Neha Singhal Trader
@nsinghal211
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Founder of https://t.co/uiNvLFoMak Trader | Investor | Scalper
Joined October 2023
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21) The IndiGo mess is more than one airline’s bad week. It exposes: • Over-dependence on a single carrier • Fragility in crew scheduling • The cost of ignoring fatigue & safety planning If we don’t fix the structure, this will happen again – maybe with another airline.
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20) And what about us – the passengers? 1️⃣ Always check flight status before leaving home – especially this week. 2️⃣ Prefer morning flights where possible – they recover faster from network shocks. 3️⃣ Keep buffer time for critical events (weddings, exams, intl connections).
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19) What should airlines (other than IndiGo) do? • Don’t exploit the crisis with crazy fares – regulators are already watching. • Use this moment to showcase reliability & service. • But also be honest about capacity; over-stretching can create “crisis 2.0” in another
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18) What should the Government & DGCA do? 1️⃣ Keep FDTL safety rules non-negotiable – don’t dilute pilot rest to fix an airline’s bad planning. 2️⃣ Impose meaningful penalties if negligence is proven – enough to hurt, but not to collapse capacity. 3️⃣ Build early-warning systems:
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17) What should IndiGo do now? (My take) 1️⃣ Radical transparency – daily dashboard on: cancellations, on-time %, refund progress. 2️⃣ Compensation beyond rules – vouchers/loyalty miles for stranded pax; proactively rebook on other airlines where possible. 3️⃣ Roster reset – hire
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16) Who is to blame? Honest breakdown • Regulator/Govt – introduced stricter FDTL (good for safety) but arguably underestimated execution risk in a market dominated by one airline. • IndiGo management – had months of notice, still didn’t ramp crews/rosters properly and
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15) Financially, IndiGo still has: • Strong cash position • Large order book for new aircraft • Dominant market share So the company won’t die from this, but the brand damage + regulatory anger is real. Some analysts see stock as “buy on dips”; others warn of more
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14) IndiGo’s official line & “future plan” The airline says it’s: • Running a “reboot schedule” – cancelling more flights now to stabilise the rest • Targeting ~1,500 flights/day & 95%+ network restoration in the near term • Aiming for full normalcy between Dec 10–15 (as
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13) Airports & infrastructure pain Major hubs like Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai saw: • Congested terminals • Strain on CISF, ground staff, airline counters • Operational knock-on delays even for on-time airlines The Federal+1 Railways even added extra
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12) Other airlines: winners or victims? Short-term: • Air India, Vistara, Akasa, SpiceJet, Air India Express see higher load factors, strong demand. • Some introduced change-fee waivers to absorb disrupted travellers. mint+1 Medium-term: • They gain market share if they
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11) Fare caps to stop price exploitation With IndiGo cutting capacity, fares on other airlines shot up. Govt stepped in and capped domestic airfares for now. Reported ranges include: • ~₹12,000 cap for 500–1,000 km • ~₹15,000 cap for 1,000–1,500 km sectors
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10) Govt & regulator response: what changed? 1️⃣ Show-cause notice to IndiGo’s CEO 2️⃣ Strict directions to: • Refund all cancelled tickets within set timelines • Return all separated baggage within 48 hrs 3️⃣ Close monitoring of how fast IndiGo restores network.
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9) Direct daily loss ≈ combo of: • Lost revenue from cancelled sectors • Refunds + rebooking + hotel/food in some cases • Higher operational cost to “reboot” schedules Analysts note IndiGo is financially strong overall, but this episode will dent quarterly earnings and
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8) How big is the financial damage for IndiGo (so far)? • Stock down ~7–10% in about a week as cancellations mounted. • Market sentiment turned sharply negative, with warnings of more downside if normalcy is delayed.
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7) Who is suffering the most? 1️⃣ Passengers – cancelled holidays, missed weddings, job interviews, medical appointments. 2️⃣ Airports – overcrowding, angry crowds, stretched staff. 3️⃣ Other airlines’ passengers – they see higher fares & fuller flights because IndiGo’s capacity
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6) What did passengers face? • 100s–1000+ flights cancelled on peak days • Last-minute SMS/emails • Long queues at check-in & rebooking desks • People sleeping on airport floors • Sky-high last-minute fares on other airlines This is days of life + money wasted for ordinary
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5) DGCA’s core allegation: The primary cause of disruptions was “non-provisioning of adequate arrangements to cater to the revised requirements” of the FDTL scheme – i.e., this wasn’t a surprise rule; IndiGo didn’t prepare.
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4) Who is officially being held responsible? India’s aviation regulator DGCA has issued a show-cause notice to IndiGo’s CEO, Pieter Elbers saying, in simple words: “You failed to plan for these rules and to ensure reliable operations for passengers.”
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3) Most airlines quietly adjusted rosters & capacity. IndiGo, however, allegedly: • Didn’t add enough pilots • Didn’t redesign schedules in time • Still expanded routes (incl. international) Result: once new rules hit, there simply weren’t enough rested, legal-to-fly pilots
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2) How did this start? (Short answer: FDTL + bad planning) India introduced stricter Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules to reduce pilot fatigue – more rest, fewer night landings. Airlines knew about this well in advance. Implementation finally kicked in 2025.
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