Matt Collier
@reillocity
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⚾️Analyst/Consultant/Advisor: Scouting, Player Development. FaBIO (Fielding and Ballpark Independent Outcomes) oracle. @RotoBaller contributor. Messages open.
Pittsburgh area, Pennsylvania
Joined December 2018
FaBIO primer. 12 PA outcomes: BB/HBP, K, IFFB, PullLD, CentLD, OppoLD, PullGB,. CentOFFB, OppoOFFB.Percentile Ratings: 97 is ++,84's +,50's avg,16's -, 3's --."slashie"=CTL/K/BATTED BALL PROFILE."brofile"=batted ball profile.Twitter searchbox: @reillocity Firstname Lastname
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hitting instructor = mister miyagi?.
PEYTON CARR 💣 . TIE GAME 🚗 . On-base streak at 16 games, hit streak at 9 games 🔥 . Bot 6 I Mussels 3, Tigers 3
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Can logically infer 2 things:. 1⃣ Padres plan to stretch Mason Miller out in the spring to test waters of returning him to a starting role. 2⃣ Padres do not value De Vries as highly as industry generally does.
SS Leo De Vries (Padres No. 1 prospect) and RHPs Braden Nett (Padres No. 3 prospect), Henry Baez (No. 13 prospect) and Eduarniel Núñez (No. 17 prospect) coming to the A’s for Mason Miller and JP Sears, per source.
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Ben Williamson has yet to make an MLB appearance at shortstop. Expect that to change soon with Eugenio Suarez getting most of the starts at third between now & end of M's 2025. Suarez will DH some, but Williamson should eventually get a start at short when Crawford needs rest.
At @RotoBallerMLB I have an article (penned last week) on Mariners rookie third sacker Ben Williamson. The semi-out-there scenario in which his real-world & fantasy stock soars has him hitting line drives, looking solid to better in spot starts at short.
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Ex-Astros’/now-Orioles’ RHSP Twine Palmer only has ~70 BF since I last ran his ‘25 league through FaBIO, given 6-week absence for unknown reasons. Extreme GB-biased weak contact & high expected run avoidance vs oppo-handers (96 Overall) were the big things in May 14 table.
@GeoffPontesBA Keep an eye on the fastball arsenal of '24 JC pick RHSP Twine Palmer, as his early Low A batted ball profile is grading out to be even more oppressive than the High A one of Anderson Brito is. Palmer has the MLB SP physique (6'5", 200+) than Brito lacks.
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Besides very wanting to escape most of rest of Correa contract money, Twins would logically be at least somewhat skeptical about Griffin Jax being overly successful and/or holding up in a ‘26+ return to starter duty.
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An angle from which a Carlos Correa reunion gains traction has Griffin Jax included to make HOU absorbing larger % of Correa contract more palatable. HOU crosses luxury tax line… but beyond “solid vet leader” Correa gets ‘25 RHRP to pair with (insure on) Abreu + ‘26 SP convert.
FaBIO Evolution: Griffin Jax, '25 Twins RP. Shame on you if the punchline to FaBIO's "What do you call a reliever who rates plus or better at all of CTL, K, & Batted Ball Profile?" rhetorical riddle isn't immediately obvious. That Jax rated comfortably above plus at each of the
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Makes one openly question why there is action allowed on strike versus ball, swing versus no swing, etc. When the bet outcome can be entirely tied to a single athlete’s decision, this behavior is encouraged.
Emmanuel Clase has come in to the game at the beginning of the 9th inning 40 times this season. Here is his Statcast Waste% (pitches that aren't close to zone). First pitch of 9th inning: = 17.5% .Every other pitch = 5.2%. Just speculating, but this how Luis Ortiz got flagged.
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Given the problems with the swing/setup generating far too little loft on batted balls, this is a case where the rookie should spend the maximum CBA-allowed MiLB rehab days in the IL stint’s wake… & KC ought option the player if rehab doesn’t show improvement there.
1B/OF Jac Caglianone has been placed on the 10-Day Injured List. (Left hamstring strain).
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Month+ later & Tigers trio is 2 weeks into cutting AA teeth. MLB bats+club has gone flat enough to need McGonigle to fill a MLB regular spot by Sep end, with door open for 1 of Clark or (power, mostly) Briceno to join him for pre-Oct audition. Should deal for niche MLBers 1st.
'25 FaBIO Plate Profiles: Tigers Trio of McGonigle, Clark, Briceno in High A Midwest League #RepDetroit . Unprecedented FaBIO plate history of Kevin McGonigle includes 100 Overall Ratings posted in '23 R (FCL), '23 A, '24 A, & '24 A+ stops. Pre-'25 concerns were: 1⃣ '24 batted
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Between the 2025 pennant relevance of the MLB Cardinals & where the calendar stands today, wisest move is to select Wetherholt’s contract circa Sep 1 & let him play as much MLB from then forward without exhausting rookie eligibility for 2026.
JJ Wetherholt launches two more long balls tonight. He's demolished Triple-A in his first 8 games and looks primed to force his way into the big club!. Tick tock ⌛️
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I wasn't kidding about Royals not really caring how all of that impacts your fantasy team's numbers, huh?. Wiser fantasy owners must now force rookie position players to show plate competence in MLB games before rostering them. Wreck the MLB lineup if you must, but not mine!.
Fantasy slant. Big power bat Jac Caglianone grounded out 4 times after lining out to CF on a breaking ball away. Since he hasn't been lofting batted balls much as a pro expect MLB foes to very gameplan against him doing that. Such tactics & a cavernous homepark have him.
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The “hit” grades being floated on the MLB Draft broadcast are too high, rather certainly. Probably at least 10 points too many on the 20 to 80 scale in all but a few cases.
With hitting in MLB getting harder by the day, number of college hitters who more fully pass the sniff test for MLB clubs should be very small. Expect the wisers to bias draft classes toward pitching, combo defenders + offensive runners, prep position players more than pitchers.
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Per the same table, Tigers could stand to add some speed athletes ahead beyond others with advanced offensive running instincts.
Tigers again go prep in 1st round. A big part of sustaining pennant relevance ahead involves adding youth via prep draftees & international teen free agent signees to what has been the oldest farm among the 30. Some will become trade trips for “help now!” MLBers, yes.
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Harold Reynolds would be the obvious choice among the 5 main podium panelists to suggest that some players are being taken at certain spots due to bonus amounts offered?.
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It’s not a good idea to announce bonuses while Day 1 is playing out. Don’t allow any of the other 29 clubs to know how much your club has left in its bonus pool when you later swap offers with the same players.
Kade Anderson and the Mariners have agreed to terms for a signing bonus of around $8.8 million, according to a source. That’s roughly $700,000 below slot value for the No. 3 overall pick, allowing them to reallocate that money elsewhere.
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Yes, Gage Wood could be pitching relief frames in the 2025 MLB playoffs… regardless of whatever his post-2025 use role turns out to be.
With the 26th pick in the 2025 Draft, the @Phillies select @RazorbackBSB right-handed pitcher Gage Wood, No. 23 on the Top 250 Draft Prospects list. Watch LIVE:
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Tigers again go prep in 1st round. A big part of sustaining pennant relevance ahead involves adding youth via prep draftees & international teen free agent signees to what has been the oldest farm among the 30. Some will become trade trips for “help now!” MLBers, yes.
Objective-Outcomes-Based MLB Farm System Rankings: #1-#30. All 3 graphics. Consider how better player development (PD) fosters payroll+geography-challenged clubs like CLE, MIL, MIN being relevant most Septembers, poorer PD further bars similar clubs like PIT, CIN from winning.
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They have plenty useful to share about their players but just aren’t able to do that in a public “positives only” environment like this one.
Active NCAA D1 coaches like Vitello, Johnson, etc. shouldn’t be part of MLB Draft coverage. They just say nice things about their players (others they faced), don’t offer anything of critical value. And those types don’t exactly need MLB boosting their exposure to recruits.
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Active NCAA D1 coaches like Vitello, Johnson, etc. shouldn’t be part of MLB Draft coverage. They just say nice things about their players (others they faced), don’t offer anything of critical value. And those types don’t exactly need MLB boosting their exposure to recruits.
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