Olga Onuch (Онух)
@oonuch
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Professor Comparative & Ukrainian Politics @OfficialUoM Democracy@War📚Zelensky Effect @IBIFUkraine Prev @HURI_Harvard @NuffieldCollege @politics_oxford @uoft
Joined June 2009
To celebrate the anniversary of the publication of The Zelensky Effect . Czytajcie. Efekt Zełenskiego. PO POLSKU!. @MieroszewskiPL
It’s coming… Nov 17!!! #TheZelenskyEffect “The compelling story of how Ukrainians save their nation”
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Not a dry eye in the house. @ZelenskyyUa gives one of his most powerful speeches this year and that says a lot. «Ми туть!» «we are here» #UkraineWillWin #2023UkraineWins
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I hate that I have to do this but it’s 63%. Zelensky has 63% approval. Press release coming soon!.
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“This is not a war of 2 armies this is a war of 2 worldviews…Barbarians who destroy the Museum of Hryhoriy Skovoroda and believe their rockets can destroy our philosophy. It annoys them, it’s unfamiliar to them, it scares them” @zelenskyy Victory over Nazism Day 🧵of video 1/3
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Cracks in Russian plan, military miscalculations, lacks support of RU people, low moral among RU soldiers, & resolute nature of Ukrainians = a protracted war. A pattern is unfolding. In my research (2014 book) I focus on what leads fall of regimes & there are some signals here.
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Imagine freeing your own mothers village from occupation! "Mom, I missed you so much!". The head of the Derhachy, Vyacheslav Zadorenko, met with his mother in a de-occupied village in the Kharkiv oblast! #StandWithUkriane #UkraineWillWin 🇺🇦#UkrainiansBraveByPassport
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Not “50 million going hungry because of the war in Ukraine.” Its “50 million people going hungry because of Russia’s blockade of grain export/Russia’s war on Ukraine”. There I fixed it 4 you. It’s actually “Russia’s war on the world” but I can see you’re not able to see that yet.
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.@ZelenskyyUa addresses “the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia and other indigenous peoples of Russia. Dagestanis do not have to die in a vile and disgraceful war of Russia. Chechens, Ingush, Ossetians, Circassians and any other peoples who came under the Russian flag.” 1/4
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Putin: “Bahmut is ours”. Zelensky: “I returned from the Donetsk region, from our Bakhmut fortress. I was there today to support our fighters, to present state awards, to express gratitude to them”. Putin keeps lying while Ukrainians resist, defend, & prove him wrong time & again
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Although some are giving up. Ukrainians do not have that luxury. Ukraine fights on. & if you haven’t understood it yet, Ukrainians won’t give up or give in.
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NYE speech #Zelensky demonstrates his strength as a leader. He talk about not HIS accomplishments but those of every single Ukrainian. “Everyone of us is the front” he says. #SlavaUkrainii #StandWithUkraine
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Ukrainians at it again! In Melitopol citizens continue resistance against occupation with a rally. They demand the “freedom of the mayor” following M. Ivan Fedorova capture yesterday. This war is not “winnable” 4 Putin not in way he planned - will face ongoing resistance 🧵1/n
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It’s hard to express how much this means to me my Ukrainian family in Poland. President @ZelenskyyUa, giving a speech to citizens in Poland, starting it off with glory to Ukraine glory to the heroes. Something that was unthinkable only a few years ago.
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I know I study #Ukrainians’ civic identity & what motivates their protest mobilization. & keep finding in my research that Ukrainians’ democratic duty & attachment to their state is unshakable. But this is remarkable: city of 100000 under siege sees a large protest #Melitopol.
Melitopol today: unarmed residents are protesting against the occupiers. Video: from Ukrainian groups
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“As of 12:30 local time in Ukraine #Lyman [in Donetsk oblast] is fully liberated, thank you to our army to those that serve and Glory to Ukraine.”@ZelenskyyUa announced.
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Ukrainians have friends everywhere they go. @ZelenskyyUa meeting @AndrzejDuda in Poland today. Smiles all around. Poland Stands with Ukraine. Video c/o president Volodymyr Zelensky’s telegram.
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Outside the Russian Embassy in London. The Ukrainian anthem on full blast.
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#Bucha isn’t a news story 2 me. It’s where my friends live. It’s where I sang “Vona” at midnight New Years. It’s where I got my favorite borshch recipe book. It’s where we laughed & hugged. Now it’s in ur news feed 4 the most awful reason #WarCrimes #StandWithUkraine #StopRussia.
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I am puzzled by political scientists unwillingness to accept that maybe the surveys are not wrong & that maybe, in fact, Russians did rally around the flag & moved in their willingness to back the war once it started. 🧵1/3.
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Some news⚡️.My Professorial title has been confirmed by @OfficialUoM as “Professor of Comparative & UKRAINIAN Politics” .making it the FIRST ever official Professorial title with “Ukrainian Politics” in the English speaking world. May there be many more!.1.
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Correcting bad takes on Amb. Zaluzhnyi & dozens of media request. 🧵of my analysis (I’m on record voiceing this in briefings in Whitehall/Wesrminster 3 weeks back). 1) Those who r surprised by Zaluzhnyi being in the fold don’t know full back story & haven’t been privy to info.
BREAKING @ZelenskyyUa named Zaluzhny Ukraine's Ambassador to Great Britain!.A surprise to those who didn’t understand Zelensky & Zaluzhny are on same team & that there’s an abundant trust btw them!.Wellcome! @urkemblondon & Mr Ambassador please come to @UoMPolitics @UoMNews!
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Ukrainian citizens in cities under occupation and siege continue to protest against Russian invasion aggression and occupation this is from #Melitopol #UkraineProtests #UkraineResistance #NonviolentResistance
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“Soon in Ukraine there will be two victory days. And someone else will not have even one left”@ZelenskyyUa addresses Ukrainians on May 9. 3/3
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Forced citizenship or they take your child. This is the life of Ukrainians under occupation. This is what Ukrainians are fighting for. This is why they do not support territorial concessions.
⚡ Mothers in hospitals in temporarily occupied Luhansk region are facing threats of having their newborns taken away unless either parent has Russian citizenship. According to ISW, these actions violate Article II(d) of the Genocide Convention.
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.@ZelenskyyUa addresses “the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia and other indigenous peoples of Russia. Dagestanis do not have to die in a vile and disgraceful war of Russia. Chechens, Ingush, Ossetians, Circassians and any other peoples who came under the Russian flag.” 2/4
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“At the Central Railway Station in Kyiv, the train "Kyiv-#Kherson" was symbolically marked as arrived.”. Video: Instagram/Залізна крамниця c/o @suspilne_news
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When reporting on Russia’s announcement of their blockade of grain shipments from Ukraine through the Black Sea please remember the following a🧵. 1. Instead of using language such as “halted” “deal” make sure you use language that explains that this is “Russia’s blockade” 1/n.
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“Millions of a Ukrainians fought against Nazism…And now we fight to rid our lands of a enemy…we always fight for ourselves. For our freedom our independence.” @ZelenskyyUa addresses Ukrainians on May 9. 2/3
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Please READ!! ‘The @ZelenskyyUa Effect: Why #Ukraine’s “Ze” is defeating #Russia’s “Z”’ our Reserach Based Op Ed with #HenryHale @ponarseurasia @IERES_GWU @UoMPolitics @uomsoss @OfficialUoM
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Incomprehensible. An army trying to repel a violent invader from a city x needs to be physically present in city x. There is no other way to do this. How on earth are they expected to push the invader out otherwise? It is as if people who write reports do not understand combat.
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.@ZelenskyyUa addresses “the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia and other indigenous peoples of Russia. Dagestanis do not have to die in a vile and disgraceful war of Russia. Chechens, Ingush, Ossetians, Circassians and any other peoples who came under the Russian flag.” 4/4
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When 70% of the targets that Russia hits are civilian you know that this is not a mistake this is strategy. They’re targeting ordinary people. I they believe that by doing so they will scare Ukrainians into submission but this only strengthens their resolve. Miscalculation 1001.
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Stop focusing on distractions. Instead focus on Russian war crimes. Epicenter was one of the locations hit in Kherson. A grocery superstore. My family shops in epicenter. Many Ordinary families shop in epicenter. 21 people killed in Kherson today.
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.@ZelenskyyUa addresses “the peoples of the Caucasus, Siberia and other indigenous peoples of Russia. Dagestanis do not have to die in a vile and disgraceful war of Russia. Chechens, Ingush, Ossetians, Circassians and any other peoples who came under the Russian flag.” 3/4
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“Russia’s calm acceptance of Finland & Sweden…has put the lie to the claim that Russia is on a hair trigger about Nato drawing any closer…time to acknowledge…Russia opposes Ukraine’s Nato membership only because it would obstruct Russia’s continued aggression against that.
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Don’t be duped!. Ukraine passed a law banning an entity masquerading as a religious org. (based out of Moscow) fully infiltrated by FSB (successor to KGB) & controlled by the Kremlin. And while Kremlin’s deep state infiltrates religious orgs in Russia, in Ukraine Christianity.
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Now that it has been announced by my department @UoMPolitics I am thrilled to announce that I have been promoted to FULL PROFESSOR.1/3
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Russian intel driving “new” strategy (take SE) is wrong & won’t result in “win” & strategic goal. There’s a reason why RU hasn’t been able 2 fully take Mariupol/most cities in Donbas after 2 months & it’s the same reason when hey tried & failed 2 take Mariupol in 2014/15 a🧵1/8.
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Disappointed by @ucu passing StopTheWar motion! It accepts 🇺🇦 subjugation to 🇷🇺 imperialism & war crimes. It is shocking 4 an academic union to not understand this & it is highly anti-intellectual. @DrJoGrady how can UCU say it defends rights when it sanctions this?! @ellieknott.
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Fun fact #Tchaikovsky’s family was #Ukrainian & came from Poltava! @smolska Their name was actually Chaika before it was Russified. His great grandfather Fyodor Chaika was a #ZaporozhzhianKozak! Thanks 2 history of colonialism, imperialism, & Russification u never knew that!.
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mayor of Kyiv @Vitaliy_Klychko corrects disinformation “In the evening, Russian Internet publications spread information with reference to me that Kyiv is allegedly surrounded and evacuation of people is impossible…Trust information only from official sources.”.@MarQs__.
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Who is @rustem_umerov you might be asking & how should his replacing @oleksiireznikov be interpreted? . “The Ministry needs new approaches &…formats of interaction with both army & society… Fall is a time to strengthen.” Said @ZelenskyyUa in his address. Small 🧵. 1.
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SHOCKING. 60% of Russians support new attack on Kyiv & 43% support bombing major cities in Ukraine. 60% support negotiations but only 25% support mobilization - hence not willing 2 pay cost of war. This survey is done by a brilliant team @Princeton @grigopop @isadesisto & others.
*What is the level of support in 🇷🇺 for different military strategies against 🇺🇦?* First, bombing major 🇺🇦 cities. ~43% of respondents say they wld support this strategy. This figure has been rising since late Aug/early Sep, which coincides w/ start of 🇺🇦 counteroffensive. 🧵 1/
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It’s coming… Nov 17!!! #TheZelenskyEffect “The compelling story of how Ukrainians save their nation”
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Absolutely. I study moments of mass mobilization. previous protests in Belarus were very different. This is indeed a critical juncture for protest mobilization in the country. 1) the protests are physicallly bigger (hard to see because they r dispersed geographically) but bigger.
#Belarus. Something has cracked. Unprecedented police brutality and violence was the last straw for many people. Thousands are on the Minsk streets right now, but also in other cities and towns. Many major plants announced strikes. Prominent public figures demand to stop violence.
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BREAKING @ZelenskyyUa named Zaluzhny Ukraine's Ambassador to Great Britain!.A surprise to those who didn’t understand Zelensky & Zaluzhny are on same team & that there’s an abundant trust btw them!.Wellcome! @urkemblondon & Mr Ambassador please come to @UoMPolitics @UoMNews!
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Sorry not amplifying voices of those shifting “analysis” on #Ukraine but who 4 years had an agenda belittling our research showing: civic ID strong, language not an issue, region not about ethnicity, right wing small if not insignificant actor, Zelensky is unifying figure.
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👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻This is exactly what I was talking about when I said you need different messages to different constituencies in Russia at today @BritishAcademy_ event with @LawDavF.
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We should understand how motivated reasoning works & the activation of affective identity. State TV propaganda has been focused on affective ID & tapped into underlying beliefs among Russians that Ukrainians although a brotherly nation is one lower in rank. 2/3.
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Ukraine is under attack. How can you help? You are not powerless! Use your privilege. 1) Call you MP/Senator/representative. 2) join/ help organize a peace protest. 3) donate to charity/NGO. Show Ukrainians you are with them #StandWithUkraine
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Please stop using the term “peacekeepers” to describe the foreign armies being sent to police civilians in #Kazakstan. Call them “foreign armies requested under the guise of being “peacekeepers” by Kazakhstan’s president with sole purpose to repress civilians” longer but true.
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An other young student dies in combat. A PhD student. This is yet one more reason why academics around the world should rally around Ukraine - as if you really needed an other reason. @ucu we are still waiting 4 u 2 publicly react 2 widespread concern of many of ur members.
Yevheniy Osiyevskyi was killed in action near Bakhmut. He was a journalist of "Kunsht" and "Spilne" media and a PhD student. Joined the army at the beginning of the big war. Rest in glory
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What a thrill to receive the first copy of #TheZelenskyEffect with the amazing @oxford_ukraine President Ruslan Pavlyshyn. Makes it even more special as I am visiting my alma mater @UniofOxford for a fantastic @ZOiS_Berlin @REESOxford @IWM_Vienna @OSGAOxford conference on Ukraine
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Some don’t understand that because of the @ucu motion passing there now are 🇺🇦 lecturers & students who may believe that their colleagues & teachers not only don’t understand their fight against Russia’s criminal war against Ukraine but don’t support it. It is traumatizing 👇.
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Lyudmila Petrushevskaya renowned 🇷🇺writer: “I’ve always written about my people…But now I don’t feel sorry for my people — invaders, thieves & rapists, murderers of children & destroyers of other people’s lives. I will never write about them or for them.”
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Instead of losing confidence in democracy as the best form of government, however, Ukrainian citizens have done the opposite, survey research from the MOBILISE Project reveals a staggering 35 percentage-point rise in Ukrainians' support for democracy over just three years. 3/4
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5) The post in London is a hugely important role. This is Ukraine KEY ally and the Ambassador in UK is key in coordinating military support for Ukraine with its allies. Having a former Army Commander will further help Ukraine and UK’s work on this.
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A kind reminder to my colleagues engaged in the “will Russia - won’t Russia” debate. Russia already has invaded & occupied parts of Ukraine. Russia regularly escalates violence and we regularly see regular Russian troop and hardware incursions into Ukrainian territory.
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The earnest and authentic reaction when this America veteran hears that he is meeting @Zelenskyy_Uaa and @ZelenskaUA is just so beautiful. Someone who clearly understands personally the sacrifices people make to defend democracy.
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& 1 that should submit 2 Russian demands. Humiliation of 1st weeks only further allowed 4 formation of collective beliefs about blame attribution. Once losses experienced instead of blaming themselves Russians find blame outside of their in-group & blame “lower” Ukrainians. 3/3.
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Tourist visa ban is not a student visa ban or a work visa ban or a ban on fellowship visas for scholars at risk. It is a tourist visa ban.
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10) Above all this shows - yet again - that Zaluzhnyi is a professional & patriot willing to serve his country. It reminds Ukraine’s adversary that you cannot shake Ukraine’s Unity & perseverance. That which divides is not as strong enough as that which unites Ukrainians.
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Make this @OfficialUoM press release viral.“Trump … echoed Kremlin talking points, by falsely claiming …Zelensky’s approval rating stands at a mere 4% … polling…puts his approval rating at 63% - making him the most popular politician in the country.”.
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Amazing scenes in Minsk and across the country in #BelarusProtest This one outside Pushkinska Metro in a Minsk
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This is what Russian state terrorism looks like. No one wants peace more than Ukrainians. But negotiating with a state that targets civilian residential buildings is not an option. If you want to see this war end #standwithUkraine.
Zaporizhzhia. Right now, residential areas where ordinary people and children live are being fired at. This must not become "just another day" in 🇺🇦 or anywhere else in the world. The world needs greater unity and determination to defeat Russian terror faster and protect lives.
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This has been such a saving grace for me over the last 1.5 years everywhere I turn in the UK I see Ukraine being supported and Ukraine being present. Ми тут!.
As a US New Englander traveling in the UK, it’s been striking to see how many 🇺🇦 flags are displayed in 🏴. This is Edinburgh, but they’re also in villages, by highways, on poles in sheep meadows . all over.
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2) Importantly tensions were blown up to be larger than they were. Not least, as reported in @washingtonpost some of the reports were part of a Russian disinformation campaign from 2022. Disagreements existed but not in way some interpreted.
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In Minsk women’s March on its way detentions are happening again. #Belarus #BelarusProtest
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9) Zaluzhnyi being appointed to this diplomatic post & gaining this experience can make him a future candidate for other major (!) international roles. Again we will watch this space. Mark my words this will be very useful for Ukraine! & will be a key stepping stone 4 Zaluzhnyi!.
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Yesterday President @ZelenskyyUa who is of Jewish decent, officially observed Ramadan joining Soldiers for Iftar at Birlik the Crimean Tatar Cultural Centre @MDzhemilev & Refat Chubarov where there too. The plight of Crimean Tatars is the plight of all 🇺🇦1/2
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Add on: whilst it is possible that in December the baseline support for war with Ukraine was very low (I think that is correct) it is equally possible that after it started, after perceptions of threat to Russians rose and after losses were experienced things changed.
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3) Zaluzhny is a patriot and is committed 2 being part of the team & Zelensky wants him in the fold, just in a different role. You might not agree what role but that is not up to you. Ukraine’s allies also want Zaluzhny in the fold. More on that to come.
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Earlier this week I was listening to someone who was saying that Ukrainians in the Donbas did not fight & oppose Russia aggression, invasion, & occupation in 2014. They did. Their story still needs to be properly written. But here is a reminder! Protests continued for months.
🇺🇦 Donetsk. 9 years ago, on March 5, 2014, around 10,000 citizens gathered on the central square to support the unity of Ukraine. Later, Russian forces managed to temporarily occupy the city but they will never manage to occupy its Ukrainian spirit. Photo: Anton Skyba
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This is why for the broad majority of Ukrainians negotiating focused on territorial concessions is not acceptable. These are torture chambers designed to hold and brutalize their family members.
“105 torture chambers were found in 8 Ukrainian regions after they were liberated from Russian occupiers,” Ukraine’s prosecutor general @AndriyKostinUa tells @HelsinkiComm via recorded video.
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So things aren’t going 2 plan 4 Putin .RU Army .1) sees massive casualties.2) surrendering in cases .3) getting captured .4) running out of gas on highways .5) confronted by elderly Ukrainian citizens who are ethnically Russian telling them to go home .6) morale is low
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You are not alone @ZelenskyyUa. You have at minimum 66 million with you. Moreover support among ordinary citizens abroad is stable & actually growing in some of global south. Also, for 1st time in months military intel strategists see a clear pathway to territorial reclamation
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4) Part of Zaluzhny’s brilliance was that he did not micro manage and allowed good leeway for his (even more experienced) generals to make battle plans (like in case of battle for Kyiv or so I am told). For this very reason he is likely to do well as diplomat for same reason.
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Again, it is NOT a about LANGUAGE or ETHNICITY 4 these people. They see Ukraine as theirs, see these cities as theirs & are well aware that they have not been repressed by mainly Russian speaking presidents. Russian ethnic Donetsk friends now send sms “Ukraine above all” 4/8.
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8) I think a coherant logic is more likely. Ze & Zaluzhnyi disagree on key things related to the battle plan but not on major things in grand scheme. They still are on same team. There really shouldn’t be a doubt about this. Unity in the face of threat has & will prevail/ed.
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BIG NEWS I can finally share at @UoMPolitics @uomsoss @UoMNews we are launching a NEW main curriculum!!! Politics Dept. course:. “Ukraine Rises”. Supported by The Petro Jacyk Foundation with guest seminars & a Keynote Lecture in Contemporary Ukrainian Politics!. 💪🇺🇦🎓. 👇🧵
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I'm extremely (!!) proud of @OfficialUoM! UoM has set up an 5 million GBP emergency fund 2 support students & scholars fleeing war in #Ukraine. Will provide new student scholarships & will actively support #CouncilforAtRiskAcademics fellowships! 1/3
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Difficult but important presentation by @Kasparov63 @coenatolin . He says we should have no illusions about Putinism ending before the Ukrainian flag flies in Crimea. „We have to start thinking of winning the war”. Undoubtedly a major supporter of Ukraine and its victory.
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It’s official we (Henry Hale & I) have a cover & more than 8 years of research is culminating in a book #TheZelenskyyEffect @UoMPolitics @uomsoss @UoMNews @ponarseurasia @IERES_GWU thank you to @HurstPublishers @MikeDwyerMike for believing in the project.
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7) & now folks are saying that Zaluzhnyi as new ambassador is being sent to the post because he is not close enough to Ze, wasn’t willing to follow his orders, and the post is one of obscurity. The logic doesn’t work in both directions.
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Of all the memes. Coming out right now. This one has to be one of the best. If only. “Volodia we have good news/bad news. I can confirm we have a ride for you. But it’s straight to The Hague.”
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Umerov used his business successes to support 🇺🇦 civic engagement & civil society 4 some time & proved 2 be a skillful political player. Whilst coming in at a difficult time in ongoing 🇺🇦 offensive against 🇷🇺 occupation if anyone’s FULLY committed 2 total liberation it’s him. 8/8.
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A year ago I was interviewed about “Why do #Ukrainians take to the streets?” Explaining the long history of #protest & how activist saw it as an evolution not revolution. This backgrounder helps us understand why we see fierce #resistance now full video
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It’s official @channelljustice’s @HURI_Harvard amazing book #WithoutTheState is out - buy it online! Just ordered my copy!.An important book on #Ukraine .@darelasn @mdyczok @OxanaShevel @PopovaProf @tanyalokot @olgarithmic @VolodymyrKulyk4 @GwendolynSasse @TarasKuzio pass it on
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So this is an unwinable strategy. It will not end in any sort of peace or even stalemate but will result in a protracted conflict. When you don’t win over people & continue 2 sustain casualties + face sanctions without economic benefitof territory you only gain more problems 8/8.
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Retired Lt Gen @GlenGrant on @BBCNews . "People need to be clear - what the US is trying to do is get Ukraine to capitulate," he says. "To give in to Russia. ”. "The reason for that is quite simple. Trump is unable to – or perhaps unwilling to – do anything against Russia…”.
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Fantastic creativity. Potesters in Hrodna watch 4 flag “Who? Me? Im not protesting Im driving”. When regime tries 2 repress authentic resistance dominated by ordinary citizens u see innovation & creativity & acts of resistance will keep popping up #Belarus #BelarusProtest
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These initial Defections might be symbolic but they inspire and give strength. Key sign just how widespread support for protest is.
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