Neil Lareau
@nplareau
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Prof. of Atmos Sci. @unevadareno . Mountain WX, Wildfire Plumes, Backcountry Skiing, Frontcountry Dadding. Formerly: @SJSUmeteorology @UUtah @Livermore_Lab @MWObs
Truckee, CA
Joined December 2009
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It just won't stop. Canada realized its most intense episode of fire growth to date (as shown by accumulated FRP), never-mind that it happened on a date after which every previous season (in the MODIS record) had slowed to a trickle...
#pyrocene
#canadianwildfires
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Anyone else have reviewers tell them they should use Python instead of MATLAB? This seems out of line in a review, IMO.
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Update (6/12/2023): Continued extreme and widespread fire activity propel the
#CanadianWildfires
season total Fire-Radiative Power (FRP) into uncharted terrain (for 2000-2023 satellite record). So much fire, so much smoke, and so much fire season yet to come.
#pyrocene
The 2023 Canadian fire season is like no-other in the satellite record (2000-pres). Here are the accumulated fire-radiative power (FRP) curves, with 2023 (magenta) in a league of its own. Note that smoke production is proportional to FRP. (data= MODIS, results= prelim)
#pyrocene
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The 2023 Canadian fire season is like no-other in the satellite record (2000-pres). Here are the accumulated fire-radiative power (FRP) curves, with 2023 (magenta) in a league of its own. Note that smoke production is proportional to FRP. (data= MODIS, results= prelim)
#pyrocene
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3D NEXRAD radar reconstruction of the
#McKinneyFire
's impressive nocturnal
#pyroCb
early Sat AM. Image shows a deep, nearly vertical, pyrometeor laden updraft (deep reds) reaching to ~12 km as well as the descending "ashfall" region that extends downwind from the updraft core.
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Deepening of the secondary low is well-evidenced in this afternoon's satellite loop. Great week to be teaching about cyclone structure and dynamics
@UNRScience
!
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1/n: With the onset of active cool-season weather across Canada in late Sept., the off-switch for the superlative 2023 fire-season has been finally been thrown. The season started early, ended late, and exceeded the previous maximum by a factor of 4.
#pyrocene
#canadianwildfires
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Summary of Canada's off-the-charts season-to-date accumulated Fire Radiative Power. Now more than triple the previous high-mark in the MODIS satellite period of record (2000-Present).
#CanadianWildfires
#Pyrocene
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Newest numbers for Canada's season-to-date accumulated FRP (sum of instantaneous values), showing the continued absurdity of this year's combined fire size and intensity.
#Pyrocene
#Canadianwildfires
Updating Canada's season-to-date accumulated FRP (sum of instantaneous values) once again to capture recent additional fire growth following modest slow down. Will have to adjust axes soon...
#canadianwildfires
#pyrocene
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A number of folks have posted similar obs, but here are two pressure traces showing the
#HungaTongaHungaHaapai
shock wave observed at UNR in Reno and UoU in Salt Lake City this morning. The SLC data seem to show subsequent oscillations (sloshing) in the valley cold pool.
#UTwx
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Following a devastating week of destructive fires in
#BritishColumbia
, here is the updated Canadian season-to-date accumulated Fire-Radiative Power (FRP). It really looks like tripling the previous high mark is possible. That is nuts.
#Pyrocene
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As noted by others (
@mn_storm
) the lookers right flank is producing anticyclonic rotation. Earlier the lookers left flank had cyclonic rotation.
#RiverFire
.
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So what are the rules when some one abandons their Tesla in your yard after sliding off the road? You get to keep it right ;)
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I did not know it could be this green in September in the Sierra. Grasses and fine fuels still look like spring at 7000 ft. (Not everywhere mind you… definitely elevation and aspect dependent)
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I think a lot about counter-rotating vortex pairs (CVPs) in wildland fire. But you find these CVPs everywhere that flow splits around an obstacle. Here, you can see the snow scouring in the vortices, and the deposition extending downstream in the confluent wake.
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Gotta say, the outlook for the
#CaldorFire
is not good. With fire established on both sides of 50 east of
#Strawberry
and crescendoing SW winds for the next 48 hrs (including at night) it is hard to imagine scenarios in which it doesn't make a run toward Hwy 89 south of
#Meyers
.
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NEXRAD rendering of the
#MosquitoFire
plumes at 707 PM on 9/8/2022 during the vortex signature. There are two plume cores, one on the SE run (the cyclonic vortical one) and a narrow plume off the NE branch (close to where we were). Will add fire data and time sequence later...
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Looking back at the
#CreekFire
's big run up to Mammoth Pool: Here is a radar animation of the explosive
#pyroCb
plume development. This plume was massive, producing multiple pushes above 12 Km.
#CAwx
#CAfire
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For folks near the
#TamarackFire
today (e.g.,
#Gardnerville
): If you experience
#ashfall
from the plume we'd love photos of the ash with an object for scale (coin). These
#CitizenScience
data will help us understand radar data from wildfire plumes such as this (last night).
#NVwx
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Sobering day in the Sierra following the avalanche at Palisades. Had the chance to stroll around the hills with friends, which revealed a rotten snowpack and non-stop whumphing, indicative of widespread instability. Quick hand pits revealed the culprit facets.
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Strong orographic enhancement and suppression in Hillary’s the easterly flow across the terrain of Northern Baja California. Flow-topography interaction will play a big role today for focusing precipitation impacts across the southwest.
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Radar volume rendering of the
#AppleFire
plume at ~6PM on 1 August. Note the deep core of high reflectivity, then the descending region of ash fall out (red isosurface). Plume was pushing >30Kft at this time.
#CAfire
#CAwx
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Watching this devastating video you can see the telltale signs of a downslope windstorm with strong near-surface flow overtopped with much weaker and sometimes recirculating winds. We've seen this time and time again: downslope wind storms are drivers of the highest impact fires.
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Looks mostly like summer at lake level, but more like winter in the desolation wilderness
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Reconstruction of the radar and satellite detected plume and fire hot spots in
#Lahaina
. An aspect of this disaster to probe is the surprising north-south fire extent despite the strong east-to-west winds. Possible oscillation in the island wake contributing to this spread?
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More radar analysis: Clear evidence for the plume bifurcation characteristic of the counter rotating plume elements.
#CalWoodFire
#COwx
#COfire
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After a brief pause in wildfire activity last week, the Canadian year-to-date accumulated instantaneous Fire-Radiative Power curve continues its climb into the record books.
#CanadianWildfires
#Pyrocene
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Still digging into the
#CreekFire
plume/vortex evolution. Can we call this a hook echo? I'm going with yes. Left shows reflectivity, right radial velocity. Averaged over ~1 hr (23-24 UTC). Right also shows vortex centers ID'd from individual times.
#CAwx
#FireWxIsExtremeWx
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Long field day on the
#mosquitofire
but hats off to
@FireWeatherLab
&
@UNRScience
students for a successful day of radar/lidar plume obs. It’s not easy: finding locations, overcoming adversities, and walking away with a pile of data that will drive the science forward.
#CalFIDE
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Preposterous quantities of fire in Northern Alberta and NWT contributing to skyrocketing season-to-date accumulated FRP for Canada. Will we triple previous satellite derived records?
#Canadianwildfires
#pyrocene
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Beautiful example of the positive feedbacks (i.e., non-linear processes) that allow a low-amplitude digging short-wave trough to explode into a record breaking cyclone in <24 hours!
#bombogenesis
Flying along with the jet stream to the landfall of the meteorological bomb
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My favorite thing about the iPad/iPencil is that it has upped my doodling while on phone calls game....
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Totally different breed of
#pyrocumulus
over CA this afternoon. These shallow clouds are likely caused by the heating of the top of the smoke layer by solar radiation, rather than fire-driven updrafts.
#CAwx
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A banana slug warning has been issued for the Santa Cruz mountains…. ( am I the only one that sees slugs when I look at the core segments?)
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Getting real in wildfire country... I've already been dropped, but we're going to have to recon with this on some higher level as a society... it's not an option for people to just not live in these localities.
State Farm is about to drop 30,000 policies in certain California ZIP codes. This map reveals if you live in one of them.
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Thinking back to the devastating Western US fires in Sept. 2020 and comparing that year's profoundly dry root-zone soil moisture (Sept 2020) to the remarkably wet present (Sept 2023). (Data from NASA GRACE: )
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Radar volume rendering of today's explosive
#pyroCb
from the
#DixieFire
. As the
@AlertWildfire
videos show, rapid growth of the lookers left plume after the first
#pyroCb
pulse. Outflow from the former to the latter could have been a contributor.
#CAwx
#CAfire
#FireWxIsExtremeWx
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Christmas came a few days early! Feeling grateful, privileged, and honored to cross this milestone.
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Gusts moving across Donner Lake this afternoon. Usually when it’s this windy in September I’m in a heightened state of alert for potential fast moving wildfires. Not feeling that stress this year!
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Want to know more about rotating pyro-convective plumes? Check out our new paper in
@IJWildlandFire
:
.
These data were collected during a
#FASMEE
Rx fire in 2019 in the
@FishlakeNF
of Utah with
@FireWeatherLab
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Crazy watching the influx of research interest, people, and $ into the previously-neglected world of fire weather/behavior. Part of me feels defensive about it, but really this is great. Bring it on. More minds, more tools, more progress. And for no reason, a plume animation:
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The GFS-based ensemble snowfall amounts for Thursday evening-> Sunday over the Sierra Crest (e.g.,
@UCB_CSSL
) are eye popping (almost runs >50", many>100"). A long way out and should be treated with normal skepticism, but has the ingredients to be a significant snowfall event.
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Really sad. Had hoped (against hope I guess) for a stop as the fire descended from the terrain. It’s only July 10th…
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We're now in the phase of the storm with strong confluent frontogenetical forcing for ascent draped across the northern Sacramento Valley and the North-Central Sierra. Not something we regularly see.
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I’ve really come to love my commute along the Truckee River. Always something beautiful along the way…
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#CastleFire
in the southern Sierra (near Camp Nelson) is one of the more active fires today, with most others shading themselves out. East wind component driving it back upslope to the west.
#CreekFire
still consuming acreage too.
#CAfire
#CAwx
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Fire's and hydraulic jumps...a surprisingly common feature of high impact fires. There really needs to be a whole book chapter about this some day.
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330 AM PDT IR mapping for the
#CaldorFire
showing fire poised to make a further run to the east, descending from Echo Summit today. Unrelenting west and southwest winds and low humidity in the forecast.
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A pictorial guide to why weather is more effective than humans at suppressing fire.
#VLAT
for scale. (Taking nothing away from the heroics of the fire fight and it’s success at protecting structures).
#mosquitofire
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It’s 8:30 pm, and the
#CreekFire
is producing yet another anticyclonic tornado strength vortex.
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11,000 ft snow levels with the current very heavy precipitation over the northern Sierra, as observed at the Oroville Radar Wind profiler.
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