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Interstellar

@reddragon2604

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What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. Ecclesiastes 1:9

Andromeda Galaxy
Joined July 2009
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
3 days
NVDA Earnings Results Guide/ Consensus/ Whisper/ Actual Rev: 65.0B/ 65.6B/ 67.0-67.6B/ 68.1B Nxt Qtr Rev: --/ 70.8–71.7B/ 76–77B/ 78B GM: 75%/ 74.5–75.0%/ 75.2–75.5%/ 75.2% Slightly above top end of whisper numbers, except for margin which was in line with whisper.
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
6 days
NVDA Earnings Expectations Feb. 25 earnings expectations are as follows: Current Qtr Revenue (Q4 FY26) Guide: 65bn Consensus: 65.6bn Whisper: 67-67.6bn Next Qtr Revenue (Q1 FY27) Consensus: 70.8-71.7bn Whisper: 76-77bn Current Qtr Gross Margin (Q4 FY26) Guide: 75% Consensus:
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
7 days
NVDA Gap and Crap Feb. 26, 2026 We are set up nicely for NVDA to have a high probability of a gap and crap scenario. Growth Phase Jan. 2023 - Jun. 2024: 67% (4/6) of time post earnings day was a gap and run. Maturation Phase Jun. 2024 - Jan. 2026 (today): 83% (5/6) of time
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
10 days
Rock Lobster This Lobster guy is worth a read on occasions or a follow if you want to follow a decent account. His recent track record has been fairly good. He went against his Bowtied Clan by mocking the leader Bowtied Bull when the leader said we were going into a
@BowTiedLobster
Lobster "兄貴”
10 days
He also zeroes the reader in on NVDA as if the data shows it has made the biggest shift despite the fact that anyone who studies the graph carefully can see NVDA has the SMALLEST shift (basically unchanged) and the asset with the biggest shift is MSFT. Reprehensible stuff tbh.
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
11 days
Looks like not all investors know how to use AI to find all the Montgomery Cycles. Couldn’t even find the next one on Feb. 28, yet I show you all the upcoming ones throughout the year. Clearly this is not an AI issue, but a lazy user issue - they need to work harder - prompt
@reddragon2604
Interstellar
12 days
Planetary Cycles and Moon Phases I understand this sounds like mumbo jumbo BS, but if market participants act on it and attribute it to celestial body events, then I must follow it as well. Below are the key events that Milton Berg follow. The one key event coming up is the
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
12 days
Bitcoin and Psychology - Riot, one of the oldest Bitcoin miner believes in the 4 year cycle as they sold above $100k BTC to transition into AI data centers. BowtiedGrey says you should incorporate Riots move into your own analysis and to incorporate whether or not BTC can
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
12 days
Planetary Cycles and Moon Phases I understand this sounds like mumbo jumbo BS, but if market participants act on it and attribute it to celestial body events, then I must follow it as well. Below are the key events that Milton Berg follow. The one key event coming up is the
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
13 days
Potential BTC October Bottom Dates - September 22–24, 2026: Quantum World Congress (Washington D.C.): If the US Govt moves up its migration deadline, crypto markets will panic. - October 5: exactly 364 days post peak. - October 26, 2026: PQC + IQT Conference (New York):
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
14 days
NVDA Put Options We never got retail to be suckered into a false breakaway run post 193 break. But instead we had weakness at the end of last week as speculators front ran and bought a ton of put options at the 193 level confirming it is a ceiling in anticipation of a poor
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
16 days
China supply is and will be the biggest threat to the thesis that Memory names (SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung) are super cheap and have long runways. It is very conceivable that DDR5 bottleneck gets relieved by end of this year, and more importantly HBM4’s are flooded into market
@itsDanielWu
Daniel Wu
17 days
Feels like some important context was left off here... The HBM shortage/bottleneck is only half of the message. Below is the full response the SMIC CEO gave re the current memory shortage (translated using chatgpt). If the commodity DRAM and NAND shortage for PC and smartphones
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
17 days
SPX Sometimes life is stranger than fiction. I think it would be comical if NVDA earnings did jumpstart the decline in equities. The chart below (syncing the Aug. 1998 Asian Financial Crisis low with the Apr. 2025 Tariff Tantrum low) is still in play as an analog. I
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
17 days
Semis, NVDA and MU Patience and timing is everything... in life and in trading. 1. Long bull market in Semis --> 2. Energy rises --> 3. Volatility rises 2025-2026 is shaping to be a redux of 2023-2024 (see charts below). The 2025 November decline in Semis that followed a
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
18 days
BTC Correlations vs Causations There is this new explanation for BTC's decline, and by extension crypto's decline, that it is "Software", and that if you plot IGV (tech software ETF) vs BTC, it explains it perfectly. The correlation is perfect for 5 years and it explains that
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
19 days
Loving the upward thrust in NVDA since the 171 lows. This rally is strong and I need it to be strong for it to reach the price targets below for a potentially juicy short opportunity. Timing remains the same - this week upward momentum should still be strong, next week
@reddragon2604
Interstellar
23 days
NVDA I think Wolf unloaded on the way down during past 2 days. That said I still have my entry level semi short and am looking for increasing the Semi short via NVDA Puts. We are still early in the degrossing process. QQQs from peak to bottom is only down ~6%. We are
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
23 days
NVDA I think Wolf unloaded on the way down during past 2 days. That said I still have my entry level semi short and am looking for increasing the Semi short via NVDA Puts. We are still early in the degrossing process. QQQs from peak to bottom is only down ~6%. We are
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
24 days
First they come for the speculative bubbles, then the high beta names, and then the generals, and finally, finally the King 👑 comes last. 3 weeks before the King arrives in town.
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
25 days
Semis, NVDA, MU, AMD earnings Semis are having a hard time rallying, and it will get even harder from here. As discussed previously the reaction to the AMD earnings is telling, now -8% in AH. Why such a poor reaction when they beat on Q4 earnings and beat on guidance for Q1
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
25 days
Gold/Silver and What was Averted? The gold/silver bounce will not last and something changed on Friday Jan. 30. The appointment of Warsh is a paradigm shift. Treasury and the Fed will work much closer going forward. Nicoletos (his analysis below) makes a great point that I
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@reddragon2604
Interstellar
26 days
Semis and Precious Metals Memory names made a near full recovery with Sandisk posting an impressive rebound completely negating Friday’s decline. Other names followed including Micron. Gold and Silver did NOT recover and instead sold off further today. I suspect there is
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