Nordicmagic
@nordicmagic
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Private investor | Mainly small & micro cap 🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇴🇩🇰
Helsinki, Suomi
Joined February 2013
Peter Lynch - One up on Wallstreet My vote for ”the stockpicker’s bible”, after reading it the second time, key takeaways 👇
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Codemill offer (23 kr). Only problem do not own stocks anymore😬 https://t.co/Khq4bMG2ae
☀️Summer case: Codemill 🇸🇪☀️ EV: 167 MSEK Cash: 27,5 MSEK (10 MSEK, Q1 2023) Debt: 2,4 MSEK TTM EV/ FCF: 9,5 CAGR Sales growth 3y: 29% Requrring revenue > 40% Product: Software to optimze video workflow & consulting Customers: Amazon, Apple, Google, Sony etc.
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Valuation EV/FCF < 10 for a high growth animal might be low, but we probably need a few quarters/years to see if Codemill can continue to grow cash flows. Disclaimer: Long, no investment advise🙂
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ROIC / Scalability The consulting side focus on getting more recurring revenue. (Software). Therefore if growth continues this should scale well.
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Management New CEO started in Autumn -23, too esrly to say but she had a fanastic started and maybe we need to give a bit of credit for the results
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Risks Depedent on large customers (Amazon is big customer) Utilization of consulting services (still < 50% reccuring revenue) Potential new competitors/technologies
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Competition / Moat Sure there is a lot and will be ( not an expert in this field), but based on customer base it shows some competitve advantges. Also stickiness since some customers integrate the software into their system that makes it more difficult to change
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☀️Summer case: Codemill 🇸🇪☀️ EV: 167 MSEK Cash: 27,5 MSEK (10 MSEK, Q1 2023) Debt: 2,4 MSEK TTM EV/ FCF: 9,5 CAGR Sales growth 3y: 29% Requrring revenue > 40% Product: Software to optimze video workflow & consulting Customers: Amazon, Apple, Google, Sony etc.
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2023 Another learning year 👨🔧 Happy New Year and a wishing everybody a successful 2024🐂
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A lot of hype of Modulights FDA approval. Company has already FDA approval for certain treatments, but have not been able to make them fly. IPO material 👇. Paperwork and selling is different things. Latest case depends fully on Bausch + Lomb intentions, let's hope for the best🙂
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Stora Ensons China exit has started👍 Translation to press release: We do not want to do business with Dictators (that co-operate with Russia) Other companies to follow, the sooner the better... https://t.co/S2OeaCNOF3
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Elliptic Labs signed a new major PC deal. Significant event since it is the first major non-China deal. Have sold my position earlier since I do not want to be dependent on China. 2023 EL profits will be mostly dependent on Chinese PC/Phones. https://t.co/2RpbLq8M9d
⏰ Update: Elliptic laboratorities 2021 on track: 💻 First PC contract with one of the top 3 (HP, Lenovo or Dell) 📱New and extended mobile customers 🎙New verticals entering production (Bosch) Company guiding 2021 positive EBITDA and 10 x Sales growth until end of 2023 1/6
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Is small companies buying private planes for employees? Lumibird 🇫🇷 2021 Annual report (Looked like an interesting case, but this too much 😅)
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Conclusion (9/9) ▪️ Could we have a repricing when financials get “more visible” 2023? ▪️ Now priced at ~EV/EBIT ~9 (2021 and E2022) and 8 (E2023) ▪️Dividend Payout ratio is >50%, meaning now a >5% Dividend yield, even 6-7% ▪️Finns are dividend lovers Disclaimer: Long
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Risks (8/9) -A major cyber treat that F-Sec would fail to handle -Spin off agreement with WithSecure (Parent company). F-Secure needs to establish during 18 months certain functions that remains at WithSecure. Limit risk now when companies have same major owners.
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Costs (7/9) ▪️4-5 M€ have been guided as cost increase due to demerger. ▪️Resulting in a guidance of 40%/42% EBITA margin 2022/2023. ▪️With (low guidance) 5% Sales growth we are now paying abt. 11 x free cash flow 2022 and 10 x free cash flow 2023 (EV/EBIT abt. 9 and 8)
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Growth opportunities (6/9) At current price level, not really any growth is included in the valuation. However, there is several growth initiatives that can give positive upsides to the stock. Currently growth is driven by increasing ARPU with existing customers.
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Competition (5/9) ▪️Customers willing to pay for cybersecurity is increasing. Competition remains still tough. ▪️ For CSP’s it is complicated to change security provider -> focus on increasing ARPU with the current provider. ▪️ Note👇 Kaspersky, Russian -> to be replaced
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