Is the stock market dangerously overvalued? The Shiller CAPE seems to say "yes" – it's higher now than 91% of the time in the last 150 years. The metric might be broken. Changes in accounting, the rise of tech, and buybacks are distorting the signal. https://t.co/H69hzbdiue

Gold's recent rally has everyone talking "safe haven." But its track record is spotty. Remember 2022? Inflation soared, and gold tanked. Why? It's not an inflation hedge; it's a real interest rate hedge. Knowing the difference is key. https://t.co/ZdYMAAgukR #Gold #Investing

4/4 So what should investors watch instead? The Fed now focuses on the "near-term forward spread" — and it correctly predicted the soft landing the whole time. Full breakdown of what changed and what to monitor:

3/4 Turns out QE, Basel III regulations, and the "global savings glut" broke the signal. Long-term rates are artificially suppressed in ways they've never been before. Even Jerome Powell admits the traditional measure doesn't work anymore.

2/4 The curve stayed inverted longer than any time in recent history. Models screamed 65% recession probability. Everyone was preparing for the worst. The recession never came.

1/4 The yield curve inversion was supposed to be foolproof. 9 out of 9 recessions predicted since 1955. The most reliable indicator in economics. Then 2022-2024 happened. 🧵

Unlock the secrets of bank profitability. 🤫 This guide to bank income statements is a must-read for any serious investor. #finance #investing101 #bankstocks https://t.co/QaAulkTUx1

Will Waymo disrupt Uber/Lyft? Our moderate scenario hits $3.68 Billion in revenue by 2028, making them a formidable competitor. https://t.co/4iEzqruIst #Waymo #SelfDriving #TechAnalysis

3/3 Stop getting burned by misleading multiples. My latest article provides a framework for building a proper comps analysis for miners—and highlights the common traps to avoid. Get the guide here: https://t.co/6yN8cFAOmo #investing #valuation #mining #commodities #gold

2/3 A great multiple that actually works is Price-to-Net Asset Value (P/NAV). It's the only metric that forces you to compare market price to an intrinsic value that accounts for the entire mine life. For pre-production assets, the key is EV/Resource ($/oz). ⛏️

1/3Why is a gold miner trading at 5x EV/EBITDA vs other one trading at 10x EV/EBITDA often a value trap? 📉 Because standard multiples are blind to the most important risk in mining: depletion. A cheap earnings multiple today can mean no earnings at all tomorrow

4/4 This isn't a stock tip. It’s a reusable method for analyzing the entire mining sector. Read the full article here: https://t.co/lxmvkERLz3 #investing #mining #valuation #commodities #equityresearch #gold #copper

3/4 My new article provides a 5-step framework for building a simple Net Asset Value (NAV) model from the ground up. It's a methodical guide to turn a mine plan into a valuation, focusing on the inputs that matter most: price, grade, and All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC).

2/4 The key is to separate the geology from the operations. You have to value two distinct things: The quality of the rock (grade, tonnes) The efficiency of the factory that extracts it (costs, recovery) Understanding this split is the foundation of rigorous analysis.

1/4 Miners sell a simple product—metal—at a price they don't control. So why are their stocks so notoriously volatile and difficult to value? 🤔 The paradox comes down to isolating the two core drivers that are unique to the industry.

5/5 Practical toolkit: track NIM vs. deposit cost, deposit beta/mix, LDR, CET1, and ROTCE. Full post:

4/5 Equity is the scarce fuel. CET1 + RWA set the speed limit. Value follows ROTCE vs. cost of equity and what’s retained to grow book value.

3/5 EV/EBITDA fails for banks: EV adds “debt” that’s actually inventory, and EBITDA strips out interest—the core input cost. Wrong denominator, wrong numerator.

2/5 Deposits are the flour. Banks “buy” funding at 1–2%, “sell” loans at higher rates, and the spread pays for everything. Interest isn’t below the line—it is the line.

1/5 If you value JPM like Ford, you’re baking bread with a tire gauge. In banks, “debt” (deposits) is raw material—not financing. Here’s why that flips valuation on its head.