Peter Donaghy
@peterdonaghy
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Accountant and data analyst @peterdonaghy @mastodon .ie @peterdonaghy .bsky.social 🇺🇦
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Last Seen Profiles
🚨 WOW 🚨
Northern Ireland administered 20,847 first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine yesterday, smashing the previous daily record of 11,866. That's 1.11% of the population *in a single day*
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I was suddenly struck by the urge to rank all 21 Northern Ireland Secretaries of State from best to worst
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The key factor behind areas badly hit by Northern Ireland's 2nd COVID-19 wave isn't religion, but poverty. Only 1 of NI's 40 least deprived postcode areas has over 400 weekly cases per 100k, ¼ of the most deprived 40 areas do.
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Copernicus Sentinel imagery of Lough Neagh taken last week. I don't think it's supposed to look like this?
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Over the last 7 days 0.9% of the population of Ireland have tested positive for COVID-19. Not only is this the highest in the world as of now, it's one of the highest rates ever reported. Excluding microstates, only one country (Belgium) has ever reported more cases per capita.
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Zero ventilated COVID-19 patients in ICU in Northern Ireland for the first time since the 9th of July last year.
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@AnnaGHughes
Uh, so are the maids a-milking, ladies dancing, lords a-leaping, pipers piping and drummers drumming somehow birds also?
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The data for Northern Ireland clearly shows the decoupling between COVID-19 case numbers and hospitalisations over the last few weeks. Case numbers are now far higher than the Winter 20/21 peak, whilst the number of COVID patients in hospital is at its lowest since July.
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I don't think it's appreciated how the number of the number of COVID-19 hospital patients in the UK has fallen relative to the number of cases. You would expect ~3,000 inpatients at this point of a "normal" wave, but there are fewer than 1,000 and the ratio is still falling.
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Home Secretary:
"I've likened the Orange Order to Hamas by mistake"
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The nationalist vote has increased since 1998.
A gentle reminder, the nationalist vote has not increased since 1998.
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As the prophecy foretold
We have a fish & chip shop in Cowley & one near St Andrew’s Park, but we don’t in Uxbridge Town Centre.
That’s why I’m launching a campaign to get us a fish & chip shop in Uxbridge Town Centre, but I need your support to do it.
Sign up 👇
🐟 🍟
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Therefore it seems likely that the apparent jump in CPI in Northern Ireland in April 2022 was not caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol, but by Little Mix. Specifically, the concerts at the SSE Arena, which caused two hotels to increase their prices.
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I think I've identified a possible cause for the apparent jump in inflation in Northern Ireland compared with Great Britain in April 2022. The ONS have broken out the drivers behind this, with "Restaurants and hotels" responsible for much of the difference.
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@visitestonia
This is so nice. Estonia going at the top of the list of places to go to when this is all over.
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The All-Island Strategic Rail Review is out and initial thoughts are that this is ⓋⒺⓇⓎ ⓃⒾⒸⒺ
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All of this goes to demonstrate the potential pitfalls of inferring politically sensitive conclusions from very very small volumes of data (Shout Out to My Extrapolation).
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@jtheory
@AnnaGHughes
Wait, are the gifts cumulative? So in total my true love gives me 12 partridges, 12 pear trees, 22 turtledoves, 30 french hens, 40 golden rings, 36 calling birds, 42 geese a-laying/swans a-swimming, 40 maids a-milking, 36 ladies dancing, 30 lords, 22 pipers and 12 drummers?
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The most dramatic decoupling is seen in the number of COVID ICU inpatients; several weeks into a surge in cases, the number of patients in mechanical ventilation beds has increased only slightly.
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@MichaelPDeacon
By Tuesday the entire cabinet will be furiously defending his January sightseeing trip to Hubei province
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As the parent of a child in P7, it would be completely unfathomable and outrageous if Peter Weir remains in post in the wake of this fiasco.
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Following
@SJAMcBride
's article in the News Letter, I wrote about how grocery prices have changed since 2020. Despite the new barriers to trade across the Irish Sea, there is no evidence yet of an increase in the price of groceries in Northern Ireland.
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Yesterday was the fifth consecutive day in Northern Ireland with zero COVID-19 hospital admissions. There were 3 admissions over the last week, which is the lowest in any seven day period since the 4th of March 2020.
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Northern Ireland in 2021 is like being in a medieval village where some of the elders have set the winter grain store on fire, watching them scream blame at everyone who told them it was a silly idea. As the flames leap higher, the sheriff proclaims the fire simply doesn't exist.
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There were zero COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital in Northern Ireland on Sunday the 2nd of May. The last day with zero admissions was the 2nd of September, 246 days ago. Zero persons over the age of 70 have been admitted to hospital with COVID this month so far.
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Catastrophizing, or hand-waving away evidence because it's good news, could lead to disillusionment with science and could undermine the response to future pandemics and climate change. The current COVID wave won't be as severe as before, but one day there might really be a wolf.
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In North Antrim, Patricia O’Lynn of the Alliance Party unseated Mervyn Storey of the DUP on the last count by 288 votes. 725 of the 2,914 TUV votes available to be distributed on the last count didn't transfer to the DUP, which ended up costing the DUP the seat.
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@simplicio823
@Popehat
@kassy
yeah if there's two things the Irish can't stand, it's people enjoying themselves and the projection of soft power
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With the Republic of Ireland expected to run a budget surplus of €6.2bn in 2023, the state of public finances north and south of the border will continue to diverge. The UK government are now paying 4.4% to borrow for 10 years, with the Irish government only paying 2.9%.
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Here we go, my Northern Ireland 2023 local election projections. In summary:
- Sinn Féin to become the largest party in local government
- Alliance and the TUV to make gains
- Poor results expected for the UUP & SDLP
- The DUP to get similar results as they did in 2019
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As far as I can tell, if there was a new EU law that the DUP wanted to veto coming into effect in Northern Ireland, the new Stormont Brake would work like this.
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I heard they were having a shindig in Stormont today, so here's the sort of thing they could discuss. In England 0.038% of people on waiting lists have been waiting over 2 years; the equivalent in NI is 38.5%, over a thousand times higher. One in 29 have been waiting over 5 years
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As of yesterday, 63.0% of the entire (not just adult) population of Wales had a first dose of a COVID vaccine, overtaking Israel (62.7%). If an independent country, it would be highest in the world for the % of the population vaccinated (excluding those with a population <100k).
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There were 15,489 COVID-19 vaccine doses registered in Northern Ireland yesterday; 5,630 first doses and 9,859 second doses. Among the people to receive a first dose yesterday were my wife and myself.
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The Alternative Arrangements Commission have proposed that there are no post Brexit checks on goods within 20 miles of the Irish border. The fact that most of Northern Ireland is within 20 miles of the border could be an issue there.
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So far, just over 50% of Northern Ireland care home residents, 75% of care home staff, and 18% of front line medical staff in Northern Ireland have been vaccinated against COVID-19. Legitimately world leading, and very good on data/transparency, too. Unambiguously good news.
And then Northern Ireland put out a statement here () which details their progress
They provide far more data than any other nation, and I believe they'll put out a similar release each week
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There were 7,329 COVID-19 first doses registered in Northern Ireland yesterday. This means that the majority of adults in Northern Ireland (50.01%) have now received at least one dose.
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Around 1 in 23 of the population of NI have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last 30 days, nearly 2½ times higher than the winter 20/21 peak and rising. Despite this, the number of COVID patients in ICU is lower than it was at any point during August 2021.
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I feel slightly sorry for any canvassers who call round my way. If anyone ever wants to discuss NI politics with me irl I transform instantly into Uncle Colm from Derry Girls.
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For the first time in NI, more people have received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine (102,701) than have tested positive for COVID-19 (92,782). Also a new record for most vaccinated in a day (11.3k, 0.6% of the population). At 0.6% per day, first doses completed by early May.
The number of people in Northern Ireland who have received their first dose of a covid vaccine has now passed 100 000. The precise number is 102701 - I make that to be approximately 5.5% of the population.
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Whilst there has been a 39% increase in the number of 7 day COVID-19 cases in Northern Ireland over the past week, there's been a substantial decline in the % share of over 80s among the new cases. Very encouraging sign that the vaccination programme is having an impact.
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Here's my attempt to extrapolate what the
#LE23
results would look like if the results were replicated at a Westminster election.
SF 10
DUP 5
Alliance 3
Sinn Féin would gain East L/Derry, Upper Bann and Foyle. Alliance would gain South and East Belfast.
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Another day of Danish COVID-19 data; 13,386 cases, slightly down from yesterday's record 13,558. The number of hospital patients is down (by one) to 553. Hospital patients as a % of 30 day cases is down to a new record low of 0.276% - completely unprecedented.
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And that's a new daily record for the number of first doses; 11,866, or 0.63% of the population. Now 6.08% of the population have received a first dose. The 1st phase will be complete when 9.2% of the population have received a first dose; at current rates this will be next week.
LATEST
#COVID19
VACCINE UPDATE:
133,831 vaccines have been administered, of which 19,264 were second doses.
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I've tweeted these charts nearly day for the last few months; I'll just be updating them every so often from now on.
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@_katiestebbins_
@GossiTheDog
It makes Kiss from a Rose all the more poignant now that we know the song's tragic back story
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One more attempt to convince people that things really are different this time with COVID, focusing on London, several weeks into an Omicron wave. First, the bad news, which is the recent increase in COVID admissions. The situation isn't as bad as it looks, because... 🧵
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There were *29,957* new COVID-19 vaccine doses registered in Northern Ireland yesterday (19,770 first doses and 10,187 second doses), a new daily record. More than 1 in 50 (2.06%) of the adult population received a vaccine dose in a single day.
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@jtheory
@AnnaGHughes
I had assumed that each day brings only incremental gifts. On the 12th day of Christmas my true love has still brought me a partridge and a pear tree, even if it was brought on the 1st day. And if I really am getting 12 partridges couldn't they share the same pear tree?
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The new NI hospital waiting times data is out today, and it's now possible to compare the numbers waiting over 2 years with GB. Just over a third on NI waiting lists have been waiting over 2 years, by contrast in England virtually nobody waits more than 2 years.
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@InternetHippo
Modern piracy should be rebranded as "marine terrorism"; the word "pirate" should only hold connotations of "arrrr", "shiver me timbers", "pieces of eight" and so forth
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After mapping independent candidates to Nationalist, Unionist or Other, I have the combined Nationalist vote at
#LE23
to be 42.4% (if you included PBP this would rise to 43.5%). The Unionist vote has fallen by nearly 10 percentage points in 6 years, from 49.1% in 2017 to 39.35%.
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The simplest way to compare the economies of Northern Ireland and the Republic is to look at average disposable income (i.e. income after tax). Dublin and Limerick have the highest incomes on the island, with Derry and Donegal having the lowest.
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Only 9 of 56 people admitted to hospital in Northern Ireland with COVID on Sunday were aged 80 or over - 16%, the lowest rate in 107 days. Still too early to conclude it's vaccine driven, but with over 60% of over 80s vaccinated it joins a growing pile of encouraging data points.
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If it was a separate country, Northern Ireland would rank third in the world for COVID-19 cases per capita over the last 7 days behind Georgia and Kosovo. One in 46 of the population has tested positive for COVID in the last 30 days, behind only Georgia, Cuba and Fiji.
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With 3.15m first COVID-19 vaccine first doses administered, the Republic of Ireland has overtaken Northern Ireland in terms of the % of the adult population having received at least one dose.
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Over a million people have now received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine in Northern Ireland. That's 69% of all adults.
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With numerous pubs in Northern Ireland charging north of £6 for a pint now, it's striking how much more pints cost locally compared with Great Britain. Prices on a par or slightly higher than London; a pint of lager in Northern Ireland typically costs double the price in Wales.
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Ahead of industrial action in schools in NI this week, a reminder of the scandalous disparity in teachers' pay across the UK and Ireland. Salaries have fallen by 16% in real terms over the last 4 years; new teachers in Scotland and the Republic earn around 60% more.
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There were 13,558 COVID-19 cases reported in Denmark today, a record high. However, the number of patients in hospital fell to 554, from 581 the previous day. Inpatients as a % of 30 day cases has fallen to 0.29%, the lowest I've seen anywhere since the start of the pandemic.
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Something I noticed in the PISA 2022 data - a variable with a huge impact on academic performance is the number of books at home. Pupils from a working class background with lots of books at home significantly outperformed middle class pupils that had few or no books.
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If the Secretary of State ploughs ahead with holding a new Assembly election without reform to remove the DUP veto on forming an Executive, Sinn Féin, SDLP and Alliance should boycott the poll. Enough is enough.
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With deaths data for Northern Ireland for 2020 complete, excess deaths for the year (deaths as a % of previous 5 year avg) were the highest since the 1918 flu pandemic. In England & Wales 2020 excess deaths (15.7%) were comparable with 1940, the worst year of the Blitz (16.4%).
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Of the 20,847 to receive a first vaccine dose yesterday, 0.0096% (2) were my parents
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Another interesting COVID-19 stat today - of the 7,752 people tested for COVID-19 in Northern Ireland on Tuesday, only 151 (1.95%) tested positive. That's the first time the daily positivity rate has been less than 2% since the 8th of September, 198 days ago.
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Looking at the number of people in intensive care in areas with a high prevalence of Omicron such as London, the recent disconnect between case numbers and patient numbers is obvious. This type of pattern is completely new.
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The release of today's NI trade statistics for 2021 allows for a comparison of trade growth between NI and GB since the Protocol was put in place. NI has outperformed GB for export growth across the board; with the Republic of Ireland, the wider EU, and the rest of the world.
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Couple of vaccine milestones today. It's very close, but as of yesterday, Northern Ireland has the highest % in the UK or Ireland of the adult population who have received both doses of a COVID-19 vaccine (32.6%).
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@SwiftOnSecurity
The "landline" is by far the most exciting app ever created. It's an urgent push notification to your whole house, with a 99% probability that someone is trying to scam you, and a 1% probability that your child has injured themselves at school and needs to be collected.
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With the announcement yesterday that ~10,000 people in Northern Ireland vaccinated against COVID-19, NI now has the world's largest % of the population to receive a vaccine so far*
NI 0.53%
Scotland 0.33%
Wales 0.25%
Russia 0.22%
Nebraska 0.21%
England 0.19%
*GB 1 day earlier
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It looks like the lower than expected daily COVID-19 vaccine first doses yesterday in NI have been offset by a big increase today. This means an average of 12,996 per day on Friday and Saturday received a first vaccine dose, a new daily record 0.69% of the population. Nice.
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There were 17,263 COVID-19 vaccine doses registered in Northern Ireland yesterday; 10,258 first doses and 7,005 second doses. Looks like the SSE vaccination centre is making an impact already. First doses up to 51.0% of the adult population, second doses 9.1%.
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Heating oil customers in Northern Ireland are due to receive only £100 in heating support on the grounds that gas prices increased by a higher % than oil over the past year. This is not true; UK heating oil prices increased by 114% in the 12 months to July 2022, with gas up 96%.
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There were 22,027 COVID-19 vaccine doses registered in Northern Ireland yesterday; 6,948 first doses and 15,079 second doses (a new record day for second doses). More than 3 in 5 adults (60.3%) have received at least one dose, and more than 1 in 5 (20.5%) have received two doses.
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In 2020, Northern Ireland was very close (49.2%) to sourcing the majority of electricity consumed over a 12 month period from renewables for the first time. That's up from 8.4% in 2010.
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There were 13,595 first COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in Northern Ireland yesterday (0.94% of the adult population); the fifth consecutive day over 10,000. NI has pulled level with Scotland in terms of first doses per adult population.
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There were 17,124 COVID-19 vaccine doses registered in Northern Ireland yesterday, 8,471 first doses and 8,653 second doses. 48.4% of the adult population have had at least one dose, and 7.2% have had a second dose.
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The Devenish is definitely in South Belfast & Mid Down - 308 metres away from the West Belfast border at its closest point.
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Can't believe this needs to be said, but no, it isn't true that only majority Catholic areas are COVID-19 hotspots. The most recent positivity rate was over 14.5% in all council areas in Northern Ireland.
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There were 13,358 first COVID-19 vaccine doses registered in Northern Ireland yesterday, 0.92% of the adult population. More than 1 in 3 adults in NI have now received a first dose.
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From the latest NI hospital waiting time statistics, 37.7% of people on waiting lists have been waiting over 2 years. The equivalent figure in England is 0.016%, meaning that in NI you are 2,300 times more likely to wait over 2 years for treatment compared with England.
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It’s crazy how unequal spending on railways is across the UK. For every pound spent on railways per head in Northern Ireland, £10.88 is spent in London and £4.80 in Scotland.
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@OwenJones84
@PaulGosling1
Famously, everyone kept their lights on at night during the Blitz, so as not "to let the bombs win"
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If you've been following the Northern Ireland gerbil price saga over the last few months you may be interested to know that the average price of a small caged mammal in NI fell to £13.75 in July. That's the first time they've been cheaper than GB since last September.
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Since the Conservatives came to power, real terms capital spending on secondary schools has fallen by around a third, and spending on primary schools has fallen by more than half. Overall pupil numbers increased by 10% over this period.
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The decoupling between COVID-19 case numbers and hospitalisations in Northern Ireland continues. One in 15 people (6.6%) tested positive for COVID in NI in the last 30 days, but inpatient numbers have fallen. Only 22 COVID patients in mechanical ventilation, fewer than late July.
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There are around 90,000 65-69 year olds in Northern Ireland, so 56% of the population in this age group have received a first vaccine dose or have an appointment booked, less than 3 days after the booking system went online
UPDATE: Over 50,000 people have now booked their vaccination appointments online. Issues with authentication and confirmations both resolved Wednesday night.
Demand continues to be high but performance is acceptable.
Please be patient, keep trying.
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