Ayush
@polanaly
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India🇮🇳 Constitution 🚩 social justice 🚩
Ballia, India
Joined September 2022
BJP has lost all the 5 tribal reserved constituencies of Jharkhand. It had won 3 of them in 2019, when big tribal faces like babulal marandi and madhu koda family were not part of BJP. Jailing Hemant Soren has backfired badly,which could not be neutralized by poaching any leader.
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Therefore, the PK theory of BJP gaining seats in East and South to cover the losses of North and west has gone to the dogs. As east and south, combined have delivered a net loss of 2 seats to BJP, rather than any gain. .
Similarly, BJP did not gain any seats in East, either. It gained 12 seats in odisha, but they were neutralized by the loss of 6 seats in bengal, 5 seats in bihar and 3 seats in jharkhand. So, it was an overall loss of two seats in the east, rather than any gain.
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Similarly, BJP did not gain any seats in East, either. It gained 12 seats in odisha, but they were neutralized by the loss of 6 seats in bengal, 5 seats in bihar and 3 seats in jharkhand. So, it was an overall loss of two seats in the east, rather than any gain.
BJP did not gain seats in South. It gained 4 in telangana, 3 in Andhra and one in kerala, but it was neutralized by loss of 8 seats in karnataka. So, the perception that BJP has gained in South is only true in terms of vote share and not in terms of seats.
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BJP did not gain seats in South. It gained 4 in telangana, 3 in Andhra and one in kerala, but it was neutralized by loss of 8 seats in karnataka. So, the perception that BJP has gained in South is only true in terms of vote share and not in terms of seats.
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UP + Bihar = 120 seats. Among them:-.In 2014, BJP contested 108, won 93.In 2019, BJP contested 95, won 79.In 2024, BJP contested 92, won 45.Cont. decline in contested seats= lack of confidence. Cont. decline in strike rate= people's rejection.
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And the trend continues. The vote share lead of NDA over SP+ in UP has reduced to 0.2%. Vote share of alliances in UP in 2024:-.NDA 43.7%.SP+43.5%.This trend is being seen since 2014, see the below quoted tweet. It may likely continue in 2027 assembly elections with NDA trail.
Vote percentage lead of NDA over SP + in UP:-.2014 - 21.3%.2017 - 13.3%.2019 - 11.9%.2022 - 7.2 %.Over the years, SP+ has been closing the gap with NDA. Though very difficult, but let's still hope that the streak continues and the gap further narrows in 2024.
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SP🥺🥺 dream result. Thank you UP. Sapne me bhi nhi sochi thi itni toh. 😅😅.
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total 22 seat gain. In rest of the states. numbers might be constant. So, BJP = 303-16+22= 309. Agencies ke saath saath mera number bhi compare kr lena parso ab😝😝😝.
Agar 2019 se compare karu BJP alone ko. To mere according BJP may lose:-.5 seat Raj, 1 seat HR, 3 seat BR, 3 seat KA, 2 seat MH and 2 seat MP. Mtlb total 16 seats loss. It may gain. 10 seat bengal, 5 seat odisha, 4 seat telangana, 2 seat andhra and 1 seat assam. mtlb.
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Agar 2019 se compare karu BJP alone ko. To mere according BJP may lose:-.5 seat Raj, 1 seat HR, 3 seat BR, 3 seat KA, 2 seat MH and 2 seat MP. Mtlb total 16 seats loss. It may gain. 10 seat bengal, 5 seat odisha, 4 seat telangana, 2 seat andhra and 1 seat assam. mtlb.
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Wild guess on seats of bihar🙂 for 2024 lok sabha:-.BJP:- 14.JD{U}:- 13.LJP{RV}:- 5.RJD:- 4{ Pataliputra, Saran, Buxar, Jahanabad}.INC:- 2{ Kishanganj, Katihar}.CPI{ML(L)}:- 1{ Karakat}.HAM{S}:- 1.VIP,CPI,CPI{M} and RLM:- 0.Compare this with results on 4th june 😄😄.
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Read budaun instead of firozabad.
Wild guess on all UP seats in the middle of elections 🙂:-.BJP - 63.SP - 12 ( Kairana moradabad rampur sambhal firozabad mainpuri kannauj kaushambi ambedkar nagar lalganj azamgarh ghosi).RLD - 2.AD(S) - 2.INC - 1 ( Raebareli).BSP and SBSP - 0.Compare this on 4th june 😅😅🙌🙌.
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Wild guess on all UP seats in the middle of elections 🙂:-.BJP - 63.SP - 12 ( Kairana moradabad rampur sambhal firozabad mainpuri kannauj kaushambi ambedkar nagar lalganj azamgarh ghosi).RLD - 2.AD(S) - 2.INC - 1 ( Raebareli).BSP and SBSP - 0.Compare this on 4th june 😅😅🙌🙌.
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Approx support for SP in various demographics of UP:-.Forward Caste:- 5%.Jatavs:- 10%.EBC:- 15%.Non jatav SC:- 30%.Upper OBC (non yadav):- 40%.Yadav:- 75%.Muslim:- 80%.
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RT @poetbadri: why low turnout.1. no narrative in this election.2.perception is that there is no challange for modi ji and bjp. confidence….
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Approx support for BJP in various demographics of UP:-.Muslims:- 5%.Yadavs:- 15%.Jatavs:- 20%.Upper obc(non Y):- 40%.Non jatav SC :- 50%.EBC :- 65%.Forward Caste:- 85%.
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RT @LaljiVermaSP: समाजवादी सरकार का काम आज भी बोलता है। .सुरेश रैना जी भी श्री अखिलेश यादव जी के कामों की तारीफ कर रहे हैं।.#ModiTohGayo .#….
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Wild guess on seats in UP after first phase voting:-.Saharanpur - BJP.Kairana - SP.Muzaffarnagar- BJP.Nagina - BJP.Bijnor - RLD.Moradabad - SP.Rampur - SP.Pilibhit - BJP.Note :- Just an estimate. I did not survey on ground 😅.
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