RJ Talks
@realRJTalks
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Founder of @Snapforce checkout new daily show at NotifyAmerica Youtube:
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@ninaturner
Yes $3 billion, and yet, Ukraine's gotten $100+ bln in taxpayer money. Much happier with our
@Spacex
investment.
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Home Builders begin liquidating new home stock.
9.2 months supply of new houses for sale.
We've all known they've been hoarding houses, but they just dumped them onto the market in November.
Historically speaking, whenever they do this it tends to line up with a recession. As
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@JUNlPER
None of the content on Libs of Tiktok is her own thoughts, she re-posts members of the LGBTQ community's content, so basically she promotes them (gives them more of a voice), please explain what she did for you to demand her cancelation?
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Corporate media is getting nervous.
Watch the editor-in-chief at the WSJ lament the rise of independent media.
"If you go back not that long ago, We owned the news. We were the gatekeepers, and we very much owned the facts as well" - Emma Tucker
Their monopoly on information
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Klaus Schwab giving his opinion on Libertarianism.
"You have this anti-system movement... there is of course an anti-system which is called libertarianism, which means to tear down everything."
Imagine his thoughts about the Declaration of Independence, the *quintessential*
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The Fed pivot is here.
Weakest Jerome Powell we've seen since they began tightening policy 20 months ago.
Right in line with Joe Biden's public statement yesterday demanding "no more hikes".
What's interesting is, they used that language purposely, they knew what the market's
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Vivek says he will peg the US dollar to hard commodities.
Only candidate who understands the issues that matter, a currency must be backed by something, otherwise it's no different than bitcoin, and at some point it will collapse.
MUST WATCH: Vivek Ramaswamy shares his thoughts on Bitcoin ETF's, the BRICS alliance, and how he will peg the U.S. dollar to hard commodities.
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Anyone who doesn't believe all the stimulus rolled out by the govt is behind inflation should take a look at this.
Right on track, as the Fed sucks the additional dollars out of the system, CPI falls along with it.
They began this process 18 months ago, so far they've burned
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U.S. consumers are in trouble, and are now reporting the worst buying conditions on record (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey).
With total mortgage debt 2x what it was during the peak of the 2006 housing bubble.
The 30 year mortgage rate 150 basis points higher
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The housing market continues getting worse.
Pending home sales just fell to their lowest level in history (per the NAR).
Significantly lower than during the worst months of the GFC.
Mortgage rates are now over 7.6% and likely to break 8% before the end of the year.
There were
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With multiple hot wars raging around the world, Venezuela threatening to invade Guyana, China reportedly telling Biden face to face he plans to take Taiwan, and now the Houthi's mobilizing to enter the Gaza Strip.
Turn on corporate media, all you hear them asking is what will
🚨 BREAKING: HOUTHI LEADER THREATENS US WARSHIPS
Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi warns:
"We will not stand idly by if the Americans... target our country or wage war against it."
"Any American targeting of our country will be targeted by us, and we will make American
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Lot's of inventory in the pipe.
Single family housing starts (units that broke ground), just reached the highest level in 15 years, 1.143 million.
For much of the last year we thought builders had abandoned single family and were focused primarily on multi-family. Turns out not
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I've been wondering how they'll explain all the people dropping dead from heart failure since the pandemic. Well we have an answer...
Here's the "hook" the media needed to explain this.
It's not a negative side effect from the vaccine, instead it's the new covid variant that
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Next time someone says the housing market won't crash, show them this chart and ask if it's normal.
In a fair valued market, it's cheaper to buy than
#rent
. The inverse we have now is completely out of whack.
#housingmarket
#homeprices
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U.S. Government spending is out of control.
With no change in current policies the CBO estimates federal debt held by the public will grow to 200% of GDP within 20 years.
That's also assuming an interest rate of ~3%.
The cost to service our nation's debt crossed $1 trillion
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$250 oil...?
Goldman Sachs presents two possible scenarios for a spike in oil prices:
1st: "The key question for energy is whether the conflict broadens regionally or not. If it does, oil prices could climb above $130/bbl on the risk of a Persian Gulf shutdown."
2nd: "If
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ALL job gains in March were from foreign-born workers. Native born workers lost jobs in March.
The Fed is riding this immigration wave.
CNBC: "Will you please disclose how many [immigrant] work permits you've issued?"
Top Biden economist Lael Brainard: "Yeah so I can't give
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Al Gore worrying about non-main stream media, warning it "threatens democracy".
He's probably having a conniption over Alex Jones returning to X.
You know they're losing when they start saying the quiet part out loud.
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Median sale price of new single family homes now down -12.5% from peak.
New homes for sale on the market just reached a staggering 9.2 months supply (451,000 new homes for sale).
This is only new homes for sale, with mortgage rates falling 130 basis points in the last two
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Multifamily real estate loans just collapsed.
This is year over year lending growth, for commercial loans.
Part of this fall is the year over year effect, but not all of it, not even close. This is a massive drop, and came during the last few weeks of the year.
Maybe buckling
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Even though Trump's a lock for the GOP primary,
@VivekGRamaswamy
has been remarkably refreshing.
One clip people should watch from last night's debate.
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Aaron Rogers suspended from Pat McCaffey Show after his comments about Jimmy Kimmel.
Even though it feels like the tide is turning, this shows cancel culture is still alive and well.
Disappointing.
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Telling American's what they can do just pisses us off, makes us want to do it more. That includes telling us who we can vote for.
These people are so stupid it's comical.
"Maine Bars Trump From State’s 2024 Presidential Primary Ballot"
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Youtube is updating their "sensitive events" policy for 2024.
What entails a sensitive event? How an election is run, a pandemic, the Israel or Ukraine war?
It's all about inducing a sense of "self-censorship", training you to think before you speak. Being scared to say what
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The President says no more rate hikes...
What does Joe Biden need in order to have a chance of beating Trump?
A strong economy.
Political pressure is a given, if Biden's saying this publicly, how much pressure do you think Jerome Powell's receiving behind the scenes?
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Texas isn't messing around. Finally someone is doing something to address the problem.
The Texas Military Department said they are blocking any organization that is perpetuating the flow of illegal migrants crossing the southern border... referring to the federal government.
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Commercial Real Estate is in free fall.
Down -22% from it's March 2022 peak (per Greenstreet CPPI).
The office sector has been obliterated, but Retail and Multifamily are now falling as well.
In a Dec 4th note, Morgan Stanley said valuations "are expected to decline another
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Market now pricing in massive Fed cuts next year.
8 rate cuts priced in for 2024.
73% chance first cut happens in March '24.
100 basis points in cuts by July '24.
I didn't think the Fed would be stupid enough to begin cutting without a spike in unemployment, but we haven't
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US debt crossed another milestone yesterday, surpassing $34 trillion.
For some context, in 2009 US debt was only $10.6 trillion.
We've borrowed:
$1 trillion over the last 3 months
$2 trillion over the last 6 months
$11 trillion over the last 4 years
This is
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Listen to this shit... MSNBC decides not to carry Trump victory speech live.
Rachel Maddow says "there's a reason why we have stopped giving an unfiltered live platform to remarks to former President Trump... There's a cost to us as a news organization not airing untrue things".
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Fed cuts are coming. Whether it be in March or May, the labor market is softening, and quickly.
Be skeptical of the 3.7% unemployment rate the BLS released yesterday.
240K new jobs is the monthly average, November saw 199K.
Out of the 199K, ~30K were people returning from a
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Vivek and Trump join forces.
They met on Jan 16th, and Vivek made clear a number of his top priorities, including banning a CBDC.
Donald Trump's now on the same page.
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ROMNEY: The $96 billion Ukraine Israel aid package is the “Most important vote we will ever take as US Senators”
Wonder why we're $34+ trillion dollars in debt.
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Small banks hold the paper on roughly 70-80% of CRE loans, lent with floating rates. This will cause a profound credit crunch in tertiary commercial real estate markets.
Ever play dominos?
#housingmarket
#realestate
#realestateinvesting
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The banking crisis isn't over.
The CRE Market is in free-fall, property prices for all sectors are falling, office in particular is down bigly.
US banks hold ~$3 tn in CRE loans on their books. Many of them have over-extended.
~700 US banks have surpassed the 2006 CRE loan
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Inflation could begin to spike next year as global shipping routes continue to be attacked.
The Fed sees inflation falling, thanks in large part to container shipping rates returning to pre-pandemic levels. But, over the last two weeks...
The Red Sea is all but closed, which
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Corporate bankruptcy filings spiked in 2023, but that was only the prelude to what we'll see this year.
Corporate loan maturities increase by 300% in 2024 vs last year.
$790 billion in corporate loans reset this year.
When these loans roll over, cost to service the debt will
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The housing market is still suffering from lack of supply, but there are signs that is starting to change.
The counties in color have more active listings today, than pre-pandemic. The counties greyed out have less.
Much of Texas has seen inventory normalize. Therefore home
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Biden administration has been holding top level meetings over the last week with Treasury, the Fed, State Department, and the Pentagon, gaming out how to break the law with as little damage as possible.
As Ukraine military aid runs out on Dec. 30, and congress refused to cut a
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Here is Janet Yellen saying it's illegal to seize the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets.
Well that was *before* the Biden administration realized congress would stop funding the Ukraine war.
Biden is deciding right now if he should sign off on taking the money now that
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Financial media celebrating rising apartment supply. I've been reading how good it is that renters can now re-negotiate their lease agreements with some leverage.
Is that what people want though, cheaper apartments?
Or maybe... they want to buy a house!
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U.S. Economic Uncertainty Index reaches highest level since 2020.
This tends to become volatile with war, cyberattack, terror attack, supply disruption, gulf tensions, political crisis...
Well we're leaving 2023 with two hot wars raging, Yemen's Houthi's mobilizing to enter the
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What a fool.
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Vivek Ramaswamy would be a great chief of staff for DT.
Act as the operations manager to get everything done.
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Congress is about to vote on amendment to require a warrant for all FISA surveillance against US citizens.
Yesterday, Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, argues against it. Saying requiring a warrant is not the best way to protect American's personal privacy.
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Perfect timing. 100% fatality rate, sure sounds scary enough to convince the masses of just about anything.
New lab created disease out of China (Disease X) has a 100% fatality rate in humanized mice by infecting the nervous system.
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Only 26 days left of US crude oil supply (excl. SPR), and reserves now at 40 year low.
In last ditch effort to shore up oil supply before US 2024 election, Biden administration reportedly cutting a deal with Venezuela to lift oil sanctions.
Only requirement of the deal is for
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The U.S. govt is spending over $1 trillion a year to service it's debt, just on interest alone.
Up ~50% since 2020.
That's over 20% of annual tax revenues.
If rates stay around these levels, the CBO estimates that number could rise to as high as 50% in the next 30 years.
How
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As mortgage rates hit 8% for the first time in ~20 years, homebuyers have checked out.
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) fell again in September, to 64.5.
According to the index, Homebuyers feel this is now the worst time *ever* to buy a house.
With only 16%
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A default cycle has started. 2023 has been only a prelude to what's in store.
There is a wall of floating rate high yield loans maturing in the next three years.
If rates stay higher for longer, and banks don't loosen lending standards, they'll be a wave of defaults,
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China continues to divest from the United States.
US Treasury holdings reach lowest level in 14 years.
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China holdings of US Treasuries reaches new decade low.
This is happening while the US continues to borrow well above it's means, announcing another 1.5Tn in borrowing for the next two quarters.
Without big buyers like China, and the Fed (who stopped backstopping the treasury
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Did you know? Weekly flow of money:
The largest weekly outflow from cash *ever recorded*, occurred this week ($108.9 billion). Pulling their cash from money market funds.
This week also saw the 5th largest inflow to US Treasuries.
Making this the 36th straight week of Treasury
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Tighter lending standards have continued to slow economic activity.
It starts with banks writing less loans, the loans they do write have stricter terms and higher interest rates.
Which causes businesses to stop growing.
The businesses who have maturing loans are forced to
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The Fed raised the overnight rate significantly faster and higher this time around than in 07.
It's been ~1.5 years since the Fed's tightening campaign began.
People debated for ~2 years during the run-up to the GFC if the Fed could engineer soft landing.
The main difference
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Corporate profits pre-tax is up an astonishing 50%.
Jumping from $2.4 tn pre-lockdown to $3.6 tn post-lockdown.
Which is odd, as you'd assume if we're heading into a recession you'd see this beginning to fall.
Likewise one would assume with all of the inflation we've been
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Financial conditions loosened considerably last week.
Toping it off was Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, where he said:
"Policy is at a restrictive level, holding the economy back."
That statement, which he said multiple times in multiple ways, was all the market needed to
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McDonalds launches an almost full autonomous restaurant.
Get ready for this to be the new normal in the next decade. Fast food restaurants with almost zero employees, run by robots and AI.
The 4th industrial revolution.
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All the data coming into Snapforce shows the 150 basis point drop in mortgage rates has spurred more sellers, but *not* more buyers.
At least not yet.
Active listings just hit a 3 year high, but still short 300k homes before reaching 2019 levels.
Mortgage demand plummets
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Senator
@MarshaBlackburn
's keeping the pressure on Dick (
@DickDurbin
), over on the Senate Judiciary committee. Formally requesting they subpoena Epstein's official flight logs and a copy of his "little black book".
Both of which are in FBI custody, it's been almost 4 years since
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Nationally, home prices are up 1% year over year, but locally cracks are forming.
For example take Texas:
Home prices in 55 out of the 243 counties are now down > 10%.
While 205 out of the 243 counties are negative YOY (zillow home value index).
Austin is now down ~13%,
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The US government's annual deficit ballooned to $1.7 trillion for 2023 (the gap between spending and revenue).
*But* the number is actually much larger, and was masked by the White House due to an odd accounting quirk they implemented around the student debt relief program.
The
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Everyone sick of watching the slow trickle of Epstein documents.
Here is the full Unsealed Jeffrey Epstein files.
View in full here:
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#SEC
to approve new rule that all shadow
#banks
must report any "extraordinary losses and margin events" no later than 3 days from today.
We have yet to see any cracks in private credit market, get ready, they're coming.
#bankcrisis
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Too much US govt debt, too few investors willing to buy that debt (the Fed's out, China now net seller).
Has formed the largest treasury bond bear market on record, going back 236 years.
Treasuries now extremely cheap, down ~10% YTD, and ~25% peak to trough.
Could be shaping
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Higher for longer appears to be sinking in.
In a new Goldman Sachs note titled "Higher for Longer and the 2024 Housing Outlook", they update their mortgage rate forecast.
Like most investment banks, they were expecting to see lower rates by the end of 2024.
Now they forecast
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JP Morgan's Michael Cembalest, a top strategist, released his top 10 2024 "shock" predictions.
Number 3 on the list is Joe Biden drops out of the presidential race, citing health concerns.
Here's the full prediction:
"President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday
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Both parties are complicit, they can fix this in one day. Change the law so border patrol is required to deny entry to any illegal crossing.
The same way the airport works, you can't enter the terminal without a ticket and identification, if you don't have it, you're denied
Since August, there are officially more arriving each month than there are children being born to American mothers.
And these are just the official encounters -- we don't know how many avoided detection.
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Homebuyer affordability now at the lowest level in over 30 years.
For the first time in history homeowner's median monthly payment will soon exceed $3,000.
The combination of high mortgage rates and low inventory has kept prices stable.
Resulting in one of the slowest
#housing
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WTI Crude has fallen from $93 down to $75 bbl in the past month.
Now would be a good time for the Biden Administration to begin refilling the SPR. Which is sitting at 40 year lows.
Considering war is on our doorstep, seems like a good idea to cover our bases.
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Always pushing a narrative, an agenda.
Q: "Are you saying that climate change amplified the cost of human error [during Maui wildfires]?"
HAWAII GOV. GREEN: "Yes, it did."
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Javier Milei, Argentina's new anarcho capitalist president, rejects invitation to join BRICS.
Meanwhile the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Iran have officially become the newest members of BRICS.
The expanding economic bloc represents 29% of global GDP, 43% of global
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First the E.U., now California are making it harder for their citizens to access information online without the government intervening in the process.
What is this parental control shit by governments? Get your foot off our necks.
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You don't need a border deal, reinstitute "Remain in Mexico" policy and the flow immediately slows.
Yes a new bill with immediate deportation for all illegal crossings codified into law would be great, that's the ultimate solution, but won't happen with this congress.
In the
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Watch for small business credit crunch to = higher unemployment.
Banks willingness to lend has been falling since July 2021.
The results of the next SLOOS survey will be watched closely by FOMC members, results they will have *before* the next meeting.
If it turns out that
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Bank of America's September Fund Manager Survey released:
Investors have strong conviction Fed will cut rates.
69% answered in the affirmative to lower short term rates (highest since 2008).
At the same time those same investors expect higher inflation in coming months
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De-banking is real, it's a big problem in Australia.
Some banks automatically flag accounts for closure if they see any crypto related transfers.
SNL did a segment mocking Trump for using the word de-bank:
"Trump introduced an interesting new term: de-banking. I don't know what the hell de-bank even means."
This is what happens when you live in your own echo chamber.
Not one SNL writer or audience member realized that
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Get ready for Blackouts and Brownouts across major U.S. population centers over the next 5 years.
Founder of One River Asset Management, Eric Peters says about LLM's large language models used by big tech to teach their AI's:
"We don’t currently have the infrastructure to
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JP Morgan's 9th prediction for 2024, power outages to hit major US cities.
A bit odd, as we keep hearing this narrative pop up. People also point to President Obama's movie, Leave the World Behind, which also includes blackouts and power outages.
Here's the full prediction:
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US job openings/unemployed may be peaking.
The Fed will stop tightening as soon as they identify the labor market softening.
As once it starts, it's something that can quickly get out of control. Going from a softening labor market to outright breaking it is a real possibility.
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Watch crucial SLOOS report released this week. We've seen banks tighten credit availability... and spreads now rising.
The Fed has already seen the results of the SLOOS survey, very important report for the cycle we're in.
As banks tightening lending standards can have the
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Hedge fund managers flip bullish on interest rates.
In BofA's November Fund Manager Survey:
1. 74% predict soft or no landing
2. 76% say Fed is done hiking
3. 80% expecting lower short term rates
4. 61% expecting lower bond yields next year (below chart)
5. Only 6% say higher
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#Liquidity
drain started 2 weeks ago, so far -$170 billion, just now beginning to work it's way through the system in higher rates. Over the next few months another $1 trillion will be drained from the system. How much higher will
#mortgage
rates go..? Watch last video for more.
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Spending like it's 2020, yet there's no pandemic... just a shitty economy.
U.S. budget deficit for December hit $129.4 billion.
That means U.S. spent $129.4 billion more than we earned in a single month.
In 2023, the U.S. spent $6.13 trillion and total revenue was $4.44
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Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist, is primary donor behind 'Free Speech for People' (ironic name). The group working behind the scenes to bring many of these ballot lawsuits to disqualify Donald Trump.
The President of Free Speech for People,
@JohnBonifaz
, still has a pinned
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#Lending
standards have never tightened this much without leading to
#recession
(or happening along side one). What you see in the below chart is showing the 2022 Q4 results of the Fed's SLOOS survey, *before* the banks liquidity dried up. Can't wait to see survey results May
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The CIA has been training many of the actors we're now fighting in the middle east. Including Hamas, and the Taliban. Teaching them "tricks of the trade" for years.
Legendary investigative journalist
@GeorgeKnapp
broke this story years ago, exposing the US govt's role in
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A wall of corporate debt maturities is coming. It began this year, hence the rise in corporate bankruptcies we see (highest since 08).
However, what we've seen thus far is just a prelude to what's coming in 2024 - 2028.
The problem is most corporate loans have floating rates,
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Why is nobody reporting on this? TING sensors are setup on electrical devices across Maui, showing a large electrical malfunction occurred on Aug 7th.
TING: designed to smartly identify unique signals generated by tiny electrical arcs.
Google Maui TING sensor data, you get one
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Ever wonder how 15,000 migrants from all over the world wind up at the same southern border crossing point at virtually the same time...
Then the next day it happens again...
NGO's funded by the UN and other private organizations are facilitating this.
Does this look like search and rescue to you?
Spanish journalist Rubén Pulido exposes how NGO groups such as Open Arms work with immigrant smugglers.
NGO ships go to Libyan coastlines then picks up illegal immigrants back to Italy or Spain.
These NGOs are funded by the state.
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Here we go, betting markets now predict a rate cut at every FOMC meeting in 2024 beginning in May.
That would be six 25 bp cuts, lowering the night rate to 4%.
BofA predicts 100 bp of cuts for 2024, "The exact timing & speed of rate cuts are uncertain; our economists expect
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