warships are in place. Wins $418K Check his profile: https://t.co/QPCFWl74wK
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🚨 BREAKING: President Trump directs the Secretary of War and federal agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, UAPs, and UFOs. Markets reacted instantly. On Polymarket, the probability that the U.S. confirms
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Proof: In his Jan 28 interview with @Foresight_News, Vitalik explicitly stated he deployed $440,000 and generated over $75,000 by betting against “frenzy mode” markets. Translation here: https://t.co/PzoZxMyXA3 He even cited examples like fading “Trump Nobel Prize” and “Dollar
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Vitalik Buterin just called prediction markets “corposlop.” But what if I told you he’s quietly one of the most disciplined traders on Polymarket? In his Jan 28 interview, he said he deployed $440,000 and generated over $70,000 in profit by doing one simple thing: find markets
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:::: The wildest BTC bot on Polymarket :::: The numbers are wild: 5,000+ bets/month → +$50K/month That’s why it works? It’s systematic execution on 15-minute BTC markets, where volatility constantly creates small pricing lags. ClawdBot reacts to CEX price moves faster than
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Here’s how Polymarket BTC 15m bots actually work: 1. Track Polymarket BTC 15m markets 2. Mirror the same Chainlink BTC feed 3. Watch CEX prices for tiny delays 4. Enter when Polymarket lags 5. Scale with frequency, not accuracy Automation beats emotion every time.
This coder flipped a $6K deposit into $1,000,000 in one month. Know how to program? Don’t limit yourself to a job. He created his own Polymarket trading bot. The account is 1 month old. He’s making around ~$30K per day. https://t.co/obDiS7hzzg
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This coder flipped a $6K deposit into $1,000,000 in one month. Know how to program? Don’t limit yourself to a job. He created his own Polymarket trading bot. The account is 1 month old. He’s making around ~$30K per day. https://t.co/obDiS7hzzg
polymarket.com
Check out this profile on Polymarket.
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AI is already printing on Polymarket and most people still don’t see it. I tracked an AI driven Polymarket system that quietly generated $391,253 in the last 31 days trading only BTC 15 minute Up Down markets. AI speed beats human IQ. Execution happens before awareness →
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