Pat Leslie
@pat__leslie
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Political Scientist at ANU. I study parliamentary and judicial behaviour, representation, and research methods.
ANU, Canberra
Joined August 2014
Do the teals vote like a party in the House of Representatives? I've written a short analysis here: https://t.co/RxG9KhRkaG
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🚨#newresearcharticle by Chris Hanretty, Vesa Koskimaa and #ANUExpert Pat Leslie @pat__leslie explores how parliamentary debate declines as parliamentarians age. Find more in the #JournalofPolitics by @ChicagoJournals
https://t.co/skbbBs4czT
journals.uchicago.edu
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📢 Research by #ANUExperts Dr. Patrick Leslie @pat__leslie & Prof. Keith Dowding reveals the rise of complex 'monster acts' in Australian legislation since the 1980s. #Legislation #PublicPolicy #Governance #Australia Lecture here:
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The @FinancialReview reported on research led by #ANUExpert Dr Patrick Leslie @pat__leslie about voting percentages. Read more:
afr.com
Analysis of voting records shows the teals have carved out a political space to the right of the Greens. But some teals are greener than others.
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Who's the most liberal or conservative cardinal? It's a hard question to answer, but thanks to https://t.co/PvtbKUi3Ra, I was able to perform some ideal point estimation. The procedure was relatively simple. I took all positions tracked and coded them as 3 if the cardinal was in
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The hero we need
Who's the most liberal or conservative cardinal? It's a hard question to answer, but thanks to https://t.co/PvtbKUi3Ra, I was able to perform some ideal point estimation. The procedure was relatively simple. I took all positions tracked and coded them as 3 if the cardinal was in
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Our paper on the ”Class Ceiling in Politics” is now out in the APSR with open access. For an overview of the key findings see this thread!
Just published on APSR First View: "The Class Ceiling in Politics" by Olle Folke (@ollefolke) and Johanna Rickne (@johannarickne). https://t.co/MtCm4tQTvU
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this is such an odd* way to think about poll results. Unless you have access to unit record data (which typically you wouldn't as an aggregator) then you are ingesting model outputs because weighting *is* modelling. *silly
No, a feature of a good poll is to provide independent information about public opinion. A poll isn't a model. It's *data*.
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Now in a *model*, it's fine to build in some mean reversion. We do that in ours, in fact (polling averages are somewhat regressed to the previous election + a uniform swing). But these are supposed to be polls, not models.
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Great news! Our edited volume with @BjoernDressel @ANUCrawford and Alex Stroh @unibt *Informality and Courts* is now available for pre-order on @EdinburghUP's website. You can apply the code NEW30 for a 30% discount. Coming out this December! https://t.co/kLwUzeAydD
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This is such an Australian thing to do. Make an arbitrary rule that even your own government cannot keep when serving the King
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As someone who didn’t study law and doesn’t enjoy reading it, I find these trends deeply concerning…
New working paper! Legislation is Becoming (Measurably) Overcomplex (w. Prof Keith Dowding) https://t.co/djY9rDCtXg
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I've really enjoyed writing this paper. let us know if you have any comments or suggestions!
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We argue that overcomplexity presents real challenges to public officials and citizens, and it goes beyond the law being more difficult to understand than it once was. Democratic accountability is hard to achieve if the likely effect of new legislation is unknowable.
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Third, as a result, legislation is beginning to show some telltale signs of a complex system. One is unpredictability (legislation has the opposite of the intended effect). Another is feedback loops (one amendment begets another, and another, while the problem remains unsolved).
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Second, the complexity is driven by an excessive variance of instability (some acts have received well over 50 amendments in a single term), which also points to an underlying increase in interconnectedness and dependence in the body of legislation as a whole.
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First, we identify that system-level complexity as we measure it in Australian legislation begins to creep in toward the end of the 1970s (between 1977-1980 depending on your statistical threshold)...
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This (short) paper links legislative stability and complexity in Australia. We take a look at the concept of undue complexity in the law and what that might mean from a measurement perspective and for democratic accountability. We (hope to) add a few things...
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New working paper! Legislation is Becoming (Measurably) Overcomplex (w. Prof Keith Dowding) https://t.co/djY9rDCtXg
@politicsANU
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